Future Big 12 Top Teams

[Sanders]

Who would you guess will be the top four (25%) teams in the new Big 12 for the next few years? I would take Utah, TCU, Kansas State and UCF. I’m curious to hear your opinions.

[The Miami Ute]

I think that you have to throw Texas Tech and possibly Cincinnati into that mix as well. I would also include Colorado as long as Sanders is there and is able to draw 5-star recruits.

[ALUF]

It’s hard reading the future for me just with coaching and recruiting alone. I do compile numbers based on wins, recruiting, nfl draft picks, all-Americans, top 25 finishes heisman voting and of course national titles to see who the best program is over the last 5 years.

Currently this is my list of the future big xii with my national ranking

13) Cincy,made the cfp but with fickell gone they should drop? We will see

14) Utah, back to back Pac-12 champs and our ability to get nfl players boosted us

19) TCU, the run to the national title game boosted them for sure

24) baylor

25) Oklahoma state..honestly surprised me

32)byu-p…I really should just eliminate 2020, I bet it would fall off the edge

33) Iowa state, remember when their coach was looked at for Texas and usc?

34) Kansas state, defending big xii champs seem lower than they should

41) Houston

45) ucf, how are they lower than Houston will be a mystery that is unknown to me but 2017 I guess is now becoming further and further in the past. I do expect this one to jump

54) West Virginia

60) Texas tech, I expect this one to rise too

61) Arizona state, herm killed them

81) Colorado, this should be the most improved team of them all

95) Arizona, they’ll be right behind Colorado

109) Kansas, can they sustain their success from 2022?

[ALUF]

Sorry this is a bit messy but I would love to have input on how anyone would weight the above listed or if anyone has some other things to take into consideration

[PlainsUte]

Oklahoma State has been a perennial early season contender in the Big-12 but then they find a way to fade in the back half of the season so end up with some mediocre bowl game. With a lot of stability in the coaching positions they can build and develop players but the top players in the region have tended to opt for Texas or Oklahoma, so depth can be an issue for the Pokes. That said they never are a cellar-dweller and can’t be overlooked, especially in Stoolwater.

[Utah]

My only complaint is Cincinnati at 13. They were a G5 team. I fully expect them to fall hard the next few years. They don’t have any sort of foundation to sustain success. There is no reason for a kid from Ohio to go to Cincinnati.

[krindor]

I have a pretty good dataset where I track every P5 (and relevant G5) team’s success over the last decade. It’s basically scaled to represent how many games that team would win in an average season where they played 1 FCS team, 2 G5 teams, 3 low-end P5, 3 mediocre P5, and 3 good P5 teams

The current ranking for the last decade is

1. Oklahoma St (8.49)
2. Utah (8.24)
3. TCU (7.85)
4. Baylor (7.50)
5. Kansas St (7.20)
6. Houston* (7.18)
7. West Virginia (7.11)
8. Arizona St (6.75)
9. BYU (6.60)
10. Cincinnati* (6.47)
11. Texas Tech (6.20)
12. UCF* (6.11)
13. Iowa St (5.95)
14. Colorado (5.374)
15. Arizona (5.370)
16. Kansas (2.64)

*Due to a lack of P5 opponents, these numbers should be taken with some skepticism

That’s the past though – not the future. Given past success, recent trajectory, and ongoing recruiting classes, I feel like the clear top 3 are TCU, UCF, and Utah in some order. The 4th is tough and could have a couple of candidates

• Oklahoma St: This team has consistently been VERY good and seems the obvious choice…but is in some upheaval right now. TBD if they fall off a cliff or if this is just a blip.
• Kansas St: Years of doing more with less, and currently one of the best teams in the Big 12…but not sure I see a great avenue for them to continue in that role. That said, they haven’t had an avenue to do so before and they just keep doing it anyway
• Houston: An under the radar pick…but a great recruiting area and a school (and donors) that is happy to throw absurd amounts of money at the program. They could follow in UCF’s shoes
• BYU: BYU is unique and different with the LDS affiliation. Anytime you’re trying to assess who might stand out from the crowd, they have to be considered, just because they have different opportunities and things to offer (as compared to other schools)
• Texas Tech: The last traditional Texas school left in the Big 12 (TCU and Baylor are small, private, religious-ish schools; Houston is a new school built around a region more than drawing from all parts of the state). That gives them an upside that very few other schools have
• Colorado: How long does Deion stay and how well does it go? With how he’s been recruiting, Colorado has immense upside…but hard to say how lasting it (or Deion) is,
• Arizona: Absolutely an under the radar pick…but the things they’ve done in recruiting since the advent of NIL make it clear that they’re a serious player

Given all that, I think there’s going to be a lot of parity across the conference. I haven’t even mentioned Baylor, West Virginia, Arizona St or Cincy who all have done some good things but lack the upside to be a consistent top team in my mind. Besides Iowa St and Kansas (and even Kansas is getting better), every team though should absolutely be capable of seasons where they are in the discussion