Here is my perfect world.
CR starts the rest of the games at 90% health or better.
-How many games has Cam played in this year? 0, so what are the possibilities of this? I’ll make up a probablility, 30%. Am I wrong? Haven’t seen Cam so nobody can argue I’m wrong. If he was going to play I would guess Kyle would have announced him as the “definitive starter” by now.
Since we are not in a perfect world you go with Plan B.
Give as much preparation time to the QB who has played the best.
Right now Utah’s coaching staff is straddling a ditch, it wasn’t very wide those first three games, obviously got wider last game and OSU, USC, Washington, Oregon are only going to widen that gap more.
Quit jumping from one side to the other, or we fall into a huge canyon we can’t recover from, and it may impact not only this year but next.
When I say give NJ all the reps I’m going on what I’ve seen. Stop p**sing into the wind and hoping you don’t get wet. I’m more comfortable seeing NJ start every game until Cam can come off the bench and prove he’s ready. Now we’re just jumping over an ever widening canyon and hoping we don’t slip. Stay on one side, even if you probably can’t get to 12-0. Right now Cam has won exaclty 0 games this year based on his health, and availability. I love what Bad moon Rising has done the past couple years. But those are in the past and in this “what have you done for me lately world” to quote Rick Springfield, “Ya done nothin’ for me!”
Those of us putting our eggs in the NR basket aren’t anti-Cam, we’re pro-today. Hoping and wishing for Cam thus far has played no part in our current 4-0 start. Please share with me Cam’s highlights this year? He put on pads for pre-game before UCLA? So did Barnes, so did Luke Bottari. They both had the same impact on the win vs. UCLA as Cam. I’m looking for solutions, right now all I’ve seen thus far with Cam splitting reps is problems. FREE NJ!!!!!!
Probabilities are tough but unfortunately we’re in a position where they matter. Probability Cam plays the rest of the games at 90% or better? 0%. 1st of all because he’s probably not going to reach 90% even if he didn’t play a snap for the rest of the year, 2nd of all because it’s hard to go through a football season at 90% or better even if you start at 100%.
Probability we see him at 75% and better? 100%. Probability he gets hit and ends up worse than when the season started and we’ve ****ed our season with a cactus for nothing? I don’t want to think about it but it’s uncomfortably non-zero.
My issue is this: if NJ has been in the program a year, split reps with Barnes in fall camp, then got more reps going into games 2 and 3, with 50/50 for game 4 (with Cam), why is he only at 1/2 of the playbook? Is it because Ludwig’s playbook is that large? Seems like he’d be further along, can’t get it down, or has some limitations the coaches are seeing. Obviously, CR needs to get the rust off but knows the playbook, just needs to get timing down. Towards the end of the season, we thought CR was gone and this year would be Rose or NJ anyway, so here we are. Frustrating that CR seems almost there then says he’s not ready. At some point, the coaches need to put him in or pull the plug (controversial because he has earned the right to get some patience). If he’s unsure of himself (or not fully cleared?), maybe 20% of reps until he is all in to prepare to play a game.
I think there are two separate issues, (1) what is best for Cam, and (2) what is best for the team. There is a lot of overlap between these two, but there are also some differences.
Stepping back from cold and rational fan analysis, when to return to play is probably the most consequential decision Cam has ever made. Many of his childhood dreams hang from this one decision, as well as his future financial situation. To make it worse, there is no way to know how to make that decision.
From a fan perspective, I understand our frustration with his inability to go on our timeframe. But I get his hesitancy to make that call and am willing to give him all the time he needs because he has earned our patience and because his healthy return is essential to this year’s team reaching their potential. Reality forces you to slowly move on from your injured star, but you never pull the plug on them because their return shifts your potential realities.
What is best for Cam is that he takes the entire year utilizing our staff and facilities rehabbing, a huge luxury in a potentially life altering recovery. Because lets be reasonable, we all know Cam has no serious NFL future and his best bet is to go into draft season as healthy as possible. He can at least try to get paid. This is for Cam the person, not the player.
What’s best for the team all hinges on how well Cam Rising plays in November and if we can make it there in one piece. So far we are tracking on one part of that, so better than nothing.
What concerns me is now that we know he’s been cleared for a while and is holding himself out, that we’re talking about a guy that didn’t think he could go in and hack it vs Weber State. I’m having serious doubts that a dude in that state of mind and physical form puts on the pads and balls out for our very tough conference schedule.
Robo,
Cam has no serious NFL future? I disagree. He may not have some physical measurements – height, arm strength; but what else is he missing? I don’t think he’s a high draft pick – Hell, I don’t know if he’ll be drafted; but I think he’s an NFL quarterback. I think he can make a nice living for a while as a back up/sometime starter. I think he’s a Huntley/Gardner Minshew in the NFL. Perhaps I have the red goggles too attached.
Rick
Rick, Cam might have some intangibles that make him attractive to some team ala a Minshew or a Heinecke. That being said, I’ve never even seen his name as a potential draftee in any serious draft analysis. He’s one of those guys that’s going to have to try to get his foot in the door and then make the most of any opportunity.
You may be right Miami but I think he has the skillset to make the NFL and be more than a practice squad player – not there’s anything wrong with that.
Let’s compare him to Tyler Huntley. Do you genuinely think Rising is a better thrower, specifically as a downfield passer, than Huntley? Because he’s not, and it’s not particularly close. Huntley was an UDFA and is now a backup QB. Additionally, Cam’s run game won’t be as good in the NFL where the defenders are stronger, faster, and more sound. Add in the fact that Cam is reckless with his body, and I just don’t see it. The only way Cam can make it to the NFL is if this ACL tear has made him work on his passing a lot this offseason. There is hope, as he did work with a QB coach that has worked with Mahomes, Burrow, and apparently made Josh Allen go from mediocre to superstar (I say apparently since I don’t watch the NFL at all, just read a few articles). Cam was supposedly working on his throwing motion for velocity and distance on his throws, I’m assuming to become a better downfield passer, which is his main weakness, and that’s a BAD weakness to have if you want to make it in the NFL.
Even as someone who thinks the NFL is a little over enamored with measurables there’s a good reason that height and arm strength are considered fairly important for that position. I think a ton of worse QBs than Cam have gotten shots in the NFL which is why I would encourage him to be healthy and try.
But as Miami alluded to Cam is never talked about on draft boards and the reason is something never discussed here, his arm is not great even by college standards. By NFL standards it’s not even on the radar. Cam is still a very good QB despite this because of all of the other skills and qualities he has in spades like you mentioned.
You never really know for certain how a QB translates to the next level so I can’t discount the possibility of a minschew-like career for Cam I would also point out that those stories are rare and despite a bunch of good showings no team has ever signaled that minschew is anything more than basically a last resort for them.
A smaller dude with an underpowered arm is just not a guy you see every Sunday at that position. If you’re counting on him to break the mold ala Drew Brees (who had a f**king cannon compared to Cam) well then I encourage you to play the powerball right now, it’s gigantic and you’re the gambling sort. And this is no knock to Cam. Cam has already proven that he’s a great QB. But the QB position in the NFL is insanely difficult. Pretty much everybody but about 15 guys at any given time are considered trade material and those 15 guys often stick around for a long long time.
Finally, despite all of this being logical the Browns exist, so any amount of theoretical ineptitude is possible, and I hope that Cam is starting in Cleveland this time next year, set up to retire anytime he wants.
Well said. From Cam’s perspective, he wants to stay healthy AND have a good showing to open up future doors. For the team, we want him back because we know what he is capable of. If he gets reinjured, that sucks (more for him), and we move back to NJ. That commoditization is unfair, but also giving him too many reps hampers current progress and success. Just a tease. So, consider Cam the backup until he’s honestly preparing to start the next game. Do the 70/25/5 with NJ, Cam, and Barnes/Rose (that’s what I meant by pull the plug – on 50/50 reps). If NJ is only 50% of playbook, it’s obvious he needs the reps to gain trust to throw it more.
The problem with this line of thought is that Cam isn’t the only player on this team. He’s not the only one with NFL aspirations. How about Vele and Pittman who are in their last year of CFB? Don’t they deserve the best chance at showing what they can do? At the moment, the best guaranteed chance of that is Nate getting 100% of the reps, not 50. How about this entire team that deserves the best guaranteed shot to win Friday night and remain unbeaten? The best guaranteed shot is NJ with 100% of the reps, not 50.
I think 80% of Cam’s arm, 20% of his legs, and 100% of his experience/moxie/decision making/leadership is still better than 100% of NJ. Maybe we don’t put up 40+, but with our defense we should be able to get pretty far if we can score 28-35 per game and I think we could do that with an experienced QB that is still somewhat limited.
I think we can drop this OSU game, give a couple weeks of rest and come back with a good warm up at Cal. In 3 and a half weeks one would hope we return some healthy and rested starters for the gauntlet. If we can wind up healthier than the other top teams by the time we get to them, then maybe we can still make a run at the playoff even with this one loss. Maybe with the strength of the Pac 12, this is the year a 2 loss team gets in.
“we can still make a run at the playoff”
Holy s**t I hope everyone on Utehub has the kind of day this guy’s having.
Playoffs? Playoffs?
ha ha, I said “maybe”. Pardon my optimism.
The world needs optimists, don’t change. Just saying this one is on the optimistic side of optimistic right now.
There is a less than 1% chance a 2 loss team makes the playoff. That would require only 3 P5’s with one loss or less and no undefeated G5’s. A 2 loss team isn’t going to make it over either of those.
Depends on how close your losses were, how good your wins are, and if you win the CCG, along with maybe some injury context. Let’s say Utah loses to OSU (no Cam Rising or Kuithe), and UW, but beats USC and Oregon. Then we rematch an 11-1 UW team in the CCG, and beat them. An 11-2 Utah team with close losses to OSU without Rising on a Friday night, and a close loss to UW in Seattle, has a great argument for the CFP. One loss is without your two best players on offense, and the other is a close loss on the road to a top 5 team, but you will have redeemed that loss on a neutral field. It’s not absurd for Utah to make it in such a scenario. Auburn would have made the playoffs in 2017 if they won the SEC, and they had 2 losses. Of course this depends on Rising and Kuithe not only coming back, but also playing at or near their pre-injury level.
Those scenarios have already happened and the 2 loss team always was left out. There isn’t going to be an exception because the PAC looked strong in week 4.
Alabama, Ohio State, Penn State, Clemson, LSU, Auburn, Georgia are just some of the 2 loss teams that were left out with what were considered great resumes and/or conference championship wins.
This is literally untrue with Auburn…
In 2017, heading into conference championship week, Auburn was ranked NUMBER TWO at 10-2. They lost 28-7 against UGA in a rematch and then dropped 5 spots. Had they won against UGA again, they would have gotten into the playoffs as a 2-loss team, probably as the 2-seed still.
Yeah, you mentioned Auburn and it stuck in my head while writing the reply and I didn’t check my work.
The others though.,, the committee has shown that it favors lack of losses over conference championships and uses whatever pretzel logic they can to convince everyone that they actually have criteria. Just last year 2 loss ACC champ Clemson did not get in over CCG loser TCU or Ohio State which did not make their CCG.
This is why college football is fun. So much can happen.
Everyone is right nobody is wrong. Great thoughtful posts on ute hub. My hat is off to all of you!! Bottom line if we lose to OSU our hopes of a three peat will end. OSU is much better than you think. Our offense is not good period without JJ and Cam. Sad but true.
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