Realistic Average?

[utetastic]

What do you think would be a realistic average for Utah to place in the Pac 12 over a 5 year period? (1-12)

[chinngiskhaan]

Based on previous years, I would say a reasonable average would be somewhere around 4th place in the Pac12. If that is our average finish, I’m not calling for the coach to be fired. There will be some years where we finish higher, and some where we finish lower. We would be at least in the conversation for the NCAA tourney every year.

Most years one or both of Oregon and Arizona will finish ahead of us, along with one other school. That is how I see it.

If our 5 year average is anything less than 5, I’m a very unhappy basketball fan. We should NEVER have a season where we don’t at least win a couple of road games.

[utetastic]

Interesting take. Thank you. 

We finished 3rd in 2018-19, tied for 3rd in 17-18, 4th in 16-17, 2nd in 15-16, and tied for 2nd in 14-15.

That is a 5 year average of 2.8. So about a 3rd place average.

This year is clearly a bad year. If we finish 10th which is where we sit right now that comes out for a 5 year average of 4.4 for 15-16 to 19-20. Which is close to your “somewhere around 4th place” statement.

I hope things turn around next year.

 

[utefansince79]

While 0-9 is really rock bottom, one should remember this is the strongest our league has been in a while with no less than 7 teams projected (including one to the first four in Dayton) to make the tourney.

 

 

[chinngiskhaan]

Yeah, if we get back in the 1-4 range next year, I’ll be happy with where the program is going. While I wouldn’t be disgusted with an average rank of 4th in the conference, I think we certainly can do better, as the team has proven.

I don’t see us ever usurping Oregen as the best team in the conference, not for more than 1 season at a time anyways… Altman has our coach’s number, and I’ve learned to accept that. They always seem to have one guy that ruins it for us when we are close to winning the whole thing. Joe Young, Dillon Brooks, their point guard now, I can’t remember his name for some reason.

I don’t see any of our current top 5 players transferring (Jones, plummer, Allen, Jantunen, Carlson). I hope Gach stays because I think, even if he never gets his shooting touch back, he is still dangerous as a defender and a slasher. Battin is basically useless, if he transfers I don’t think anyone would notice or care. As long as one of Thioune or MVK stays we should be set. I honestly wouldn’t care if the rest of them transferred tomorrow. None of those other guys are ever going to see the floor in meaningful minutes for us.

Next year’s rotation:

Jones/Martinez/Gach
Martinez/Plummer/Larsson/Gach
Lohner/Gach/Larsson/Allen
Allen/Jantunen
Carlson/Thioune or MVK

As you can see we have a lot of talent at each position, with a lot of interchangeability, but also a logjam at the SG position.

[chinngiskhaan]

I’m perfectly happy giving the coach 1 more year. The more I watch, the more I see that he is making adjustments in game, and he is devising offensive game plans that would work for us if we hit open shots and didn’t abandon the plan so early and so often.

The thing that irritates me still is that we have always had turnover issues with Krystko. Even with very experienced teams with senior point guards we still turned the ball over like crazy, and we’ve always taken forever to get into our offense. There is a reason why most teams try to press us at some point during each game. It has proven effective against Krystko’s teams.