Looks Like the Lincoln Riley Honeymoon is Over at USC

[The Miami Ute]

I took the pulse of some major USC outlets and was shocked by the ferocity of the language used against Riley. Seems like the honeymoon is over in LA. Biggest talking points were that all of the things Sooner fans told USC fans to expect about Riley and his teams (i.e. Some O-Line members not being able to bench 225, not practicing tackling during the summer, not practicing good nutritional habits, just having very soft teams in general. etc…) were starting to manifest itself at USC. If our defense can ball out next Saturday and contain Williams, we have a shot at winning.

[belli1976]

I don’t know Miami. Our offense is too pathetic.

[ALUF]

And it’s on the road against a ranked/bowl team

[The Miami Ute]

I get it…but I’ve watched most of USC’s games this year and it’s not the same team. They should have lost to Arizona last week and looked decidedly unimpressive against Colorado and ASU.

Besides Lloyd and Alexander, their portal additions have, at best, been borderline busts. They lost guys like Addison, Dye, Voorhees, etc..and the guys they brought in, aren’t as good.

And then there’s this: has anyone looked at the stats of the USC vs ND game? Notre Dame passed for 126 yards and rushed for 125 yards and still blew out USC. Sound familiar? Notre Dame did it with defense and coming up clutch on key plays throughout the game. In my view, Utah can do the same.

[NarfUte]

Same mindset as you Miami. Riley needed to address the trenches and he did not. Plus, they aren’t as talented at the skill positions

[The Miami Ute]

You’re right. They brought in Dorian Singer, who was #2 in receiving yards in the PAC last year with Arizona, and he’s been an utter bust (14 catches for 179 yards this season).

How’s that career move to set you up for the NFL working out for you Dorian?

They have the freshman, Zachariah Branch, who looked great versus G5 teams but has mostly disappeared as the season has progressed. He also has only 15 catches in the season.

Mario Williams, Tahj Washington, and Brenden Rice have been productive at times but none of them come close to being the threat that Jordan Addison was.

MarShawn Lloyd (the South Carolina transfer) is good at RB but Austin Jones has been missing the entire season (missing as in present but not doing much of anything). Neither of those guys are as good as one Travis Dye, who could do it all (run, catch, and block).

In closing, if anyone really wants to do a deep dive on USC, they have a few holes that can definitely be exploited. I think having Williams at QB has kind of camouflaged their issues but now the spell is wearing off. I could definitely see that during the game versus Zona and Notre Dame brought it front and center. Utah has a chance and it’s not a “one percent chance.”

[22Ute22]

The most important thing will be scheme imo. I’ve said on here that Utah needs to go with 6 DB’s, 1 LB, and 4 D-Lineman, only to be downvoted because “our defense is fine”. Imo, 5 DB’s will lose us the game. Notre Dame might not have as good of a pass rush as us, but they have much better CB’s and it’s not particularly close. An extra DB for coverage will be needed imo, even thought it would suck to keep Reid or Barton off the field.

[2008 National Champ]

Did you watch the SC-Notre Dame game? Notre Dame ran what looked like exactly the same game plan Utah did in the CCG. They didn’t need to put 7 DB’s in the game any more than Utah does.

Arizona has very bad linebackers, especially in coverage. They came up with a workaround based on the strengths of their roster. Utah has great linebackers who are very adept in coverage.

I just don’t know why you want to sit all-conference players for backups

[CityCreekUte]

I want to drink this Kool-Aid so bad.

[The Miami Ute]

I think the problem is that people on this site haven’t been watching USC this year and they have this mental image of last year’s USC team. Believe me when I say it, it’s not the same team. Arizona and ND held Williams to essentially 200 yards passing in their games (and the Zona game went to 3OTs) and Williams just hasn’t played as well this year. I’m not saying that Utah is going to win versus USC next Saturday but they certainly have a chance.

[ALUF]

I agree that usc isn’t where they were last year but where we have had very little success in the road in recent years against bowl teams let alone ranked teams in not counting on it. I very much want to believe though

[BoiseUTE]

I have watched a lot of the USC games and they are lucky to only have one lose. They should have lost to AZ and look terrible against ND and it defense. I think it will be a tough game with our offense, but bring on the defense and just pressure Williams all the time and keep make his frustrated. He sure didn’t look like a Heisman winner. I would say he is now out for a repeat.

[Ghost of the HEB]

I’m just not confident the offense will look any better than what we saw at Baylor and OSU

[The Miami Ute]

Belief is a wise wager. Granted that victory cannot be guaranteed, what harm will come to you if you gamble on its happening and it proves false? If you gain, you gain all; if you lose, you lose nothing. Wager, then, without hesitation, that Utah can win.

[Central Coast Ute]

I like the way you think, Miami. I just wouldn’t put any money on it.

[DrahtUte]

I’ve only watched bits and pieces of USC games this year but every time I do I see them do something dumb. They might have all the talented players in the world, but they seem to still find ways to screw up.

At least, that’s what I’m hanging my hopes on this week.

[The Miami Ute]

I personally think that they’re less talented than last year and that defenses have adjusted to how Williams plays QB. What I’ve seen the last few weeks is defenses rushing five guys and playing man to force Williams to make decisions quickly and under duress. Sometimes those decisions have worked for Williams and sometimes they’ve been disastrous. That philosophy worked for Arizona and ND the last two weeks and here’s the proof…Williams already has the same number of interceptions this year that he had all of last season.

[Charlie]

I agree, I go the the U games and watch the Az games. I also watched several USC games this year. USC was better last year. In addition, teams are learning how to defend Williams in Riley’s plan. USC will be easier than Oregon, Washington and OSU. But the randomness of football has a high beta so uncertainty plays a part. I think the key is to speed Williams up, make him think, make him throw into coverage, limit his access to open space. Outside of Williams, most teams can deal with USC. I wonder why I don’t see the use of a spy following Williams side to side on the other side of the LOS, on and off more often. If Williams does not often get to open space on broken pass plays, USC loses their primary weapon.

Will Utah see a USC team that has come together, is p**sed and intent on not getting embarrassed? Or will they see a USC team that is struggling to work together? I expect the trend of the last few weeks to continue for USC which is downward.

[The Miami Ute]

Charlie, you’re a poet and don’t even know it. Great analysis. That is indeed the way to play USC’s offense. If you can keep Williams confined to the pocket, speed up his decision making process, and not provide him escape hatches where he can create demoralizing chunk plays, he can make mistakes.

The problem with being in a place like LA, with so many diversions, and being in a team coached by a someone with the laissez-faire personality of a Riley, is that it’s hard to flip the switch and come together when you need to.

It’s just a feeling, but I have the sensation that the beating that Notre Dame administered will leave psychological scars on USC’s psyche. We’ll see what happens on Saturday.

[ryynoo]

Another big piece to USC struggles this year is their lack of turnover advantage. Last year they had an insane number of turnovers go in their favor, most attributed to luck, not defensive skill. John Wilner has pointed this out several times that when they came back to earth it it would change things significantly.

[The Miami Ute]

Excellent point. So far this year, USC has only created 8 turnovers, tied for 77th in the nation with a bunch of other teams, while giving up 7 turnovers of their own. Last year, they created 27 defensive turnovers while only having 7 offensive turnovers during the entire 2022 campaign.

[2008 National Champ]

As long as Utah’s D holds SC under 28 points, they can win. The offense has to get the job done, but that’s pretty much the threshold.

Against Oregon, the D is going to have to hold them to 17 or less.

[The Miami Ute]

Being that Rice-Eccles is going to be an insane asylum for the Oregon game, I think that will be the easier task of the two.

[2008 National Champ]

RES won’t be any louder than Husky stadium was yesterday and Nix has been playing in tough environments his whole college career. The stadium gauge read over 120 decibels pretty consistently when Oregon was on offense with a high of 131 – if you can believe the gauge.

Oregon will make mistakes and it looks like both of their starting CB’s were dinged up. I’m just of the belief that the Utah offense we saw against CAL can put up 4 TD’s against SC. I’m not sure they can get to 3 against Oregon. 2 TD’s, 2 FG’s and hope the D holds them under 20. I said before the season that I thought Utah would beat SC and lose at home to Oregon and that’s pretty much how things are shaping up right now.

[EagleMountainUte]

USC defense is worst than last year somehow.
Williams looks out of shape. I think teams have figured out how to tackle him. You don’t arm tackle him. You go through him perfect form tackling.
The ND stats are misleading because the amount of turnovers. It isn’t indicative of potential success imo.

USC Oline is bad. Like Swiss cheese lazy bad. So this may mean Williams forces a bunch of stuff again.

It is hard to compare the SC at ND because it is a rivalry road game.

[The Miami Ute]

Yeap Eagle, a lot of the comments I read or heard from pro-USC analysts were concentrated around the lack of performance of the OL. I think that Utah will be able to move the ball and score points off USC. The only teams this season that really haven’t are Nevada and Stanford, and USC played Stanford early in the season when it was a different team. So, if Utah can contain USC and force Williams to become greedy, impatient, or play hero ball, the defense has the chance to make some plays. Again, I’m not saying that Utah is going to win for a number of reasons (away game, USC has their CCG/CFP hopes against the wall, revenge for last year, etc…) but it’s not going to be a blowout like a bunch of USC fans were telling me at the start of the season.

[ryynoo]

I think he is lazy too. Or spends too much time making commercials.

[Red Rhino]

It seems to me that once players get their cash, the fire, that used to make college football great, goes out of players. It’s hard to get the horse moving once you’ve given him the carrot.

[The Miami Ute]

My dad used to tell me that not all change was progress. There’s no greater proof of that than a guy like Dorian Singer. Singer, in his infinite wisdom, transferred from Arizona to USC after the 2022 season (it also sounded like Utah was in the mix to get him). Since then, he’s gone from being a 1st team All-PAC 12 receiver, a possible high NFL draft pick and a legitimate candidate for the Biletnikoff Award to USC’s fourth and sometimes fifth option at wide receiver. This despite being fully healthy the entire season and playing in every game. I don’t know what he’s getting from House of Victory (the USC NIL collective) but it sure better be in the millions to supplement the future NFL money that he’s lost by moving from Arizona to USC.