game analysis


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      popbirch
      Ute Fan
      @popbirch

      The matchup for tomorrow is favorable for the Utes tbh.   From almost every angle this should be a close game with a few plays going to either team will determine the outcome.

       

      Statistically speaking the teams are very closely matched.  

      UW def holds teams to -11 compared to their opponents offensive season average

      Utah def holds teams to -9.

      UW off scores only 1 pt more that the oppositions defensive average.  

      Utah off scores 6 pts more.  

      In shared opponents UW avg score is 27.8 – 17.3 , Utah is 28.6-22 avg pts/game

      Of note the prior meeting both teams were held to their season offensive low in shared opponents  (UW had two lower off games cal-10, aub-16). 

      Teams over the year play towards their season averages (regression to the mean).  If that holds true when comparing season averages the score statistically speaking should be 20.9 utah- 19.6 UW with an error of somewhere around 3 pts.  Which really means this game is coin flip.   A couple big plays, bad calls, bad bounces for either team will likely be the difference.  We are unlikely to repeat the poor offensive performance we had in the first game but we will definitely need to do the same or better on defense to win. 

      We need to do better against the run.  Last game we gave up 172 on the ground.   We held their passing game to 155 which is 2nd lowest total for the year.   

      There’s no reason to believe we can’t hang in this game and have a chance to win if we make the few key plays a game to do so.  We had a very real chance to win the first matchup and dropped balls, bad penalties and poor execution allowed UW to win.  Shyne/green/shelley combo are as capable as TH/moss but needs to be more air focused which is actually in our favor for the game. 

      Should be fun one tomorrow.  I’ll be there cheering them on.

      Go UTES!!!! 

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