I thought I understood statistics till I looked at that.
Arizona State (9 seed) has a lower chance of gettting to the qtr/semi/championship games than Utah but has an overall better chance at winning the Championship?
They are giving Arizona State a better chance in the championship game than the 3/5/7/8 seed. Really better than the 3 and 5 seeds? The 7 and 8 seeds, okay that’s probably alot closer or is it?
Arizona St. 8.66 chance to win the championship game, but only a .93 and .39 percentage chance in the Championship game, that seems like a huge discrepancy.
The only explanation is they would have to beat Arizona to get there so they’d benefit from that over other teams having to face Arizona in the Championship game. Weird. But Colorado would have to beat Arizona to get there as well and they only get the .39 chance to win. Oregon St. the 10 seed is given a better chance to win, by beating USC at 1.6.
Really crazy, and obviously done by somebody with way better probability tree experience than i.
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