College QB NFL Draft Rankings

[The Miami Ute]

Interesting to see that NFL scouts don’t project guys like Nix or Penix to be very high draft choices. Rising isn’t even discussed in this conversation even though he’s obviously draft eligible. Goes to show how different the college and pro games are when a guy like Shadeur Sanders is projected to be drafted much higher than guys who are in excellent teams and killing it in college, like Nix and Penix.

2024 NFL draft QB Hot Board: Ranking the top 16 quarterbacks

[DataUte]

Yeah, Williams, Sanders, Daniels rated higher because of their bignolay potential. I would have guessed Nix and Penix (who might win the Heisman) would be higher. The description for Nix seems good, just dings him on not throwing it deeper more. Penix concerns about injury and durability, dinging him because he has a good OL so they don’t know how he’ll handle pressure.

[The Miami Ute]

I think NFL scouts are also concerned by the fact that Penix is only completing 43 percent of his passes when he’s outside the pocket (guess what Utah needs to do on Saturday). That’s way too low for someone who’s aspiring to go to the NFL.

Moving on, I also think that the scouts have a sneaking suspicion that a lot of Nix’s success is based off the system that he plays in and wouldn’t necessarily translate to the NFL. For example, only 27 percent of Nix’s attempts this season have gone beyond 10 yards.

College excellence really means nothing at the pro level. I remember when I was in my last year at the University of Miami, a QB called Gino Torretta won the Heisman Trophy. Gino was a 7th RD draft pick of the Vikings and only played two games in his entire NFL career. You never know…

[DataUte]

Saw that stat about Nix with quick, short throws. That fits the NFL ‘run’ game Brady used, but you also have to have a good deep ball, esp. 20-40 yd throws which he hasn’t shown. Didn’t realize Penix was that bad outside the pocket – let’s flush him!

Other Heisman qbs: Jason White, Eric Crouch, Charlie Ward … totally agree that some college ballers are not built for the NFL. Some can have a nice journeyman/backup career and make some money without playing that much. Not the worst gig.

[2008 National Champ]

You can’t throw WR screens and mesh routes all day in the NFL. College DB’s and LB’s aren’t capable of stopping those plays consistently. They have the talent, but with only so many hours per week available to practice, there are always going to be schematic deficiencies when compared to the pros. Not to mention the talent disparity, even within a conference.

[PlainsUte]

Jason White won the Heisman and never played a down in the NFL. Is working in finance.

[DrahtUte]

NFL scouts were also responsible for Zach Wilson getting drafted number 2 overall.

So….

[The Miami Ute]

Correction, Jets’ “scouts” were responsible for Wilson getting drafted #2 overall…

[AZUTE]

Rising was a borderline NFL QB prospect before the injury now if he goes pro after the season he will go undrafted and have to hope some team signs him as an UDFA and he lands on a practice squad somewhere.

[The Miami Ute]

Honestly, I’ve had a subscription to PFF for years and, hard to believe I know, Rising’s name has never even come up as a possible marginal NFL player. The NFL scouting system doesn’t give much weight to intangibles and that’s where Rising falters.

[2008 National Champ]

He’s a little on the short side and doesn’t possess an “NFL” arm. He’s never shown that he can hit the deep ball consistently and also has never really shown that he can beat DB’s in tight windows in the 18-30 yard range.

That assessment doesn’t detract in any way from what he was able to accomplish at Utah. Just that the requirements for an NFL QB are different. It’s also why he spent his offseason trying to generate more torque in his throwing motion.

8 yard digs to Kuithe/Kincaid 10 times a game is not a skillset that the NFL covets. 15 yard dimes to the sideline that are thrown before the receiver breaks and are delivered so that only the receiver can catch it with a DB draped on him is what a college QB needs to show to be in consideration.

[DrahtUte]

I only watch Utes games so I really only pay attention to quarterbacks that the Utes play directly. On that basis, Bo Nix is the best college quarterback I’ve seen in several years.

I don’t recall the Utes ever even slightly frustrating him in the last game. He just calmly took what he could get from our defense the whole game and steadily ran the score out of reach.

I really don’t recall any QBs making it look that easy against our defense in a long while. CJ Stroud in the Rose bowl was unbelievable but it looked to me like he was pushing his limits. Bo just looked like he was taking a stroll in the park.

[2008 National Champ]

An NFL receiver can’t get open in under 2 seconds unless the DB falls down. The quick passing game that Nix has utilized to put Utah on it’s heels the last two years just doesn’t work. If you can’t get through 4 or 5 of your progressions in 4 seconds or less in the pros, you will fail.

Nix makes his money off pre-snap reads right now. He won’t have that luxury in the league which is why he has a lower draft prospectus. When both the offensive and defensive players have similar levels of talent, experience, and preparation, the things that a college QB can get away with shrink drastically.

[Central Coast Ute]

That’s probably why both Penix and Nix stayed in school instead of going pro after last year. Doesn’t seem like much has changed.

[The Miami Ute]

Exactly. They’re making their schools a lot of money. They’re also probably doing pretty well themselves via NIL. Future NFL prospects, not so much. The issues that made NFL scouts about future potential are still there.

[DataUte]

I’m just curious about the mentality ‘not NFL prospects’. I think we are talking about likely not first rounders, likely not future starters? Even those that project more 3rd, 4th round and beyond can either 1) develop further and become a future contributor, 2) be a servicable backup, 3) flame out, be a journeyman on practice squads or go to other leagues, etc. Is that more what we are considering? There are very few without some flaws that either have to get fixed or accepted, so again, I think there are probably only 2, maybe 3 (sometimes 0 or 1) ‘franchise’ qbs in a draft. Thoughts?

[The Miami Ute]

Data, as you know, drafting is an inexact science. Look at Brock Purdy, Mr Irrelevant in last year’s draft. Nobody would have predicted that he would have become the 49ers full-time starter ever, much less in his first season.

What were mostly talking about is positive physical measurables and demonstrated flaws that would need to be polished off to be a success in the NFL.

According to NFL scouts, the three guys most “turnkey ready” to thrive in the NFL are Williams, Maye, and Sanders. But even those guys could flame out. The 49ers gave away the farm for the Dolphins #3 pick in 2021 to draft Trey Lance. That was a move made purely out of physical measurables and development projection. It failed horribly.

[DataUte]

Thanks – that makes sense. I guess ‘who is ready to plug and play’ – get dropped in and do ok (usually those teams have other flaws, like OL, etc., but makes sense). Interesting that it’s possible Arizona might have the top pick and grab Caleb. I think it would be foolish to replace Murray (Riley product) with Caleb – probably same result: flashes of brilliance then injury. Not too different for Sanders, but we don’t fully know because he’s already running for his life.

I guess others have enough flaws that you’d want to sit them for a year or at least wait until halfway through the season and your team sucks to try them out and test them to see what you have. Even some good prospects are afforded time to develop and learn the NFL ways of the force. Others are thrown into the fire and either excel or struggle. CJ Stroud’s accuracy we saw in college certainly has set him up well for the Texans. Others are either less consistent or haven’t learned to read defenses and turn it over more. But even Peyton had a tough 1st year as more of the team had to be built out …