BYU/Florida Deja Vu

[UteThunder]

A coaching decision in the Florida game reminded me of last year’s BYU game. 

In Provo, down 10-7 in the 2nd quarter, Kyle took a risk and went for it on a 4th & 2 at the BYU 8 yard line. Had we settled for the FG, we tie the game at 10 a piece and quiet a hostile crowd. As it turned out, we failed to convert and gave BYU a huge momentum swing. They went down the field to score a TD and take a 10 point lead into halftime and we could never really get back in the game.

In Gainesville, down 13-14 in the 3rd quarter, we took another risk and went for it on a 4th & goal from the UF 1 yard line. Had we settled for the FG, we take the lead 16-14 and quiet a hostile crowd. Instead, we failed to convert and gave Florida a big momentum swing. They didn’t score a TD on the following possesion but we did and then failed on the 2 pt attempt. Taking the FG, we wouldn’t have had to go for 2 on our following TD and our lead would have been 23-14 instead of 19-14. Had everything played out the way they did, we would have had a 30-28 or 30-29 pt lead on our last possession and we are trying to run out the clock instead of trying to score.

Obviously we have no way of knowing how things would have played out if we had taken the FG, but it just seems like the smart play to take the FG when you are on the road with a hostile crowd. Quiet their crowd and prevent them from taking a game-changing momentum swing with a big 4th down stop. 

[Utesbyfive]

Riverboat Kyle has been out on the edge a few times too often lately.

[pedro]

If a decision you’re making in the 2nd qtr of that high of a scoring game costs you the game, you’ve got bigger problems than that one decision.  Reality is the plays were there and we could have made them, but Florida did and we didn’t.  I mean, should we start disecting Cam’s decision to through to Kincaid instead of Kuithe, etc… or do we just realalize that sometimes things don’t turn out the way we planned?

[UteThunder]

It was the 3rd quarter of the Florida game, not the second, and it was a critical 4th down where the decision we made would lead to one of three outcomes: 3 points, 7 points, or 0 points. The choice we made resulted in 0 points in what ended up being a 3 point game.  Taking the almost guaranteed 3 points very well could have been the difference in the game. So no, this is not like dissecting whether or not Cam should have thrown a pass to Kuithe or Kincaid.

It was a bad decision a year ago in Provo and it was a bad decision again on Saturday in Gainesville.   

[EagleMountainUte]

I think you can absolutely stress the decision making of Rising in that situation.  YOU DON’T FORCE IT!!

He realizes this on first down and throws it away. You can’t take a sack and you still have a chip shot FG to send it to OT. YOU CAN’T TAKE A SACK. YOU CAN’T FORCE A THROW!!

Those are the situations. You need to score on two attempts. It needs to be pretty much 100% clear to score or you get rid of it in the back of the endzon. That was the situation.  If Rising scores we still worry about the RedZone troubles. You can forgive TT tripping on Rising. You can’t forgive turnovers in the RedZone though.  

[Stone]

I agree with this. All of this “woe is us” sentiment and questioning of coaching, etc. evaporates if Cam throws a TD instead of an INT. Cam is awesome. But he made a mistake. He knows that. If Cam pump fakes and then throws to Vele over the top for a TD, everyone is talking about Cam’s heroics, how Utah went into a hostile environment and came out victorious, etc. I am not talking about moral victories here, I am merely saying that the line between a loss and victory is sometimes incredibly small. The team played well, and it was a fun game. Alas, a single play separated an incredible victory from a heart-wrenching defeat.

[EagleMountainUte]

I still really question how good this defense is. I thought the Offense would be able to make up for a lot of deficiencies. With RedZone problems emerging again it has me concerned. Everyone seemed so focused on losing Covey. Lloyd was the biggest anchor on that defense for several years now.  

[krindor]

I mean, that’s the way it goes… 4th down decisions are high risk, high reward.  If we’d gotten the TD it would have been a huge win as well.  And sometimes the risk is worth it.

Against Ohio St, we went for it on 4th and 1 while up 7 from our own 38 with 6 minutes left in the first half.  Turned the ball over in our own territory and let Ohio St get a quick score before half and get them back into the game…  Or no, we got a 62 yard Cam Rising touchdown that helped us push the lead to 14.

Against Oregon in the PAC championship game our offense was pretty ineffective in the first half.  But luckily on the first drive we converted a 4th down on a TD drive.  The next 3 Utah drives went punt, interception, interception, but instead of being locked in a defensive struggle, we were suffocating Oregon…because we had that extra touchdown.

If you’ve got Tavion Thomas and Cam Rising and it’s 2nd and goal from the 1 yard line?  Choosing to go for it on 4th is the least of your issues.

[UTEopia]

I don’t think going for the TD was the wrong decision. The decision I did not like and that ended up costing the game was going for 2 when there was no need to chase points at that time. Analytics probably dictated Kyle’s decision, but I had always been told that you do not chase points by going for 2 until you absolutely need to do it to tie the game at the end.

[2008 National Champ]

The decision when scoring a TD to go up by 5 is that an extra point does not help. I don’t have the percentages at hand but the calculation is that forcing the other team to score a TD AND extra point to tie you is more advantageous than allowing them to take the lead on a TD/XP. So 5 or 6 is considered a wash.

The problem is that the math only works with limited possessions left in the game. Early in the 3rd quarter, you can reasonably expect each team to get at least 3 more possessions so “guaranteed points” have more impact than “assumed points”. Mid 4th quarter on, I fully support going for two to maximize your lead. Instead, Whitt chose the higher risk option which would not necessarily have changed the game if successful because of the # of chances Florida would have to negate that advantage.

All of that said, if Whitt wants to go for two there, I can live with it. But I would much rather keep the ball in Rising’s hands to make a play instead of a double handoff behind the LOS which did not involve any motion or attempt to influence the defense away from the point of attack. When run properly, that is a slow developing play which requires the conflict defender (backside DE/LB) to choose between crashing the Bernard inside run and hopefully ignore Kuithe on the reverse. Instead, that DE/LB kept containment, poured himself a cup of coffee and had a couple of bites of his sandwich while waiting for Kuithe to run right into him. I don’t know how to post a clip of an individual play but that one had zero chance against the D Florida called and was overly complex for the situation. It is a good play on 2nd and 3 at your own 30 when you are trying to spread Florida out and set up a future call. It’s not a good play when you don’t have a lot of space to work with and can’t afford the D to make the proper choice.

[2008 National Champ]

This is the best I can come up with for replay. The failed two -point conversion is at the 8:03 mark. If you look at the pre-snap read, Utah is lined up with a single receiver to the left sideline (Vele?), Kincaid inline TE right, Kuithe at H off his hip and I assume Enis split out to the right. Florida has moved their safeties deep into the box to give a 4-5-2 look showing press man against the receivers and has DE/OLB and WLB uncovered to the outside of the LT. With no motion to influence the weak side defenders effectively have a 2 on 1 against the LT while the other 7 defenders only deal with potentially 6 blockers for the assumed Bernard run.

At the snap, Rising immediately hands off instead of holding in place long enough to sell the zone read and carries his fake to the left flat. The O-Line blocks down and to the right leaving the DE/OLB for #52 (Mokofisi?) to pull and clean up but #52 whiffs leaving the DE/LB free to crash on Bernard while the WLB tracks Rising. Kincaid takes a step back and doesn’t block anyone while 3 Florida defenders are watching Kuithe run the reverse action and in perfect position to stop Bernard if he keeps the ball (8:07).

The play never had a chance and I would have liked to see Rising check into something else, assuming he had the right to. Effectively, that was a 6 on 9 situation since Rising was a decoy and Bernard/Kuithe were both in the backfield.

[Rick]

You live by analytics, you sometimes die by them.  Going for two and not kicking that field goal was 4 points and we lost by 3.  Your thoughts on quieting the crowd are also valid.  

[Distantute]

Nobody kicks it on that 4th from goalline. What a joke. We just ran it down their throat. The bad call was the 2 pointer. Get the xp and its 2 point game at the end. No cam pick. I dont know why you go for 2 in 3rd quarter when ahead.