Yep, we’re in the driver’s seat for fourth in the PAC, which would be huge. We absolutely do not want to finish fifth, and play Oregon St in the first round. The last time we played them our RPI dropped 16 points, even with the W. Also finishing fourth would give us an opponent, either USC or Cal, playing for the second night in a row.
Current standings:
4 Cal 9-5 Remaining games Oregon, Oregon St, @ Utah, @ Colorado
5 Utah 8-6 @ Oregon St, @ Colorado, Cal, Stanford
6 USC 8-6 @ Arizona, @ Arizona St, UW, WSU
Cal really, really effed up losing to Stanford last night. If we win out we’re guaranteed to finish ahead of USC, as we hold the tiebeaker over them. Also if we win out Cal would have to beat Oregon at home and win at Colorado 36 hours after playing Utah just to tie us (if that’s the scenario, where we both finish 12-6, they would win the tiebreaker on the strength of their Oregon W). Oregon struggled and lost at Colorado after a similar turnaround after playing Utah.
Winning out, then beating Cal or USC in the PAC tournament and losing to Arizona gets us on the NCAA tournament bubble, but probably not in. We probably need to at minimum get to the PAC final, even then to get in we may have to win the whole thing.
Win our last 4, ending up 21-9 (12-6), beat USC/Cal in the PAC tournament, after that we probably still need to beat Arizona to get into the NCAA Tournament. It’s not an impossible task, but highly unlikely IMO.
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