A huge wildcard is the weather. The forecast had snow falling in Boulder starting about 2:00am. If it snows and passes by, they’ll clear the field. If there is snow sticking during the game, things get a little crazy.
The Buffs seem either like they’re really sagging with 5 straight losses, with their coach dealing with a horrendously botched rumor of the worst kind… or they’ll be really p**sed and will want to rally and want to send their seniors out with a “W” and get to a bowl.
I would expect them to fight. Football players are competitors, these guys aren’t going to lay down, and anyone who expects that is nuts. (They might mail it in – but I would be a bit surprised, unless there are major chemistry problems, which is possible since they coughed up 28 points to Oregon State at home in the 2nd half a few weeks ago, and lost that game.)
Logically, with mediocre OL play vs our DL, I would expect them to go wide to Shenault and other playmakers, maybe some wheel routes and other RB patterns to Macmillian, probably some stuff nobody has seen yet. If there’s snow on the field, they’ll want to get the ball in space ASAP, where offensive players have a bigger advantage with the footing. Shenault, Nixon, the coach’s son & whoever else they have at WR and RB are their best bet.
Of course if there’s snow on the field, maybe the one player with the biggest advantage is Covey who has short steps to begin with. (We played New Mexico in 1984 with snow sticking on the field, with the great Errol Tucker as a punt returner. He made everyone else look like statues, both because he was truly great, and because in the open field defenders are at a serious disadvantage in those conditions.)
Our offense vs their D is another favorable matchup… on paper. They have 2 starting DBs out and a LB out with concussion protocol. Everyone west of the Mississippi knows we’ll want to use the power game, which CU may have success stuffing early. (Example: Weber shooting the gaps, selling out to alter the basic game flow.) If we keep our composure, don’t turn the ball over and can get enough snaps, we should be able to wear down their D. If there is snow on the field, this kind of ugly ball is more easily negated. Shelley and the receivers will need to make plays in crappy weather, there’s very little chance we’ll be able to just ram it down their throat all game.
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