Good question. The candidates that appeal to the Republican base done’t have a chance in the general election. I expect the base to eventually come around to that reality and put up Bush or Rubio for the nomination. Kasich seems the most reasonable, but I’m not sure how much traction he is getting. Maybe things will change? Who knows. Still a long way to go.
I wonder how the odds are calculated for those that haven’t even declared yet. For example, would Biden have better odds if he had already declared? Or is it just assumed that he is in the race? I would certainly expect him to have better odds than Trump.