You can’t tell me

[UtesRule]

The NBA isn’t rigged!!! Dallas had a 1% chance to get the #1 pick and guess who got the #1 pick!!

[//r00t4Utes]

You make a trade to help the Lakers it’s a rule.

Pelicans traded AD got #1 Zion
Mavs traded Luka get #1 Flagg

[Roy Rangum]

They don’t ever bother trying to pretend by showing the ping pong balls drop. It all happens in a back room and we just have to take their word for it.

[Kellso]

Tanking for 2-1/2, seasons for a 14% chance to get a number one pick is incredibly stupid. Since Angie came here, I’ve completely lost interest in the Jazz. One thing they did good, extended coach. I hope the Miller Group can secure an MLB team soon.

[Jim Vanderhoof]

I agree Kellso. I’m tired of all the analytics, the tanking, sitting guys out. Setting up so we can win later. All that so we have a 14% chance of getting 1 player that isn’t proven or could get hurt and never live up to expectations. Stockton Malone era had no 1st picks and made it to the finals playing as a team and good coaching.

Only 1 team wins the championship every year so why not try and make the playoffs every year and hope for a run or some luck with injuries. History always repeats itself. Play to win. Develop roles and find players who want to win and be part of the team and organization. Sloan is rolling over in his grave right now watching this debacle.

Can you imagine being a competitor and playing on a team that wants to lose so they can get a better player to replace you? Makes no sense to me.

[Red Rhino]

I’m done with the NBA!!

The probability of the Mavs, Spurs, and Sixers all beating the odds like this on the same night is 0.000681%

This is according to AI after I inputted the odds into Gemini:

“It’s important to remember that while individual events with low probabilities happen all the time, a particularly striking combination of low-probability events seem unusual.

Based on this simplified calculation.
This very low probability is why people might feel the outcome was rigged.”

This is the true reason people are tuning away from the NBA. It has turned into the WWWF.

[TheNuschler]

It isn’t, at least not current format. Watch the backroom analysis and the combination process. It’s a four-number combo, and if the line sequence falls on a team, they get the pick. It’s really bad luck and the probability is astronomically low, but it happened in front of the auditors, team representatives, and media. For the Jazz in the short term, they have to tank again cause next year’s pick to OKC has to be lower than 8, then it expires. It does suck to pay all that money to go to games and get forced to see a terrible product.

The bigger issue I have is how Jazz fans seem to have let Ainge and Smith off the hook for the Mitchell/Gobert trades. They’ve blown 2 straight drafts with nothing more than 4 role players. Flip and Collier have upside and are probably good rotational players 4 years from now. That’s it. That’s bad…. Laughable Danny can drop a “We’re going Big Game hunting!” once a summer when everyone knows the “Big Game” ain’t coming cause you ran off a young all-star and a 4-time DPOY. Full disclosure, I passively watch the Jazz and root for another NBA team. Danny is bad and riding the two fleece jobs he pulled off in Boston. Time to move on from that guy.

[TheNuschler]

Good article from the Desnews on the breakdown.

Sarah Todd

[thirtyfour-thirtyone]

I think the real failure occurred during the previous 2 seasons, when they only started “tanking” halfway through the season. They flushed those seasons for basically no purpose. At least this last season they successfully tanked.

This whole situation might be a blessing in disguise for the new hockey team, and the U basketball program, as there will not be much competition for eyeballs from the Jazz for another year or two.

[Rick]

Here is what I am sick of: the Jazz drafted and built a good playoff team with Williams and Boozer. Blew it up. They then drafted and built a decent team with Hayward. Blew it up or let it get blown up. They then drafted and built a really good team with Mitchell, Gobert, and Conley. Blew it up. The fired a really good GM in Dennis Lindsey for Danny Ainge. They have now stunk for 3 years straight, kept their GM and re-upped their coach. All while the owner is giving our hated rival millions of dollars. I cannot support this crap anymore. I will be putting my support 100% on Alex Jensen and the Utes this winter!

[TheNuschler]

Worthy transition… I’m actually excited to see what AJ can do. The Jazz are a dumpster fire after this.

[//r00t4Utes]

TheNuschler, this was my new tin foil hat theory this morning.

That AJ would be the “makeup” in next years draft. The dots connect that he’s played high school in Utah, went to TDS, by way of 7mil NIL, Jazz owner TDS alumni, and so is Ainge.

If it does happen, I may stop with the NBA. A certain fanbase would be insufferable… or even more than they are already. Hell, just look at Jimmer.. in his 10 day contract with PHX years ago he got more cheering than the Jazz and more media attention than any Utah player who are still playing in the NBA.

[UTE98]

@DataUte and Jimmer are besties!

[TheNuschler]

I could see that. Plan B, “wink, wink,” might be Cam Boozer. His old man suddenly just became a Jazz Scout. They will be angling for a top-two pick, with AJ and Cam likely going 1/2 in 2026. Their market’s current state of not being able to attract any realistic generational type player requires it.

[//r00t4Utes]

Rick, let me add some context.

Boozer chose to leave to the Bulls and not re-sign with the Jazz. The Jazz tried to hang on by trading for Al Jefferson as a Boozer replacement. But things with DWill and Sloan blew up, and so Sloan retired mid-season, and rather than appear to give into player demands and who they weren’t sure would re-sign, they traded DWill.

Hayward was tempered with, by Ainge, by the way of his college coach. And chose to leave to Boston

This most recent sucks. I will disagree with you on Dennis Lindsey. He did good building the team but fell short on the finishing touches. Could be the new owner felt the team hit the ceiling, or could be he wanted to make it his own team.

[utefansince79]

While 2 teams with rather low odds of being drawn (Mavs about 1.5% and Spurs about 6%) got first couple picks, it really wasn’t that unlikely for Jazz to not pull out at all. (Something like 47%).

Tanking is foolishly optimistic and rather bad mathematics.

Not going to waste any time at all watching what was once an entertaining product back in the glory years of Stockton, Malone, Hornacek, and others (and even Mitchell and Gobert were fun to watch recently) until they actually try to put a winning product on the floor and play the best players once in a while.

But looking forward to see what Alex can do and will be at the Hunty next season.

[Central Coast Ute]

Ever since I was a kid I knew it was rigged. What’s the point of a lottery anyway? To ensure the bigger markets get the better players. The only way to prove they aren’t rigging it is to do away with it altogether and do it like the NFL.

[voxnihili]

I don’t get the argument that the NBA is trying to get all the stars in bigger markets. Sure, they probably love when it works out that way, but the average TV market size (ranked among NBA markets) of the lottery winner over the last 20 years is 13.6 (in a league with 28 tv markets). Pretty much in middle, where I’d expect it to fall.

San Antonio (24th), New Orleans (27th), Milwaukee (25th) are all in smaller markets than the Jazz (23rd). Portland (20th) isn’t much bigger. If the league is trying to get the better players in the draft to the biggest markets via the top draft picks, they are doing a poor job.

[UteNamedOg]

Ainge and Zanik have done the equivalent of blowing off their foot with a shotgun because there was an annual 14% chance it would grow back by 2030.

[Holladay Ute]

I 100% think it was the right decision to tank last year. Even with the lower odds of winning the lottery, it’s still the best chance the Jazz have to win a title. If you want the best chance to make the playoffs and flame out in the second round, then you should definitely do what the Jazz have done for the past 25-30 years since Stockton and Malone. We had a lot of fun years w/ D-Will and Boozer, then Hayward and Gobert, and then Mitchell and Gobert. We never really were a contender though. D-Will and Boozer took us to the WCF one time and we really didn’t stand a chance against the Spurs that year (and ended up losing like 4-1).

If you want to go for a championship, then you have to endure the pain of tanking in hopes you land a superstar through the draft. Can you get a superstar in the mid to late first round? Yes, obviously and that always seems to be the biggest comeback to my argument here. Giannis, Kawhi, Jokic, etc. But the odds are obviously higher if you have a better pick. Nobody can dispute the facts around higher picks correlating w/ better NBA careers.

There was a 47-48% chance we were going to get the #5 pick . The #5 pick was the most likely individual pick of any. So while I am very disappointed about it, that’s not what upsets me. What upsets me is the the probability of Dallas + San Antonio + Philly getting all top three picks. I saw something that said the odds of this were 0.01%.

Deep down, I don’t believe the draft is rigged, but it sure does feel that way. Think about this:
Cleveland gets the #1 pick to draft LeBron (who is from there).
Chicago gets the #1 pick to draft Derrick Rose (who is from there).
Cleveland gets the #1 pick after LeBron jumps to Miami.
New Orleans gets the #1 pick after trading Chris Paul to LAC.
New Orleans gets the #1 pick after trading Anthony Davis to LAL.
Dallas gets the #1 pick after trading Luka Doncic to LAL.

If you want a #1 pick, then trade your all-stars to big markets like Los Angeles or Miami or home grow your own #1 pick.

Furthermore, the most hyped international prospect ever (Wembenyama) goes to San Antonio, the lottery team that year that might have the most international love. Tony Parker is French. Wembenyama is French. Coincidence? San Antonio moves up the draft in each of the last two years, providing them draft capital to potentially trade for…Giannis who is also European.

The 76ers? Also a very big market. They should have lost their draft pick to OKC (a very small market). Naturally, they move up in the lottery and get to keep their pick.

This is a TON of coincidences to occur since the turn of the century. The odds of all these coincidences happening is??? EXTREMELY LOW!

[Central Coast Ute]

If the draft isn’t rigged, why would Dallas make the trade they did without any guarantees on the back end? They pretty much gave Doncic, one of the best players, away.

[Holladay Ute]

I totally agree. But think about the implications of the draft being rigged. If they were caught doing that, there would be such massive lawsuits from all the small market teams, not to mention a huge proportion of the fan base would immediately boycott the product and never watch again (including me). There’s a ton of downside for them rigging it. Also, they use independent auditors to audit the process and they allow team representatives to watch the process, which is why I think the Jazz GM defended the lottery as not being rigged.

[Kellso]

I completely disagree. 14% chance of getting a player who might work out? Still, it starts over every year at 14%. The Jazz have a great coach, get him the best players available every year and let him work. I really like what he is capable of. If not, let him and some of the players go. So, they can pursue a championship. The Jazz are a dumpster fire.

[Holladay Ute]

You can look at the list of #1 picks in the last 10-15 years. Sure, there’s one or two that were big busts, but the vast majority of them were very good NBA players for multiple years (and many of them were all-stars). I’ll admit I don’t know the actual stats, but I’m sure you wouldn’t dispute that a higher draft pick correlates w/ a better NBA player, right?

Here’s the other thing about tanking. 14% chance for #1, but 100% chance of top 5. Washington and New Orleans also dropped but they dropped to worse picks b/c their tank wasn’t as successful as ours. That could be the difference between us getting the guy we want and not getting the guy we want. There’s the upside argument to tanking, but there’s also the downside argument (we limited our downside by tanking).

Like I said before, if you were happy w/ 25 years of mostly playoffs but early round playoff exits, then be upset about the tanking. But that strategy hasn’t resulted in a title for the Jazz in the modern era of NBA (i.e. for the past 25+ years). The Jazz are trying something different. I agree, it’s painful. I think it’s worth trying. I’m not going to declare the tanking strategy a failure until all the cards have been played. If we don’t get anywhere in the next 5-10 years, then I will agree that it was a failure (but I still wouldn’t agree that it was a mistake…it’s worth trying something else to try and hang a banner). Obviously, Will Hardy believes in the strategy to tank. Otherwise, he would not have signed a long-term extension just barely. At the end of the day, it is almost impossible to win a championship if you don’t have one MVP-caliber player. The Jazz have not had that since Stockton and Malone, and guess what? We have never been back to the Finals.

[Kellso]

Where were Stockton and Malone drafted? If you’re a gambler, okay. I’m not. The Jazz following was strong for years. It’s not any more.

[Holladay Ute]

What do you think the odds are of drafting a Hall of Famer at #16? And what do you think the odds are of drafting a two-time MVP at #13? And then what do you think the odds are of drafting a Hall of Famer at #16 in one year and then drafting a two-time MVP at #13 in the very next year? Seriously, tell me what you think it is.

This might help. Here is the % of draft picks that went on to become all-stars since 1980 (the source is from NBA.com):
#1: 77%
#2: 34%
#3: 49%
#4: 29%
#5: 31%
#6: 20%
#7: 20%
#8: 11%
And the % goes down the further down the list you go. Any online source will demonstrate the correlation between draft picks and player quality. Basically the higher the pick, the more likely you are to draft a better player.

No, I am not a gambler. I was a math major that studied probability in college.

The odds of Utah picking a Hall of Famer at #16 one year and another one at #13 the year after = extremely low. Obviously I’m thrilled they were able to do it once. Will they ever do it again? I wouldn’t gamble on that!

[Holladay Ute]

Also, I think the Jazz have sold out like 300+ games in a row? They ranked above average in attendance last year despite being the worst team. I’m a season ticket holder and they raised my prices. They can’t do that if they’re struggling to fill the seats. The following is clearly still very strong. This obviously is likely to change as the tanking lasts longer and longer.

[Holladay Ute]

Also, I think the Jazz have sold out like 300+ games in a row? They ranked above average in attendance last year despite being the worst team. I’m a season ticket holder and they raised my prices. They can’t do that if they’re struggling to fill the seats. The following is clearly still very strong. This obviously is likely to change as the tanking lasts longer and longer.

[Jim Vanderhoof]

Holladay you make some great points. Obviously management agrees with your takes. Analytics have taken over decision making in all professional sports and even college. When an old school coach like Whitt uses analytics in game situations you know it has to be working.

As a fan and competitor tanking is not in my vocabulary. I can’t imagine playing for a team where your goal was to lose and be put in situations to fail and lose your job to a 1 and done college kid.

I’ve been huge basketball fan since I was 10. I never missed a Ute game and became a Jazz fan when they moved to Utah and never missed a game. I haven’t watched more than 5 Jazz games the past 2 years. Viewership is down 51% in the NBA. I wonder what analytics would say about that.

[Jim Vanderhoof]

Can you imagine Sloan being told to tank. He would resign. What’s the analytics of the Jazz winning an NBA title? Put the best team on the floor every night and try and win every game. The goal should be to make the playoffs every year and let the chips fall.

[Holladay Ute]

Jim, we’re on the same page in terms of our distaste for tanking. Totally agree w/ you there. You have to be very careful to not build a loser culture. It worked out for OKC and Houston though! So while I don’t like it (and what it stands for), I do think it’s our best chance (at this time) to try and get an MVP-caliber player that could take us back to the Finals someday. The Jazz have very rarely had top 5 draft picks. Danny Ainge has a pretty good track record of drafting well. Give us a few years of that and hopefully we find somebody great. And then we have a bunch of other assets like more picks and some good young players that we could maybe package up for a disgruntled all-star somewhere, etc. The tank could end pretty quickly if we draft one great player. Makes it that much more painful that we dropped out of the top three this year.

I have heard the viewership is down a lot, but then I have also heard that it’s misleading (and the evidence being that the NBA supposedly just recently signed a big fat media contract). That said, I think the NBA product has never been less interesting. You’re watching 2 hours of 3s and free throws. Super boring. Tanking is lame. I would prefer relegation, but I would also prefer that the draft goes the same way the NFL does it (no lottery odds, just pick where you landed). I despise the load management and “resting” concept, especially when you’re making that much money. The regular season should be half as long. And then I’m also turned off by the culture of the NBA generally (I still like the culture at the Jazz; I wish Ryan Smith wasn’t a TDS guy, but he does seem like a good person that cares about fans, that does really want to bring a title back to Utah, and is a good representative of the state). All of that said, I only watched like two Jazz games last season! And I have historically been a huge Jazz fan! I’m on the hockey train, it’s been a ton of fun.

[Author]

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