Is NIL and the portal sustainable?

Yeah, it’s absolutely not sustainable because eventually the cost will be passed on to the fans and I know very few fans that will pay pro prices for a below minor league product. Loyalty goes both ways and everything is fun and games until people’s bottom lines start getting affected.

I’ll be contrarian and say yes the system is sustainable. Given that it all started with judicial intervention rather than planned policy, it will take time for changes (hopefully improvements) to catch up. I suspect there will be formalization of the NIL deals with some type of time commitments for players accepting deals.

The system will allow players to get paid and place a premium for great college players who may not become great NFL players. Guys like Quinn Ewers and Shadeur Sanders who would have made a lot more money staying in college may be more likely to stick around rather than bolt early.

The system will allow big money programs with huge fan bases to thrive- which will keep the big money and big fan bases involved.

The playoff will allow teams like Boise St, AZ St, and SMU to have a shot- which gives legitimacy to the playoff and keeps the legislators from interfering. I suspect they will expand to 16 teams so that the P2 can get more teams in.

As for whether Utah’s position in the food chain is sustainable, that is a different question all together. We have moved downward compared to the P12 days. Development of diamond-in-the-rough players has been a big part of Utah’s recipe for success and for this to continue working they will have to find a way to retain their best players. But Utah should be able to compete for B12 championships and playoff bids.

On the other hand, drastic change to a new system would not be surprising. The top programs could bolt from the NCAA and start over. Would it be the top 20 or the top 40? Who knows. I’ll not lose sleep worrying about it. I’ll hope to see some quality games this fall. Perhaps Utah’s offense will score, the defense will stymie, and we will get a shot in the playoffs. That would be fun.

The issue that I have with football breaking away and forming a closed league of 30 to 40 teams is that it shuts out the majority of the country. Let’s face it, college football is regional while the NFL is national. I believe that you can’t apply the NFL method to college football because fans have much more of a sentimental attachment to college football teams. For example, let’s say, for argument’s sake, that BYU gets into this college football Super League and Utah gets shut out.

The way I see that is that it immediately shuts out half (or more) of the college football watching population in Utah; because if there’s one thing I know better than my name, it’s that Utah fans are not going to turn into BYU fans or start watching BYU football. As a personal example, the only college football teams I watch are Utah and Miami, and maybe games that impact either of those two teams. I don’t watch the B1G, I don’t watch the SEC, I don’t watch the ACC, I don’t watch the Big XII, and I don’t see that changing ever.

Maybe I’m an outlier, and there are more people out there just willing to consume college football writ large. However, I doubt it because why would people watch teams that they have no emotional investment in, and where the talent level is arguably significantly lower than the UFL?

Is the portal sustainable as it currently stands? No. Every player essentially becoming a free agent every year, each of which is chasing an NIL deal is not sustainable.

Could changes be made that could make it sustainable? Absolutely. Multi year contracts would be a huge step forward. Changing rules about the timing of the portal and when NIL deals can be signed would also likely help. Lots of things can be done to fix this mess.

Will changes be made? Hard to say. Unfortunately, NCAA leadership gives me little faith they will solve this problem, and without a strong central governing body, it might be hard to accomplish.

I’m not sure it will crash and burn but it will look very different.

The most likely outcome, IMO, is that a new governing body for the top level of CFB and that the players will be able to collectively bargain. Once this happens everything will be reigned in. Contacts will be enforceable, transfer rules set, payment models established, etc. And restrictions will be enforceable because the players will have agreed to them. At that point it will essentially be a professional sport.

What I think will be interesting to see are two things:

1. What happens to non profit making our even non revenue generating sports? My guess is that football and basketball become their own separate entities.

2. How does this effect FCS, D2, D3, and NAIA? Do these stay as cfb had always been? Where the players are just getting scholarships but they can also go out and get sponsorship /NIL deals?

It will be sustainable for some, not so sustainable for others. So, I do expect a significant realignment and schools that were at a disadvantage in the old system (say SMU and BYU) emerging as potential powers, while some schools step back because they don’t have the resources to match the higher rollers.

Utah’s method of success the last 30 or so years, which relies heavily on recruiting under the radar types and developing them into possible NFL-ready talent, might not be best served in this new landscape as that talent might jump once they’ve seen that development if the financial incentive is there.

Will be interesting to see how a school like Utah navigates NIL, as they’re one of the better examples of a program that punches well above their weight specifically due to talent evaluation and development. But now the schools that punch above their weight just might be the ones with deep pockets.

2 things Utah has done very well over the years

1. Recruit players ‘under the radar’ and develop them over a few years into great contributors, often ready to play on Sunday.

2. Players that play here a few years, get a feel for a ‘family’ type atmosphere and bond together as a unit.

NIL sort of ruins both of these. A rising star heads to another school for a bigger paycheck. (Hell I would likely do the same if I was around 20)

In its current form, it is not sustainable. There is a fine line to walk between standardizing/regulating NIL deals, and maintaining some semblance of “student-athlete” rather than players as employees of the university, or the teams basically becoming university-sponsored minor league teams.

If NIL is more regulated (e.g. players are contractually obligated for a period of time or lose a year of eligibility for transferring), Utah can still be competitive in this era. CFB just needs to remove the incentive for players to transfer schools every single offseason. In a world where Utah can remain competitive financially in say, the 2nd or 3rd tier of schools (we’ll never have Texas/Bama/OSU budgets), and players are incentivized to stay at a school longer-term, Utah’s culture can become a selling point again.