Personal musings on the CFP rankings

[St George Ute]

Some of my thoughts on the first CFP rankings of 2016:

1) Bama #1, no problem there.
2) Clemson #2, I’m surprised. They’ve struggled the last couple weeks and if not for some questionable calls in the closing minutes, FSU would probably have won.
3) Michigan #3, should be #2.
4) Texas A&M #4, honestly, impressive record against some pretty good teams. One loss to Bama, so not bad.
5) Washington #5, weak OOC schedule and all the conference teams they played before Utah are down this year. First tough competition was Utah, and we were in it until the end (2-3 missed block in the back calls).
6) After that, it’s a crap shoot.

If Washington wins out, including a win in the PAC12 championship, they’ll deserve to jump A&M and likely will.

If Ohio St and Michigan win out but tOSU beats Michigan and wins the B1G title game, then I could see both being in consideration for the CFP.

If Bama and A&M win out, Bama is in at #1 and A&M will likely be considered.

If the PAC12 doesn’t have an undefeated team by season’s end, then they may be left out. I can see that happening. Honestly, I don’t see Washington being undefeated (USC, Wazzu, championship)

If a conference gets two teams in the CFP (most likely are Bama and A&M or Michigan and tOSU), then talk of an 8 team playoff gets more traction.

What I’d like to see:

Undefeated Washington v Utah in the PAC12 championship game, Utah wins and takes the Rose Bowl spot and WA gets left out of the playoffs.

CFP final four are either Bama, Ohio St, Clemson, Michigan OR Bama, Michigan, Clemson, A&M. CFP leaves out the Big XII and PAC12 and pundits start talking 8 team playoff.

Final result is an 8 team playoff. Playoff includes each of the P5 conference champions, the top ranked G5 team, and the final 2 spots go to the two highest ranked teams who are not conference champions. New Years Six bowls (Peach, Fiesta, Sugar, Orange, Cotton, and Rose) get the first 2 rounds (4 in the 1st, other 2 in the 2nd) rotating who gets 1st and 2nd round games. CFP National Championship game played at one of the 1st round venues, rotating each year.

[Utah]

I disagree when you ding Washington for their OOC record. A&M has only played New Mexico State, Prarie View and will play Texas San Antonio later this year. 

You can’t ding Washington for playing a P5 school and then a 9 conference game schedule and then give Texas A&M a pass for an 8 game conference schedule and NMSU, PVA&M and UTSA. 

If you count UCLA as Texas A&M’s 9th conference game, then A&M has zero OOC P5 games. Washington had one, and when the game was scheduled, Rutgers was a good team. 

Washington should be #4. 

[St George Ute]

At this point in the season, A&M has done more than Washington, even with one loss.

Washington’s schedule to-date:
Rutgers 2-6
Idaho 4-4
Portland St 2-6
Arizona 2-6
Stanford 5-3
Oregon 3-5
Oregon St 2-6
Utah 7-2

Texas A&M
UCLA 3-5
Prairie View 5-3
Auburn 6-2 (lost close to Clemson, lost to A&M, Wins against Arkansas St, Arkansas, and Ole Miss)
Arkansas 5-3 (losses to A&M, Bama, Auburn, wins against TCU, Ole Miss)
South Carolina 4-4 (best win vs Tennessee)
Tennessee 5-3 (losses to A&M, Bama, South Carolina, wins against Georgia, Florida, Virginia Tech)
Loss to Alabama 8-0 (wins against USC, Ole Miss, Arkansas, Tennessee, & A&M)
New Mexico St 2-6

Comparing resumes at this point in the season (and that’s what the CFP rankings are based on), I give Texas A&M the edge over Washington. Washington has played their 3 OOC games (Sun Belt, FCS, B1G). A&M has played 3 of their 4 (PAC12, C-USA, Sun Belt) with one left.

To-date, both teams have played 6 P5 teams, 1 mid-major, and 1 FCS team. So, at this point, they are identical. But, I would argue that A&M’s conference games to-date have been more difficult than Washington’s and that A&M has beaten tougher competition. Their one loss is to the #1 team in the country.

Another comparison:
Opponents record
Washington’s opponents 27-38 (P5 opponents are 21-28)
A&M’s opponents 38-26 (P5 opponents are 31-17)

[St George Ute]

Also, I do believe that if both Washington and A&M win out, and Washington wins the PAC12 title game, that Washington will deserve to jump A&M.

I’m just arguing that right now, with their resumes, A&M’s is more impressive.

[Utah]

I disagree. It’s so tough to compare schedules for a lot of reasons, some of the being that the SEC’s will always be artificially inflated due to playing only 8 conference games. 

I do agree that if Washington wins out, they are in. But, Washington will end up the most screwed team in sports this year, because they will be undefeated in the regular season, lose to Utah in the PAC-12 title game, Utah will go to the Rose Bowl and Washington will have to go play SDSU in the Cotton Bowl. ha ha. 

[St George Ute]

I agree it is hard to compare schedules at this point in the season. It’s a bit easier at the end, and it’s obvious the SEC pads their schedule with easy OOC wins.

However, most of the SEC teams haven’t yet played their final patsy game (if I’m allowed to say that word), so right now their schedules are similar to the PAC12 in the number of P5 vs G5/FCS teams. In that respect, the schedules are comparable, and unfortunately, A&M’s opponents have a better record than Washington’s. Hence, the higher ranking.

Let’s call A&M 4a and Washington 4b. They are pretty close as far as I’m concerned. But, we both agree that if Washington wins out then they are in.

But, like you said. Utah will beat WA in the title game, so it doesn’t matter anyway. 🙂

[Tacoma Ute]

I wouldn’t give the G5 an autobid in an 8 team playoff. I’d give them access on a year by year basis if there was a deserving team. If the playoff went to 16 I’d give them an autobid.

[St George Ute]

I can get behind that.

[Anonymous]

Took only six years for us to turn into us vs them?

[leftyjace]

Took me one day…

[Anonymous]

Haha