Our loss to Washington didn’t really impact our Sagarin ranking, but wins by other teams in the conference have changed the Sagarin W-L predictions for us.
We’re still predicted to win all our games against the Pac12 south, and the game against Oregon. We’re still predicted to lose to Stanford. We are now predicted to lose to Wazzu, by a very slim margin. This puts us finishing 6-3, with head to head wins against USC and Colorado.
Sagarin predicts both USC and Colorado to finish 6-3; USC’s schedule is the easiest – they miss UW and Oregon. The thing that worries me the most is that Sagarin is predicting that USC loses at home to WSU. I don’t know about you, but that makes me very, very nervous. If USC wins that game, our chances to take the south are very much in jeopardy.
As far as our chances at 6-3, I think they are pretty good. S&P+ is not that impressed with Oregon; despite being 3-0, they dropped -5 spots in the rankings to land at 32; Our loss dropped us -13 to 37. Sagarin ranks Oregon at 39, Utah 28. Assuming we lose to WSU, the win at Autzen is absolutely critical – but totally achievable.
One thing I noticed when looking at the S&P+ numbers, is that our special teams ranking is very poor: 87. Our defense is ranked 2 and our offense is – ahem – 108. I would expect our ST ranking to improve, drastically, over the course of the season. Which would then align the S&P+ rankings more with the Sagarin rankings, giving me more confidence in the Sagarin predicted finish.
The south is in reach – just need to win the games we should, and get a little help from WSU in the Coliseum.
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