Baylor vs Utah

[BUBearsFan]

I’m looking forward to football and the BU vs Utah game. I’ll be watching for your predictions and analysis. From me, the key for BU is QB play. Shapen was electric when he was inserted in 2021, because of a Brewer (you know him) concussion. Shapen beat OSU in the championship game by a couple inches. 2022 was a huge drop off. He panicked in the pocket, took sacks instead of throwing the ball away, fumbled, and ran out of bounds/slid yards before before getting hit (even on critical 3rd/4th downs). Mind numbing. RB will be an upgrade with addition of powerful OSU transfer. Receivers are more experienced with youth last year. TE room is great. OL a questionable even with pickup of the BYU Barrington brothers. D-line and secondary has to be better. Pre-season talk is always over-hyped. We’ll see.
Baylor didn’t use the transfer portal in 2022 because they wanted to be nice to existing players. Huge mistake with such a young team. This changed for 2023 with good pick-ups.
The 2022 team was the youngest (or next to) in the Big 12. They had a tremendous drop-off following being 2021 Big 12 champions and soundly beating Ole Miss in the Sugar Bowl. and the 2020 respectable loss (26-14 with Brewer leaving with another concussion) to Georgia in the 2020 Sugar Bowl.

Baylor vs OSU win by inches

[ALUF]

How do you see your season going this year? What do you make of all this realignment talk?

[BUBearsFan]

I just don’t know. I’ve been humbled with how fast you can go from great to bad. And I think the transfer portal creates a another unknown. I don’t buy the hype anymore because it’s too internally focused when the reality is that improvement only matters in relation to all other teams. If you move from bad to good you still lose if others move from good to best. :))

It’s fun to joke around about re-alignment but I don’t like it. I’d be happy if we we could go back about 13 years in the Big 12, perhaps minus Texas who caused the cancer to grow. The things that make college football fun are being destroyed. The 100+ year rivalries are being lost and you don’t replace those. All of this obvious loss has ripple effects. Some programs are in big jeopardy. It will even affect the economy of some cities/towns when teams have to step down to a lower conference or shut a program down. Yes some win but I think more lose than win. It’s not right. As for NIL, I agree the players should be paid but I don’t like the uneven payments. It’ll just separate the SEC and B1G even more in terms of money and playoffs/championships.

Regarding expansion, most Big 12 teams know the fear of re-alignment. There’s a positive mentality on the outside but a feeling of dread on the inside. Especially when you understand that on the field performance means nothing. It’s all viewership and money. I was quietly terrified the first time (Texas A&M, Missouri, Colorado, Nebraska) and worried a little less this time. I’m guessing like everyone about expansion. If I had to bet I’d put money on Arizona as the most conservative bet. Their “affinity” for the Big 12 (or its basketball??) comment spoke volumes I think. For Utah, it’s easy to sit on the outside and think, are they crazy!? But I understand the desire to stay in the space that you have ‘become’ and to keep that comfort level. For the Big 12, an AD made it clear that culture fit is key. I don’t know how the Big 12 fits with Utah either but my opinion, for the sake of the good Utah sports teams, is they should run to the front of the line with Yormark. There are few seats available. And bring your academic research experience to the Big 12 and promote more growth. The top Big 12 schools (total education versus pure research) are relatively strong in the rankings. Utah can always keep collaborating with ex PAC schools on the academic side.

[ProudUte]

I have enjoyed watching Bayor football over the years.  I was impressed with how you manhandled BYU in 2021.  You guys had a very good team.  However, in 2022 in Provo, you guys seemed to not trust the pass and went with your running game.  Initially, I thought BYU’s defense must be very good.  The next week we saw what Oregon did to BYU’s defense, so I began to wonder.

I think most Utah fans are much more nervous about the Baylor game than they are about Florida.  To me, it’s an unknown.  I suspect that the Bears will be very good.  I hope they stick with the run, because that will give Utah an advantage.

Utah’s defense should be very good.  We are at least two deep at each Dline position.  We have three linebackers with starting experience and 3-4 more who are very good.  We lost our All-American CB Phillips.   However, we picked up Battle (Mississippi St.) from the portal and we got two four-star recruits at CB.  We should be very good at safety.

Utah’s offense has a two-year starter at QB.  But, he is coming off major surgery from an injury in the Rose Bowl.  We have one of our two stud tight ends returning and a bunch of others who seem to be very good. (We pass a lot to our tight ends.)  Our RB room is loaded with experienced guys and some promising newcomers.  Our biggest weakness may be at wide receiver.  We have some experienced players, but they were not utilized much outside of Vele.  We did pick up a few guys from the portal including Pittman from FSU.

I suspect a hard-fought game that will likely be won in the trenches.

[BUBearsFan]

Several things about Baylor in 2022 that may be less known:

– During the Briles era, Baylor was a passing attack and like a video game; now Baylor is wide zone and wants to run the ball.
– BU was the youngest or next to youngest team in the Big 12; not really hitting the transfer portal after big attrition from 2021. Very big mistake by Aranda who conceded this point as he wanted to give his recruits the shot they were promised. This won’t happen again.
– Shapen was bad in 2022, but it has to be said that he didn’t have enough help at WR and RB.
– Several of the freshmen skill players (RB/WR) were VERY good but both struggled with injuries due to lack of depth/overuse. Richard Reese, running back, was the Big 12 offensive freshman of the year and National Finalist even after losing alot of playing time due to injuries.
– Locker room issues were allowed to became a cancer. It was obvious even early on. Nice, quiet Coach Aranda didn’t act but has now laid the law down. Defensive Coordinator fired and replaced by prior Baylor coach who left the year before to go to Oregon. Top defensive player kicked off the team a couple months ago for rules violation. The message has been sent and received.
– 2 games lost by only 4 points including against TCU (1 point) which was lost in the final 2 minutes by a ridiculous 3rd down slide by Shapen yards before the 1st down marker.

A couple Baylor upgrades for 2023:

– Backup QB, Sawyer Robertson, was a Mike Leach guy who transferred from Miss State. He has more upside potential than Shapen but he is shifting from air raid to wide zone.
– RB will be balanced between speed and power like in 2021. RB added from OSU averaged 4 yards a carry behind a bad O-line; he will alternate with Reese who is mentioned above. The rest of the room is stacked which takes pressure off of Shapen.
– Baldwin gets help at WR and with 2 good TE’s who will be used. This also takes pressure off of Shapen.
– Cornerbacks should be better and able to shift from lining up 10 yards off the line in zone to press coverage.

I watched your last year game against Florida, Oregon, and USC in the championship. But last year just doesn’t translate to this year. Too many moving parts. And I think the transfer portal makes it even harder to predict.

My top thoughts/wonders for this game:
– Will Shapen improve by even 25%, and can he avoid the dumb mistakes (surely it won’t get worse)?
– Will your star QB be ready? Or will he lack mobility? Will you have to rely some on the freshman backup (fr, right?).
– You mention potential for inexperienced wide receivers on your side; I prefer that with our unproven backfield.
– Like you said, this may be won or lost in the trenches; If Shapen isn’t protected, I’m biting my nails waiting on mistakes. If your QB isn’t 100%, I guess you could be worried about injuries or becoming more predictable and one dimensional.
– If either QB is not 100% in mind or body, running the ball will be important. This will be Baylor’s goal anyway and should be okay here. I simply don’t know this about your side but know your QB is a threat when able. But will he be for this game?

I watched a very good analysis about our team? I’m trying to find it. Please post any about yours.

[Yergensen]

Welcome! Kudos to our programs for scheduling P5 OOC and keeping the games while others are ducking competition. However, no doubt this is a tough game for both of us with little runway in front of it. IMO there’s hype around our team as well that needs to be tempered. We are notoriously slow starters. Cam Rising is coming off a knee injury. And our DL is still unproven to put it nicely.

Obviously both teams want the W. Regardless of outcome, I hope we both come out healthy and it springboards rest of season success. Best of luck and hope you can make it to SLC for next year’s game.

[BUBearsFan]

Yes this is a strong OOC series. I hope the playoffs allow more of this with more slots available. I never enter a Baylor season (except some Briles years and maybe 2021) with over-confidence. This is my most worried one in over a decade based on the 2021 setback. I assure you, what is gained can be lost in a hurry.

[Central Coast Ute]

Thank you for stopping by and offering your insights.

Personally, I am more worried about this game than any other game on the schedule outside of USC. they’re very talented and want revenge. Like USC, Utah has to play Baylor on the road this year and I’m sure it will be a hostile environment for the Utes. I know last year didn’t go as hoped for you guys but the year before was very good. My worry, at least for us is last year was a hiccup and you’ll be back to normal this year. On paper Utah should be better, especially if Rising is healthy. But as you said, it doesn’t matter if you’re better if everyone else improved beyond you.

[BUBearsFan]

Baylor was also inconsistent last year. They played TCU tight losing by 1 point in the last 2 minutes. But they didn’t show up in a couple games or else totally underwhelmed. This is a concern. I’m sick of the re-alignment crap and ready to play game 1 to see if I’ll be crying or smiling.

[BD]

I agree with others that are concerned about this game for Utah. Will be tough. There are some Ute fans that are over confident for this game.

Other than that, I don’t have much analysis to add.

Do us a favor and crush BYU every time they play you guys. LOL.

[UteFanatic]

Thanks for stopping by! Really looking forward to the first time matchup between Utah and Baylor. Another interesting element to this game, is this could potentially be a preview against a future conference opponent! For the record, I want Utah to join the Big12, I don’t think the Pac has a future at this point. Some fans on this board disagree, but that’s my take. I really hope we make it in, because there seems to only be a few slots left.

In terms of the game, Utah is a bit questionable at QB as well because of Rising’s recovery timeline. We really like Rising, he doesn’t put up gaudy numbers, but he is effective. He makes good decisions and his scrambling is a key element to our offense. If Rising isn’t ready to go, it will either be Brandon Rose or Nate Johnson. Both are talented dudes, but are unproven in actual gameplay. If either of these two start against Baylor, then expect a lot of typical Utah running and quick passes to our extremely talented TE, Brant Kuithe (who is also coming off an injury).

Utah’s RB game is solid. Ja’Quinden Jackson (transfer QB from Texas) has cemented himself as our RB1 and really came into form late last season. Behind him is a stable of talented guys, some proven, some not.

Defensively, Utah is pretty solid. Particularly at LB and secondary. D-line is good, but not as good as past years.

The key to this game for Utah is limiting explosive plays. Expect Utah to try to control the clock and wear down Baylor with our big O-line and run game. 

Should be a really good game. I am hesitant to predict a victory because Utah hasn’t been a great road team lately.

 

[D T]

Whoever can run the ball & control the clock most effectively wins the game….It’s really quite simple.

[DrJazzy]

Thanks for stopping by! Love interacting with passionate fans of other teams. 

Can’t believe you stuck us with Brewer. 

I just moved to B12 country (Dallas) and really hope at this point we can join y’all permanently in the B12. P12 leadership with Scott, GK has been an absolute joke. Your commish is pretty brilliant, his ideas to generate revenue are light years ahead of the Pac, and B12 has more passionate fans. I really hope Utah’s leadership is smarter than a lot of our fans – P9 is sunk. Gonzo. 

Good luck to your team this yr (except against the Utes). Keep crushing BYU – they have some good fans, but too many are an arrogant spiteful bunch who are all talk and bark.