Tv deal chat…

[Ute2]

So… what’s the latest scuttlebutt on the TV deal? Where we all at?
1. It’ll be fine. Don’t believe the haters. These things take time with apple and Amazon.
2. Who knows, hoping for the best.
3. Our conference is dead. Giddyup Big 12!

If you’re the #4, who cares, “it’ll happen when it happens,” or any variation of that, don’t feel compelled to respond here. I want to talk tv deal.

[UteThunder]

I’m split between 2 and 3. Ultimately just hoping we wind up in a strong/stable Pac-12 or the BigXII.

[tanute3]

Tbh I’m not overly optimistic. I know money is king, but I’m a bit hesitant to tie ourselves to the Pac 12 for a “similar” deal as the Big 12 if we’re stuck on AppleTV/Amazon Prime/etc. The Pac 12 really needs eyeballs.

[AZUTE]

1. Everything will be fine.
Pac12 will sign a deal with ESPN and a streaming media source that will be in the 30 mil range.

The deal is taking no longer than any other tv deal in the past. The difference is the big12 took the first offer to set the market most likely leaving money on the table to appear like a wanted entity. Then set out on a smear campaign to devalue the Pac12.

This tv contract will take some time. There a lot of new moving pieces with the streaming side. A lot of lawyers doing their due diligence three times.

I’d be willing to bet the actual number has already been negotiated and they are just working on the finer points.

Have patience don’t listen to the haters

[D T]

Bingo.

[UrbanLiar]

NM

[TX_UTE]

I’m at 2, who knows? Now living in Dallas so would love to see SMU in the P12 as would get to see the Utes in person on a regular basis!

[UrbanLiar]

I posted something in the above space yesterday but decided it was probably just better to eliminate it after a few minutes because it was more confidential speculation. It wasn’t derogatory or anything. I just left “NM”. Can someone please explain how a NM post still gets downvotes with no content?

[RedRocks]

I am probably at ‘2’.

I don’t feel very confident in the market right now (ESPN layoffs, huge contracts for the top conferences) but I think the ‘media’ has overblown the ‘PAC12 is dead’ talk.

I doubt there was any real rush to get a deal done since the current contract is still going. That said, I would like to see some resolution. I am not interested in the current iteration of the Big12, so I hope the PAC12 sticks together (and dream that USC/UCLA come crawling back someday…).

[AlohaUte]

It doesn’t help that the overall economy has stalled. When the B12 signed, the Economy was healthier than it is today. It’s kind of a bad time to be negotiating a new TV deal.

[D T]

I suspect the economy will have rebounded to an extent by the time checks are written.

[belli1976]

The economy is fine we have had two solid quarters and a third will be announced next week. Plus there has been no official announcing of a recession in 2022.

[Charlie]

Hard to say the economy is fine. The last two quarters have been simply clawing back losses, the 2 year is still slightly negative so we are still looking for net progress with the new plan. If you are in NASDAQ you are defiantly sucking canal water. But more importantly, there are more forecast for poor performance than there is for positive performance, for the rest of the year. Geopolitical risks are the highest in decades and interest rates and inflation, although recent declines, are still high relative to recent years and subject to multiple developments that could produce quick negative results. These are significant, multiyear obligations that can give even big boys a pause. The status quo is not at all helping us. Who is it that is rushing to extend themselves out to maybe ’29 in a big way right now? We need to get this done in spite of current conditions.

[beaslad]

I’d be defiant about sucking canal water, too. Sounds awful.

[belli1976]

6.3, 7, 2.7, 7, -1.6, -0.6, 3.2, 2.6 are the last 8 gdp numbers. Not sure how you got negative gdp over the last 2 years. Ever positive quarter grew more than two small negative quarters.

Agree on your NASDAQ comment, I guess they didn’t learn from 2000 bear.

And the rest of your comments and all fear. Putin can’t even put away Ukraine. And do you think China really want to p**s off their largest importer. That would set back their economy decades. We are already shifting to India that now has a larger population than China.

[UTE98]

@belli1976 apples and oranges. GDP growth does not mean losses in the stock market have recovered. I’m a very aggressive investor and still down 12 1/2% from my high a couple years ago. Politicians can say GDP is worth X dollars but if you prop up the numbers due to inflation is it real growth? Or just on paper. Maybe I’m the only one who went from Steak to hamburger and now am trying to figure out what to cut out next. Gas it out of control, groceries are out of control, college tuition is out of control, CPI is out of control. Hey GDP is up!!!!! Big deal. So you’re saying my $20 dinner now is worth $40? Too bad my pay hasn’t gone up that much.

And as for the comment about China not wanting to p**s off the U.S. you been hiding under a rock? They don’t care. Their expanse into the Southern Hemisphere, Africa and other non-NATO countries was strategic to offset losses in trade with the U.S. And I’m not even going to start on the theft of intellectual property, talent programs, and attempt to recruit U.S. scientists.

I think we should tell China we aren’t going to pay back the debt we owe them until they rein in their economic warfare and see if they want to sink. From where I sit, you’re uninformed on many international political issues and domestic economic issues.

[belli1976]

Ute98

The original post was about the economy not the stock market. Which correct the market and economy are two separate items. Hopefully you don’t fall prey to the typical behavioral finance issues that most do.

Yep inflation is rough right now. Sounds like you are like most Americans, we got use to caviar when the whole time we should have stuck with hamburger. The previous decade was below historical inflation levels.

Hmmm China. What a catch for China!! The state of California’s economic output is larger than the whole CONTINENT of Africa.

If China truly “don’t care”, we would all be screaming WOLVERINES!! Not tied to GoBlue. IMO Swayze was better.

We don’t own Chinese debt. They own ours
If we don’t return their money they gave us when they purchased our treasuries and bonds or make the interest payments, then our credit rating would drop from the highest rating that anyone can have. Then we would have to pay higher interest rates to everyone. mmmm does that seem wise? They buy our debt because they have to, to facilitate their global trade. Now maybe we say they cannot buy anymore of our debt. That might work. But then there is the open market. So then we would have to stop Chinese neutral and pro countries buying our debt. Oh my gosh. This really is a web of going down a rabbit hole. What are going to do???

From where I sit, you watch too much Fox News and read too much Epoch Times. And have little to no real economic understanding.

PS GDP is reported in real terms. The meaning of real terms is net of inflation or in inflation adjusted terms.

[UTE98]

Can’t rememer the last time I watched Fox News, I may stumble across an Epoch Times article on occasion. However, most educated people with a Master or above are well read and don’t just read what strokes their line of thinking. I read a lot of contrasting news, information, and sources. Did you know most terrorists actually have Master’s degrees?

I have a BA in Poli Sci focused on East Asia, speak Chinese, have been to Beijing. I also have an MBA with an accounting emphasis, and did financial services. I’m pretty well rounded and uniquely qualified for the job I have.

While failing to pay our debt to China, which you correctly assumed was my premise, would be bad when looked at under current conditions. There are other factors which based on the information I have would  be sending a strong signal to the Central Committee of the CCP. China’s outreach isn’t just economic in Africa and the Southern Hemisphere, there are seeking to isolate the U.S. as much as possible, taking away as many allies as possible.  Sadly I have to really work to read enough “positive” news about China to offset the onslaught I receive in my inbox everyday. 

If you really want to dive deeper look up Civil-Military Fusion, and Belt and Road Initiative. Look at their five year plans, China 2025, China 2035, and China 2049. We in the U.S. think in four year Quadrennial cycles. Chinese think in decades, scores, centuries. China was separated for over 300 years during the Warring States period. They’ve been separated from Taiwan for about 74. Modern History of East Asia starts in 1117. 

Why did the U.S. use a Supersonic missile to shoot down a “weather balloon?” Maybe the U.S. was sending a strong message. These aren’t the days of ping pong diplomacy in the early 1970s. 

Thanks for your response. And hopefully you realize I’m not coming off half c**ked based on ignorance. Enjoy your day.

[Charlie]

Sorry, I was not thinking about GDP, I was trying to view the economy from the standpoint of a media company like ESPN. Having never worked for a media company, I was guessing that the economy was important to them as they sign up for significant long term obligation to pay our conference and I think they are most focused on the stock market as it relates to their own business. From the corporate finance perspective that I am familiar with, these guys follow the stock market a lot as it relates to their own stock. I just have never heard the finance guys reference GDP when considering a contract to assess the economy. Maybe I can just say I agree with AlohaUte and leave it at that.

[belli1976]

@charlie.

That makes more sense. The average American is currently more pessimistic on the economy than ever in economic sentient tracking tracking history. That is a huge negotiating tool for the media companies.

Hit George K had media experience. He may be able to pull something off.

[Central Coast Ute]

I didn’t see him saying GDP is negative

[D T]

I don’t see that the economy is “fine” when I go grocery shopping or fill up with gas, etc.

[belli1976]

DT – yea inflation is rough right now. Especially, after a decade of below average inflation.

One person does not make an economy.

[D T]

You must be one of the dozen people nationally who watch CNN/MSNBC.

Things went precipitously south on everyday Americans coinciding with the new leadership a couple of years ago.

[belli1976]

DT – Bloomberg is the best unbiased new source.

As for cnn and fox, read both and then the truth is somewhere in the middle.

Everything went to pot in 2021. My memory of 2021 was that the S&P 500 went up 28%, 2022 it was down 18% and ytd it is up 8%. Yea 2022 was no fun, if you road though your investments should be higher since Joe has been office.

Also, wages accelerated much faster than inflation in ‘21 and the previous decade.

Plus Trump is likely the biggest reason for inflation. He increased the US debt more than Obama while cutting taxes. Done in half the years too. Good ole reaganomics.

Capitalism is beautiful. We are dealing with the imperfections of capitalism. Ride it out and everything will be fine.

[dystopiamembrane]

Do y’all remember Reagan era mormonism within which the war in the pre-existence was compared to capitalism v communism?

[bopahull]

I don’t recall that ever being doctrine.

[dystopiamembrane]

I am not sure where one divides doctrine from religious thought, but it was definitely an unchallenged thought among a portion of the members during that time.

[dystopiamembrane]

It’s not a great stretch to relate Lucipher’s plan to socialism and the political system of our enemy at the time.

[UtesRule]

P A T I E N C E

[Ute2]

So we all agree then… 30 mil give or take and just get to the next round of realignment.  Glad we had this chat guys. 

[dystopiamembrane]

I do have a question for you. I understand that most working class, city-dwelling Americans no longer use cable TV as an entertainment option; most use streaming services or flip through Tik Tok. Are badgers a good source of Vitamin E?

[dystopiamembrane]

Asking for a friend…

[belli1976]

Only if it is a honey badger.

[Uphoric]

Here’s something to think about. . . Most everybody I know is switching or has switched to streaming services.  I know the sample is small but let’s think about linear vs streaming.  My baseline suggests linear broadcasting is  at greater risk for lower viewership.  What’s you opinion?

[dystopiamembrane]

I agree. Assuming that the goal is to get eyes on screens, the medium shift should be an important decision factor. Near future, content streamed directly into the visual cortex.

[Ute2]

I think you’re right.  That’s the future.  It’s just a scary jump to move away from linear where it currently is!  We’ll be the first major part of college football to make the leap….

[Uphoric]

What’s more,  It’s a “land” grab.  Companies like Apple, Prime, CW, as well as the linear companies are fighting for streaming programs.  TDS guys say there is no more space on linear networks. . .  The way I see it is the streaming companies have a big opportunity to take turf.  And oh BTW, I am in my late sixties and love streaming!!

[Uphoric]

The ONLY thing that I can confirm this morning regarding the  @pac12 media deal is @AppleTVPlus wants the ENTIRE tier one package and would use @Pac12Network as their production arm. @PrimeVideo is still there for a Friday Night Game. The linear partner remains the holdup.

— Jim Williams (@JWMediaDC) April 21, 2023

 

I would like this!!