Question for…

[Ute2]

All you expansion gurus out there…

So we’re likely taking SMU and SDSU. I understand that SDSU is a given no matter what.

What is preventing us from going in and poaching from the actual Big12? In researching tv ratings and stuff, it seems the most valuable move would be to poach the top 3-4 programs already in the big 12, cripple it and go forward that way. I know Kliavkoff tried it but USC scuttled it awhile back.

But what’s stopping us from trying again?

Is it a new GOR in place? Is it that the big12 teams don’t want to dance anymore? Thoughts?

[tanute3]

I think it’s crazy to assume that Kliavkoff hasn’t already thought of this and explored options. Big 12 teams may be skeptical about joining the conference knowing that Oregon and Washington could eventually jet off to the Big10 in the future. I can understand pros and cons of Big12 teams wanting to stick together. If you’re certain that UO and UW aren’t leaving, the Pac12 is clearly the better option – but nobody knows that for sure.

[Utah]

The Big 12 took a huge paycut to get a deal done and lock these teams in ASAP. So, you can’t get a Big 12 team. 

The estimates on the Big 12 were 40-50 million per team. They signed for 30. The Big 12 knows it’s in trouble with Texas and Oklahoma leaving. 

The PAC-10 is in a weird spot. UCLA doesn’t want to go to the B1G. The B1G people, not the commissioner but the schools and fans, don’t want USC or UCLA. 

In 2030 years when the B1G expires, what will happen? Sure, USC and UCLA will have made a lot of money but will they have been successful? USC is going from the top program in the PAC to the fourth best program in the B1G behind Ohio St, Michigan and Penn St. 

Will they be ok with that? 

So, back to the PAC. You just need to survive. You need to get more than the Big 12, even if it’s just a few dollars. If you can lock UW and OU into a GOR, you are golden. Stay together until 2030, then USC and UCLA will come back. 

Stay together and make the playoffs every year. When USC is at home and Oregon and UW and Utah are in the playoffs, USC will come crawling back. 

The good news is, OU and UW are B1G or PAC only. And the B1G doesn’t want them. If OU and UW do anything dumb, UA, ASU, CU and Utah can just bail to the Big 12. 

Worst case scenario for Utah is we are in the Big 12. Best case, the PAC survives and Utah makes the playoffs 3+ times in the next 7 years and USC/UCLA come back in 2030. 

[AlaskaSteveUteAlum]

I agree. I don’t think that UCLA and USC in the B1G, and OU and Texas in the SEC, are going to work out as they have planned. For a variety reasons, the most obvious being the historical problem with a 16 team league, these “super” conferences will implode. The only question is how long will it take. The PAC-10 should just be patient about any expansion, because it may not only get UCLA and USC back, but could also get OU and Texas.

[AlohaUte]

If I remember correctly though, the new media deal with the Big-12 hasn’t been signed yet and the GOR is not in place. But I could be wrong.

[Roy Rangum]

Now this is the information I’m most interested in. If the GOR hasn’t been signed yet, everything is on the table.

And contrary to what others are saying, I think the super conferences are inevitable and will be the future. Although, I do like the ideas thrown out on this thread if it ends up playing out that way.

[Utah]

This thought just hit me. Texas won’t be happy being a mediocre team in the SEC. Same with USC. When the next GOR expire it wouldn’t shock me to see a big push back to a P4. 

IF the P12 can survive, it wouldn’t shock me seeing USC, UCLA, TX, and OU joining the P12 for a 16 team conference. 

The pure irony being all the TX schools left out of the P4 but SMU being in. Lol. 

[Utah]

There is zero chance they have released schedules without signatures. 

[AlohaUte]

I don’t think the new media deal affects 2023 at all. I think it takes effect 2024 or 2025.

[Ute2]

I’m in no mood to have any college football season interrupted by a collective bargaining dispute..

[UteFanatic]

USC and UCLA are never coming back. This narrative needs to die, it’s not based in reality.

I do agree that the next round of realignment will be crazy. Nobody in the Pac12 or the Big12 (except for UW and UO) should feel all that secure because there will be a massive, nationwide shakeup when the ACC GOR expires.

[prestitute]

I liked your post, but on point you are wrong: USC will not come crawling back. That isn’t what they do, and sadly, they will never have to. UCLA though, could possibly come back, IMO, if the PAC survives (which is by far my preference). If you get UCLA and can partner them with SDSU as travel, and then the PAC also pulls in 3 schools from the B12 (again, this isn’t near term) to pair with SMU, we could have a great, and somewhat sustainable conference at 16. 

Since we don’t really need divisions anyway, you can have a lot of flexibility in the scheduling and be more cautious with travel costs, as long as it is balanced with fairness

Ore/OSU
UW/WSU
Cal/Stan
UCLA/SDSU
UofPay/AnuSU
UU/CU
SMU/Tech or TCU or KSU
other OSU/KU
Tech or TCU or 

I think that is a damn fine conference with a lot of opportunity, great BB, and strong competitive FB programs. 

[John]

Here is the problem with your analysis. Unfortunately, the west coast has very little interest in college sports these days. The professional teams suck up the money and the fanbase. Think what the hit would be if Salt Lake had a professional football team. The Jazz have poached the corporate tickets that used to go to Utah games.

Absent a long-term GOR from Oregon and Washington will be hard to get a good media deal. SMU adds nothing. The fan base in Dallas is either Texas or Texas A&M. Same thing in Houston where my daughter lives. She got her MBA at the University of Houston, and nobody cared about their sports teams.

The other major issue for the PAC is location. Unless you are a fan of the teams playing, most of America is in bed. Nothing can change that fact.

But all of college sport will have a reckoning down the road. First, the NIL deals have allowed the boosters back in the game and they will control things in the future. The example was Rashada who was promised $14M at Florida, the booster backed out, and Florida had to release him or he might have told someone that the coach promised him the money was good. He was originally at Miami and bolted to Florida for the cash.

Second, the transfers every year with the portal will have a long-term effect. Some kids are now playing at their 4th school.

Third, California is going to allow athletes to unionize. There is a similar bill introduced in Congress. Unions work on seniority and not merit.

I say enjoy the ride now because it may all fall apart within 10 years.

[Utah]

Unionization is good. It will then allow for regulation. You’ll end up with rules like the pro sports have. Salary caps, roster limits, where the money can come from, etc. 

One half of the country has villianized the word “union” but it’s a wonderful thing. Sure, there are bad unions (ironically, the bad ones are usually supporting people that get their support from the people who hate unions) but overall they helped make this country the power it is and it would help get college sports under control. 

[John]

You think unions are good for college sports. Then a senior files a grievance if and underclassmen takes his starting spot.  Here is a better proposal then. Make all athletes be admitted to universities with the same grade requirements as other students. After all, isn’t college about getting an education to prepare you for the real world?

[prestitute]

Terrible take, John. This is not how sports unions or real unions work, honestly. And these kids deserve a large share of the revenue that they are generating. NIL is showing how valuable these young adults really are. Look at the NFLPA, etc. there are unions there, and players get beat out all the time. What a union would do, for example, could do in your scenario is to make sure that ALL of the players have guarantees on their schollies (and institutions add in behavioral clauses, etc. in negotiation). Unions are why we have most of the best worker policies and protections that exist. Unions are probably the main reason we ever had a middle class, and their erosions have really hurt the US Worker. 

[HoosierUte]

I tend to agree with Utah. I don’t see any governing body really stepping into the NCAA’s shoes and trying to control the situation. Collective bargaining with an organized player group may be the only way to prevent this system from continuing to careen off the rails.

I don’t understand John’s fear of a senior filing a grievance. Is this something that happens in pro sports that have players unions?  

[prestitute]

Demogrpaphics change. The WEST and Texas are growing a ton. The PNW is in a specifically strategic location as they have the one thing the rest of the west needs most: WATER. That may seem a little silly in this discussion, but it absolutely applies. As the population of the western US grows, look for everything west of the Cascades and that vicinity to really, really grow. There are really not a ton of obstacles to the PNW states preventing growth. Seattle proper is still pricey, but all around that area is a better deal than SLC/Vegas/Phx, etc. areas with more water and better air quality. remote work has really changed the equation as well.

While it won’t all be remote 365 days a year, there is a lot of remote work that is here to stay, and a lot of bigger companies, especially in tech, will be a lot more open to remote work from many positions despite the current calls for return to office. I am a director at a major semiconductor company and have peers at most of the big tech companies. The leadership in that industry realize that everyday office work is never fully coming back. My office is in Silicon Valley, but I live in Boise currently. Growth here has been insane. The future demographics are going to add a ton of value to some of these schools soon, even as interest overall wanes. You can say that Cal and Stanford don’t draw a ton of eyeballs, but they do still have some VERY wealthy alums. UW and Oregon aboslutely draw both eyeballs and fans. And even Oregon State and WSU gets shots at being very competitive. And the more eyeballs in that market, the more chance there is for bigger media deals.

The craziest thing though is that we live in a world now, where it may not totally make sense to have conferences at all aside from tradition and regulation. The future could easily be one where we have inidividual games of packages sold off. I would totally pay $200 or more for a watch pass of JUST all of Utah’s games and other sports. The real threat of this being a possibility will really drive up the price for games if a network wants exclusives. Hell, I would much rather have Utah own its games than give them to the P12. In todays day and age, we could make a lot more from our fans to fund our program this way. And that should scare a lot of networks into paying more.      

[Ute2]

Bold thoughts from ‘Utah’!

i hope he’s right!  I confess, I’m a little skeptical.

 I am excited to watch UCLA be Nebraska.  I hope USC suffers the same exact fate.  I do think they can be a too much of a recruiting juggernaut though.  

thanks for all the insights!

[UteFanatic]

Already been mentioned, but the Big12 GOR is likely in place already. Pac12 had it’s chance to poach the Big12 after TX and OU left, but USC prevented it. That ship has sailed. 

It’s about survival now, just like the Big12 had to do a few years back. Expand with less-than-desireable candindates, secure the best TV deal possible, and hunker down until the next round of realignment. And there will be another round. When the ACC GOR expires, craziness will ensue.

 

[DataUte]

Mid-2030s will be bonkers as ACC expires 2035-36 academic year (20 year deal!), B1G expires 2034, SEC not sure (expires 2023, then they’ll extend with UT/OU joining 2025 [or 24]), Big 12 resigning soon – not sure if it will be 7-10 years.