So what do you all think about the 2024 season?
For me – I think this season depends mostly on Cam Rising’s health and ability to do what he does best. Cam may not need to run as much as he has in the past, but he needs to be a threat to run. He is at his best when he can run and keep the defense honest.
I think we have the receivers and tight ends necessary to make some noise in the passing game. The running game should be okay, but as someone posted Saturday, do we have the power back necessary for short-yardage situations? What will Woods be able to contribute this fall? Obviously, our offensive line needs to be very good and IMO better than what see saw last season.
On defense, we have a very good and deep front four. The linebacker position took a big hit with the injury to Damuni. Fotu and others will need to step it up to give us depth. It seems that CB is our biggest concern. Can they come together and provide solid coverage?
I am not ready to make any kind of win-loss prediction yet. However, I do believe we are capable of beating every team on our schedule if we remain relatively healthy. IMO the toughest two games on our schedule will come back to back as we begin our conference schedule against OSU and Arizona. The last game at UCF could also prove to be a tough game.
WHat do you all think?
Go Utes!!!
Great post Proud! I think the roster is looking very good right now. So many starters sat out of the Spring Game that didn’t need the reps and didn’t need to put themselves at risk. For example, we didn’t get much of an idea of what the OL will look like and I’m optimistic the OL will take a step forward this year. My biggest areas of concern to address with the portal are: need to pick up 1 solid backup QB, 1 stud CB, and 1 to 2 solid WRs and we would be set. In my dream world, Whitt would convince a couple of our largest donors to provide the NIL needed to bring Martinez to Utah. If all of that happened, I’d have no problem saying the floor for the coming season is 11-1. Assuming Martinez isn’t an option due to lack of NIL, I believe the floor will be 9-3, most likely 10-2, with a realistic shot of going 11-1. But everything hinges on keeping Rising healthy. Otherwise, all bets are off. However, with our schedule and a healthy Rising, it’s CFP or bust this year IMO. Go Utes!!
Good points proud Ute and MD. One thought I might ad to the mix. Will Whitt and Ludwig utilize the talent we have at RB. We don’t have a JJ or TT on the roster. Spread the field with our fast and elusive RBs. Swing passes screens and off tackle outside runs. Oregon has done it for years with success.
I love this idea and I hope they can implement some form of it. It’ll keep Cam from getting hit as much as well if we can get the ball out to our backs quickly.
Martinez would be amazing!!
Kansas St fans were right! We have no idea what we are getting into! Playing USC and UW and Oregon and OSU and Arizona last year have not prepared us for the absolute GRIND the Big 12 is!!! We are doomed, I tell you DOOMED!!!
I feel the same way I felt pre-spring.
There are a lot of teams that “can” beat us. TCU, Baylor, Iowa St, UCF. There are some teams that will be tough for us to beat: Arizona, Oklahoma State. And there are teams we should beat, with or without a QB: Southern Utah, Utah State, ASU, Houston, BYU, Colorado.
A disappointing season is 9-3. We should be in the Big 12 title game. Anything less than that would be a disappointment. We recruit better than any Big 12 team. We have more depth than any Big 12 team. We have a better QB than any Big 12 team. And we should have the best defense in the Big 12.
We should win 10+ games. This is not a PAC-12 schedule. This is a strong MWC schedule. The top isn’t as good as when Utah, TCU and BYU were all ranked, but the bottom of the Big 12 is a lot better.
And after seeing Rising and Wilson play? We should win 10+. Anything less would be disappointing.
Need a QB transfer. The situation is less than ideal again.
I just don’t see any veteran QB better than Barnes being interested in transferring. If Rose were to transfer, I could see them looking to bring in an underclassman, but would that do anything to provide quality depth this year? Could you get a sophomore better than Rose? Maybe, but he would likely lack real game experience. I mean look at Nate Johnson. he transferred to that football power and QB factory Vanderbilt.
From the spring game it sounds like Wilson is likely the QB of the future. Starting a freshman/Sophomore QB makes recruiting quality QBs difficult as none of them want to sit around. We experienced that with Winn, Wilson and Snoop. The Rose injury a year ago impacted not only his progression but the position group as a whole.
Well lots of what ifs and stipulations. Regardless Utah coaches have a job to do and they need to bring in a transfer.
I am actually surprised Rose is sticking around. I watched a break down of the offense when he was out there. It was less than ideal. Most of the plays would have been sacks. Which isn’t entirely on him. Probably one was holding onto the ball too long. He had three dangerous throws. He also was missing wide open routes with passing lanes. A couple passes were behind or without any lead on it. He definitely regressed. He kind of reminded me of what NJ was doing last year. Don’t screw up mode.
Situation is what it is. If you come to Utah as a qb you get a fair shot I think.
“I am actually surprised Rose is sticking around. I watched a break down of the offense when he was out there. It was less than ideal. Most of the plays would have been sacks. Which isn’t entirely on him. Probably one was holding onto the ball too long. He had three dangerous throws. He also was missing wide open routes with passing lanes. A couple passes were behind or without any lead on it. He definitely regressed. He kind of reminded me of what NJ was doing last year. Don’t screw up mode.”
Shoot me
I think our RB problem statement is different, I would put it this way: It’s unclear whether we currently have a bona fide Utah RB1.
Job description of Utah RB1: workhorse, physical yet big play capable, 3-down back (run, block, catch).
Would love us to grab the OSU transfer. I doubt we land him, but I’d love it.
We don’t have a RB1 like in the past. We do have a bunch of quick hard to tackle in space backs. Rising more than capable of quick throws to the backs. Makes us much more difficult to defend. Rising could rack up some big passing numbers.
What I think is that it’s too damn long until we start.
9-3. Too many new opponents to plan for and while I think Utah’s roster is one of the best in the league, I don’t think it’s so much better that it can withstand key injuries. I envision incremental progress at most positions over 2023 and a healthy Rising runs Ludwig’s scheme very well. But I think the O-Line is setting up to be better in 2025 than 2024 so it’s hard to assume Utah goes right back to 41 or 42 ppg. I’d say more in the 35-36 range which may not be enough to overcome an all-new secondary or slightly diminished pass rush.
I’m also concerned about the LB’s. Past iterations really attacked the LOS whereas last year they were more passive and I can’t tell if that was by design or an acknowledgement by the staff that the personnel weren’t capable of doing that, yet. I will feel a lot better about that room if someone like Fotu can step up at MLB and become an eraser in the mold of Lloyd, Hansen, C. Barton, Bernard.,,
Ultimately, it’s tough in college to have all position groups peaking at the same time due to roster change. 2019 was one of those years where everything came together. 21, 22 and last year there were obvious weaknesses and I see the potential for a couple of rooms to be a “year-away” which is why I don’t feel comfortable assuming that all of the breaks with go Utah’s way.
Nine wins is a pretty reasonable base expectation and most of the uncertainty is upside imo. Ten is as likely or more likely than nine even. It’s really a pretty good outlook.
However we have a problem. Whenever you have a star if that star goes down your team probably won’t be able to pick up the slack. Especially given what we know about our team in particular. Word is that our 2nd best QB is a true freshman with a bum knee who we should have absolutely 0 expectation of seeing. A decision I would agree with no matter what happens. I guess as long as he is held out enough to preserve the redshirt we’re all good.
Our expectation goes down the absolute s**tter the moment Cam is out, which isn’t a terribly unlikely possibility. That’s just not a great place to be and knowing that we made the same (monumental) mistake last year I would be pretty disappointed if we did nothing to remedy that issue again. And so far it seems we haven’t
If Rose is roughly the Rose of last year and was more or less on Barnes’s level then I sincerely hope we start practicing for a mid year pivot to the triple option. If there’s no threat that we could do anything productive passing already then may as well lean into it. It can’t possibly be worse than what we got last year and we could probably win the Big 12 doing it lmfao.
Sure, if everything goes wrong for Utah and well for the rest of the B12, we could fall to 8 or 9 wins. Or injuries may be spread evenly and that would put Utah in the championship game. What B12 team does not have thin spots? The other front runners, Az has plenty to work thru over the summer with their changes. OSU and the Kansas schools are generally behind Utah in the preseason outlooks. I don’t feel the rest of the conference will pressure us. Do we know a contender that does not have thin spots or questions?
The RBs only lack the big guy thru the A gap for short yardage but there are other ways to pick up the line to gain. We often have a surprise in the RB group so that has a chance to be improved. Too many new opponents to plan for, well they also have 4 new P12 teams plus the regular rotation to deal with as well. The schedule feels like a MWC one with 2 maybe 3 bumps to get over. I am not seeing a Oregon St/Washington/Oregon/SC kind of game coming. Utah has 2 very good LBs, play 2 in the base D, will get Damuni back at some point, and usually develop another each year. I like the WRs and with the TEs and Bernard coming out of the backfield, I expect the passing game will do fine.
I don’t know if our QB2 or QB3 is any worse than any other team’s but I am quite fine with our QB1. The only contenders we play is Az and Oklahoma State with only one on the road, followed by 2 byes and a whole second half of non contenders.
You know I lean into an optimist but maybe we could relax and think about guys new to the rotation that will surprise. Lomu? Johnson? Singer? Lyons? Pittman? Calhoun? I think our DEs will take pressure off our CBs.
I wouldn’t say everything has to go wrong for Utah to end up with 9 wins. To me that’s the starting point (Vegas line and also the average Utah season since 2015) and then I look at each position group to see whether improvement is expected or just hoped for.
I think we are all counting on improved QB play as long as Rising stays healthy so I would add one win there. The only reason I don’t count it as two is because of Rising’s injury history.
O-Line: Two multi-year all conference starters left and it appears they will be replaced with a RS freshman getting his first starting experience (Lomu) and ??? (maybe Kump). Right now I would call that a wash at best with 2023 as they should benefit from better play around them.
RB: Feels like it will start with the by-committee approach and hope someone steps up like Thomas did in 21 or Moss in 2017. At this point I’d give it a slight negative and round to a wash.
WR: There’s certainly more talent than past years but the reports I saw out of camp were that other than Singer, no one had really distinguished themself. Add in the standard underusage of receivers and I don’t think that group will account for a full win. Especially since the blocking Enis and Vele provided the last few years was so important to the running game. So I’m positive but not positive enough to move the needle.
TE: Kuithe/King should be able to provide a reasonable facsimile to 21 Kuithe/Kincaid. But what really sets the room apart at Utah is when they have a Fotheringham to complement the receivers and I haven’t seen that level of play from the inline types.
Overall, I’d say that the offense should be worth 1.5 wins above my starting point.
DE/DT: I’m putting these together because I feel like any gains the Tackles make will be offset by the Edges. The Tackles have been pretty consistent in their production the last 2 years and it’s not at the level of Lotuleilei/Mokofisi or Fotu/Penisini. And I feel like they will need to be since peak 23 Edge play by Elliss/Fano is hard to replace. We’ve been waiting 3 years for Filinger to live up to his potential with a full season of healthy production. O’Toole will be good but will he be Elliss good? And I’m going to assume only 1/2 season of Fano. Again, a wash.
LB: I think we’ve already seen Reid’s peak and Damuni is out for the season. I had high hopes for J. Calvert when he transferred but he’s looked lost whenever he’s gotten on the field. Reynolds hasn’t played a competitive down in over 3 years. The primary backups from last season have all moved on. Sure Barton can probably move inside or Fotu (who I’m really high on) can take that spot but overall, I’m not seeing any reason to add a win. There’s potential but I wouldn’t lay my own money on it. On tax day 5 months before we start getting answers, I’d call it minus 1/2.
DB: 4 new starters and from what I saw in the spring game, the people behind them aren’t ready for primetime yet. While I have concerns at LB, this group scares me going into a league that loves to play shootouts. Individually, I think Johnson will be better at Free than the combination of Vaki/Bishop were. Ritchie needs to get back to his Covid level play because he struggled last year. In 2025 I expect Ritchie to be back to as good as Bishop but I don’t think he’s there yet. Vaughn should improve. Snowden will definitely improve. And whoever ends up at the other corner can probably approximate what Utah got from Broughton/Battle. But this group depends on everyone being at the top of their games at all times and we’ve seen better groupings get carved up by the not exactly pass happy offenses in the PAC. I’d go down 1/2 of a win but only because last year’s DB’s weren’t adept at turning the ball over. Those havoc plays can cover a lot of deficiencies and were sorely lacking in 23.
Defense, that puts me at minus 1.
Schedule wise, I saw a stat that Utah plays 3 of the top 7 teams in returning production (Ok State, Baylor and Iowa State). Utah goes on the road for Ok State which is used to playing Oklahoma’s talent every year. Gundy is every bit as good of a coach as Whitt.
Iowa State is my sleeper pick. Their QB threw for over 3k last year as a RS Freshman. If that was a road game, I think I’d pencil that one in as a loss right now but with their expected improvement year over year, I don’t think it will be an easy home game.
Then you follow that up with a short week cross country trip to UCF which may be ready to put up an Arizona 2023 type season with all of their young talent.
The bad teams will look bad against Utah but the tough ones, especially if they hit Utah at the right time, are all capable of winning.
So I give the schedule a minus 1/2 to get me back to my starting point. My mentality is to underpromise and overdeliver. I’ve gotten the last 3 years right so I’ve never been disappointed. I’ve been able to look at it from the perspective of how can it be even better instead of needing to join the chorus who show up to post that the team may never win another game after the first bad/shaky performance of the year.
Sure would like to hear OnlyU’s post spring perspective.
I think I’m going to see who leaves and who comes in before I want to even try and figure out what next season will bring. I still think it’s too damn long to wait until it all starts.
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