The (Statistical) State of Utah’s Program – Part 2/4: On-Field Performance

[krindor]

As exciting as recruiting is, it doesn’t mean much if it doesn’t turn into results on the field.  So let’s look at how strong Utah has been and how that compares to various teams.

There’s a bunch of methodology at the end, but the basic explanation here is that I looked at every FBS game over the last decade for every P5 team (and selected high-end G5s) to assess how each team “normally” fares against G5 opponents, against “weak” P5 opponents, against “middle-of-the-road” P5 opponents, and against “good” P5 opponents.

With this info, I was able to figure out how every program would normally do against the same schedule – 1 FCS opponent, 2 G5s, 3 weak P5s, 3 medium P5s, and 3 good P5s

Based on this metric and against this schedule, Utah has been the #15 team in college football over the last decade (2013-2022), just above Penn St and Florida St and just behind USC and Michigan St

Rank Order of Teams Over the Last Decade is:

1. Alabama 10.93
2. Ohio St 10.88
3. Clemson 10.70
4. Georgia 9.93
5. Oklahoma 9.79
6. Notre Dame 9.22
7. Wisconsin 8.90
8. Oregon 8.88
9. Michigan 8.85
10. LSU 8.71
11. Oklahoma St 8.57
12. Iowa 8.51
13. USC 8.47
14. Michigan St 8.36
15. Utah 8.32
16. Penn St 8.30
17. Florida St 8.22
18. Washington 8.21
19. Auburn 8.07
20. Stanford 7.91
21. TCU 7.84
22. Florida 7.83
23. Texas A&M 7.77
    SEC Average 7.65
24. Baylor 7.61
25. Texas 7.53
26. Minnesota 7.50
27. Kansas St 7.35
28. Houston* 7.31
    B1G Average 7.29
29. Mississippi St 7.18
30. Pitt 7.15
31. West Virginia 7.15
32. Miami 7.14
33. Washington St 7.08
34. Ole Miss 7.05
35. Tennessee 7.04
36. UCLA 7.02
    PAC Average 6.93
    ACC Average 6.83
37. Arizona St 6.77
38. Louisville 6.74
39. NC State 6.73
40. South Carolina 6.72
41. Northwestern 6.65
42. Cincinnati* 6.64
    Big 12 Average 6.63
43. Missouri 6.60
44. BYU 6.60
45. Boise St* 6.56
46. Kentucky 6.51
47. North Carolina 6.46
48. Virginia Tech 6.39
49. UCF* 6.32
50. Nebraska 6.29
51. Navy* 6.24
52. Duke 6.22
53. Iowa St 6.21
54. Texas Tech 6.20
55. Fresno St* 6.17
56. Wake Forest 6.11
57. San Diego St* 5.96
58. Boston College 5.95
59. Georgia Tech 5.76
60. Maryland 5.72
61. Indiana 5.66
62. Memphis* 5.62
63. Cal 5.55
64. Arizona 5.49
65. Syracuse 5.44
66. Virginia 5.41
67. Colorado 5.37
68. Arkansas 5.24
69. Oregon St 5.05
70. Illinois 4.92
71. Purdue 4.91
72. USF* 4.49
73. Vanderbilt 4.46
74. Rutgers 4.22
75. Army* 3.22
76. UTSA* 3.08
77. SMU* 2.89
78. Kansas 2.85
79. UNLV* 2.20

That places Utah third in the current PAC12 (behind Oregon and USC, just ahead of Washington) and second in the future PAC12 (with USC gone).  There’s also a strong likelihood Utah will move up next season as 2013 ages out of the sample.

*most G5 schools have a smaller sample size, so may have effects resulting from that and should be taken with a grain of salt

Conference averages are based on projected future membership – USC, UCLA, Texas, Oklahoma, BYU, Cincy, Houston and UCF all assigned to their future conferences

good, medium, and bad P5 teams are determined by their win percentage in games against other P5 opponents. If they win 64% or more, they’re good; if it’s 36% or less, they’re bad. In between is medium. These values were chosen to split the groups evenly into 3.

[NarfUte]

But but but we don’t have an OOC P5 win since whenever… 

Good analysis. And here’s looking at you Iowa, that’s a surprise. (wife went there. I’ve come to realize even more frustrating offenses than fire Ludwig 1.0, schrammrod, troy taylor, etc…)

[krindor]

Iowa (like Utah to large extent) benefits from always being at least pretty good. On the other side you’ve got teams like Auburn or Florida St who have hit higher highs…. but also have some pretty ugly depths.