The assumptions are, the only way to get better is to replace the coach, and if we replace the coach we are sure to be more successful. Historically, that is sometimes the case but not at all most often the case. If that was most often the case, each year the bottom teams would replace their coaches, push the top teams down, and often replace them at the top. Still, sometimes a change of coach leads to a significant change of fortune. Sometimes a middle of the road team pays a big price only to see same results or worse, see even worse results. The backdrop is sports are competative, all about wining first place, and never letting up the effort to be number one.
Next, the longer a coach has an opportunity to win the conference and does not do so, the odds of eventual success continue to go down. Not often does the same formula struggle, struggle and years later break thru and dominate for a few years. It can happen, but is not at all common.
Although the Pac enjoys parity and is actually structured to create parity, still there are some with advantages that are difficult to overcome. All of us have a chance to win it all one year. Can you imagine some basketball fans from Pacific sitting around thinking, this is BS, we should replace our coach and run Gonzaga out of first place? We are not that desperate, however, it is good to recognize much goes into gaining our first Pac BB championship.
I don’t disagree that now might be a good time to look another direction. We pay Larry a lot and have not received enough for what we pay. He has had opportunities. It will cost us but could very well be worth the price. It also could cost us and we slide back some. We compete with 11 other schools, all making plans, all hell bent on more BB success, many with greater resources and history.
As to the timing, I think it is best when your ‘arrow’ is pointing down to make a coaching change. If you feel our ‘arrow’ is pointing up, the tendency is to hold and hope. I think the AD’s current read of the arrow will be very important. He won’t be looking at many years, mostly the couple of years he has been here. Next, the AD will look at what can make for the best next year. If next year’s best hopes are with Larry, it carries a lot of weight. If a new coach is more likely to make next year better, change goes to the top of the list. It is a risky move to hurt next year for the good of the long term, but is possible.
It is a tough decision for Harlan. I will ride with the direction he takes and be supportive. There is much that goes into this we may not be aware of. There is also a reason successful ADs never simply come out of the fan base, although unsuccessful ones feel like they come from a place much worse. Nothing here is a slam dunk.
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