Sagarin, S&P+ 9/25/18


  • Next: Holiday Bowl vs Northwestern – Mon 12/31 4pm – FS1
    • #69295
      11

      shakeitsugaree
      Ute Fan
      @shakeitsugaree

      Short version: S&P+ says we go 7-2 and win the south; Sagarin says we go 6-3 and SC finishes 7-2.

      One thing I’ve been thinking about this week is how much I like Connelly’s S&P+ metric. There’s been a lot of talk on this site about whether statistics are meaningful or useful in any way. I would recommend reading this explanation of S&P+ (I’ve linked to this before) before you decide to disregard statistics. You can find the S&P+ rankings here. Connelly claims that S&P+ tends to hit between 51 and 54 percent against the Vegas spread. Not bad. BTW, S&P+ says we win this Saturday; this is the difference in whether we take the south, because SC is also predicted to finish 7-2, but we would hold the head to head tiebreaker.

      For a brief version of the long explanation, S&P+ evaluates a team’s performance in what Connelly defines as the Five Factors of winning: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, finishing drives, and turnovers. These factors are weighted to reflect their relative importance in predicting wins; Connelly states in his explanation that efficiency is the single most important stat in creating wins. What is efficiency? It is based on ‘success rate’ which Connelly defines thusly:

      First downs: gaining at least 50 percent of necessary yardage (usually 5 yards) is successful.
      Second downs: gaining at least 70 percent of necessary yardage is successful.
      Third or fourth downs: gaining at least 100 percent of necessary yardage is successful.

      There’s more to S&P+, but in looking at the breakdown in how each team is ranked, this system makes intuitive sense. For example, Utah as the #1 defense as determined by S&P+; Alabama has the #1 offense.

      What do you guys think? Are there better analytics out there that anyone knows about?

    • #69298
      5

      ladyinred
      Ute Fan
      @ladyinred

      I do not know, but thumbs up for this post and especially for use of the word ‘thusly’.

    • #69312

      Duhwayne
      Ute Fan
      @duhwayne

      Yeah me too. Shakeitsugaree sounds like Shakespeare. Or like Star at around 24, where I think we are..

    • #69316
      1

      SkinyUte
      Ute Fan
      @skinyute

      A quick side question. Is your name “shake it sugaree” or “shake its ugaree”.

      Not that either makes any sense to me…just curious.

    • #69338
      1

      UtMtBiker
      Ute Fan
      @utmtbiker

      So…you’re telling me that you can’t count on the “eye test”. The radio guys and Mel Kiper keep talking about the “eye test” so must be solid.  

    BACK TO TOP

    You must be logged in to reply to this topic.

    Utah Utes Message Board Forums Utah Utes Sports Football Sagarin, S&P+ 9/25/18

    This topic contains 6 replies, has 5 voices, and was last updated by  UtMtBiker 2 months, 2 weeks ago.