Utes vs UCLA

[popbirch]

Utah is slightly better in almost every category that matters against UCLA.
Utah- UCLA
scoring offense 26.7-26 pts/game, Utah edge
total yards 417-409 yds/game Utah edge
Adjusted scoring offense, points scored above teams average scoring defesnse, -4 vs -1
Scoring defense 18.29- 23.14 Utah edge
total defense 341-344 utah edge
Adjusted scoring defense, points held below teams average scoring offense, -7.6 vs -8.4

The average scoring off/def adjusts for strength of teams played thus far and indicates both teams offense score below what other teams usually give up and both teams defenses hold teams to well under their season average.  When you put this all together UCLA will (on average) allow utah to score 18 pts and utah is likely to score (on average) 22 pts. so utah should be in the 18-22 range.  Whereas utah should allow ucla to score 19 and ucla is likely to score 24 based on averages, leaving an average score range betwer 19-24.

What this all means to me is that this game is likely to be a very close game and will come down to who plays cleaner ball with less TOs.  Similar to other games this year and prior years this game will likely come down to the last possession or two with each team having a chance to win it late.  

The other big factor is TOs which UCLA is much worse at than we are.  Currently UCLA is 10th in the pac12 in TOs and utes are 4th. If we can protect the ball and play our standard grind it out gameplan we should be able to come out on top. 

[cbmute]

Interesting numbers.  Thanks for posting.
I think ucla has played a harder schedule to this point.  Looking at strength of schedule at this point, does that change the way you would look at those numbers? 

[popbirch]

The adjusted scoring offense and defense numbers should directly address strength of schedule issues. For example, to better explain that number if UCLA scored 40 on a team that usually gives up 40 that not really a great game for them even though usually their offense scores 26 so it seems like they outperformed their opponent they really only just barely met the expectation. However if you score 34 on a team that usually gives up 20 thats actually a great offensive output. So that number inherently adjusts to how you good did against what you would expect a team to do given the competition. UCLAs offense frequently underperforms by about 1 point and the utes offense frequently underperforms by about 4 points. Both defenses though tend to outperform expectations by a TD.
UCLA has definitely played a harder schedule thus far though, most SOS sites have them between 5-10 for SOS rank in the nation whereas utah is 50-60 range for sos. UCLA opponents are 28-19 for the year. Utahs opponents (without SUU) are 17-24 for the year which is part of why Utah has an edge in the unadjusted numbers.

[Texasute]

Very good analysis. I hope it translates to a win for the good guys. If Utah wins, it can be a spring board for a lot of very good things this year and in the future.

But my gut tells me every time I get excited about the Utes they disappoint me. Every time I don’t expect anything I get surprised…… 44 – 6 ….. Go Utes!

[leftyjace]

So why are the Vegas odds at +7?
That’s what I don’t get.

[popbirch]

The real answer to that is because people from utah don’t bet enough we end up giving the other team a few extra points on the spread in order to entice utah fans to bet more.

The point spread is not really a prediction of the game, it is designed to draw equal betting on both sides so that the sports books make money.

In most statistical comparisons and predictors this game that are not related to gambling the game are setting the line at -2 or -3 for ucla which is really just the home field advantage. If we played this game in utah the computers/stats models would likely say -2 or -3.

[Anonymous]

This doesn’t take into account punting and FG kicking.

Punting: UCLA 38.67 yards per punt. Utah 49.13 yards per punt. No one is close to Wisknowski

FG Kicking: UCAL 9-14. Utah 10-12. UCLA’s JJ Molson may be an heir to the Molson Coors family fortune and probably will be a 5 year player while he bags all the pussy he can, but he sucks as a kicker.

[UtesRock]

Score, that’s the one I’m betting on.

[utejeph]

I’m feeling good about tomorrow. I think the dline will be the deciding factor. Utes 28 Bruins 17