Search Results for 'sagarin'

[shakeitsugaree]

It was split; Sagarin predicted a loss, S&P+ a win. Both systems predicted wins over Colorado, before last week’s loss. Now the predictions are:

@ Furd L
v Zona W
v USC W (this is a bit misleading – S&P+ actually predicts a tie, so I gave us the W)
@ UCLA W
@ ASU W
v Ore W
@ Colo L

[Tony (admin)]

Did they predict us to lose at WSU?

[shakeitsugaree]

Well … that loss was, uhm, not good.

Both Sagarin and S&P+ predict we go 5-4 in conference this year. The real bummer is that we are predicted to beat SC, but lose to Colorado.

S&P+ predicts the following finishes: USC 7-2 *south champion by head-to-head win over Colorado*, Colorado 7-2, Utah 5-4

Sagarin: USC 7-2 *south champion*, Colorado 6-3, Utah 5-4

Wish I had better news.

[shakeitsugaree]

Short version: S&P+ says we go 7-2 and win the south; Sagarin says we go 6-3 and SC finishes 7-2.

One thing I’ve been thinking about this week is how much I like Connelly’s S&P+ metric. There’s been a lot of talk on this site about whether statistics are meaningful or useful in any way. I would recommend reading this explanation of S&P+ (I’ve linked to this before) before you decide to disregard statistics. You can find the S&P+ rankings here. Connelly claims that S&P+ tends to hit between 51 and 54 percent against the Vegas spread. Not bad. BTW, S&P+ says we win this Saturday; this is the difference in whether we take the south, because SC is also predicted to finish 7-2, but we would hold the head to head tiebreaker.

For a brief version of the long explanation, S&P+ evaluates a team’s performance in what Connelly defines as the Five Factors of winning: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, finishing drives, and turnovers. These factors are weighted to reflect their relative importance in predicting wins; Connelly states in his explanation that efficiency is the single most important stat in creating wins. What is efficiency? It is based on ‘success rate’ which Connelly defines thusly:

First downs: gaining at least 50 percent of necessary yardage (usually 5 yards) is successful.
Second downs: gaining at least 70 percent of necessary yardage is successful.
Third or fourth downs: gaining at least 100 percent of necessary yardage is successful.

There’s more to S&P+, but in looking at the breakdown in how each team is ranked, this system makes intuitive sense. For example, Utah as the #1 defense as determined by S&P+; Alabama has the #1 offense.

What do you guys think? Are there better analytics out there that anyone knows about?

[UtMtBiker]

We need help from WSU in Pullman in 2 weeks. Is there anyone who would bet on Utah to win that game? 

[shakeitsugaree]

Our loss to Washington didn’t really impact our Sagarin ranking, but wins by other teams in the conference have changed the Sagarin W-L predictions for us.

We’re still predicted to win all our games against the Pac12 south, and the game against Oregon. We’re still predicted to lose to Stanford. We are now predicted to lose to Wazzu, by a very slim margin. This puts us finishing 6-3, with head to head wins against USC and Colorado.

Sagarin predicts both USC and Colorado to finish 6-3; USC’s schedule is the easiest – they miss UW and Oregon. The thing that worries me the most is that Sagarin is predicting that USC loses at home to WSU. I don’t know about you, but that makes me very, very nervous. If USC wins that game, our chances to take the south are very much in jeopardy.

As far as our chances at 6-3, I think they are pretty good. S&P+ is not that impressed with Oregon; despite being 3-0, they dropped -5 spots in the rankings to land at 32; Our loss dropped us -13 to 37. Sagarin ranks Oregon at 39, Utah 28. Assuming we lose to WSU, the win at Autzen is absolutely critical – but totally achievable.

One thing I noticed when looking at the S&P+ numbers, is that our special teams ranking is very poor: 87. Our defense is ranked 2 and our offense is – ahem – 108. I would expect our ST ranking to improve, drastically, over the course of the season. Which would then align the S&P+ rankings more with the Sagarin rankings, giving me more confidence in the Sagarin predicted finish.

The south is in reach – just need to win the games we should, and get a little help from WSU in the Coliseum.

[shakeitsugaree]

Sagarin says we’re the best team in the south, as of today

His website is a hot mess – sorry

This system predicts we should win every game against Pac12 south division opponents. It predicts wins over Oregon and Wazzu. Unfortunately, it also predicts we will lose to Washington and Stanford. Seven wins should be enough to take the south, no?

OK – I tried to resist, but Imma go all fangirl for a moment:

I can’t help feeling some 2015 deja vu this year. I remember being underwhelmed by our start that year – which, looking back, was silly since we beat a 10-3 Michigan team in our opener. But then came that awesome ass kicking at Autzen. I get the feeling that Whitt and Co. are really, really, REALLY hyped for this game on Saturday. Like they’ve been preparing specifically for this game since Fall camp – just like they did for Oregon in 2015. I think they pull out all the stops and absolutely ball out to beat the Fuskies!!!!! Sagarin be damned!!!! I just hope he’s right about all the other games … well, maybe not the Furd game, but all the other OTHER games … you know, where we win.

[PlainsUte]

Yes, the FCS Coaches ranked them 8th in Div I FCS.  2017 Big Sky Champs, finished 5th in 2017 FCS poll.  No pushover.  Sagarin’s final predictor from 2017 does provide an estimate… Utah by 16, including 2.4 pt home advantage.

Not sure you’ll find anyone to take that bet except some guy named Nephi behind the Maverick in Ogden.

[PlainsUte]

Las Vegas has OKC favored by 3.5 Sunday.  Sagarin predictor: pretty much even, but OKC favored given NBA 2.5 pt home court factor.

[Tim]

Sure, with the caveat that I’m an amateur.

Saw the question in another thread about athleticism. Penn State’s pretty athletic. Ken Pomeroy recently listed the top dunking teams in The Athletic ($$$), and Penn State was No. 5 (he bumped Penn State from his ultimate top-5 list, though, in favor of Villanova after he adjusted for defenses faced).

A big part of the athleticism is Mike Watkins, however, and he won’t play tonight.

Starting 5:

John Harrar – A little-used freshman, at least until Watkins went down. 6-8ish. Had been committed to Army to play football when he was recruited by Penn State last spring as a basketball player. Decent hands, not explosive, fundamentally sound (but with very little playing experience).

Lamar Stevens – Sophomore, good leaper, excellent mid-range shooter, can make threes but not in bunches and hasn’t attempted many in the NIT. Listed at 6-8, 6-7 might be closer. Good rebounder, very good all-around player, decent handle for a big, one of Penn State’s key cogs. Honorable Mention All Big Ten. Pretty low-key personality, when feeling confident can be nearly unstoppable. Can be a matchup problem or have matchup problems, depending on the size and quickness of the opponent. Pretty good shot blocker.

Josh Reaves – Junior. Tremendous defender, All Big 10 defensive team. Good hops, can make three pointers. Long. Quick. No. 11 in the country in steal rate. Does all the little things better than anyone on the team.

Shep Garner – Senior. Great shooter. Came to Penn State as a point guard and slid over when Carr arrived. Probably took last season to get completely comfortable in that role. Penn State has moved the ball better as the season progressed, and Shep has taken full advantage, getting more open looks and, with space, getting to the basket more often.

Tony Carr – Sophomore. All Big 10 first team. 20 points per game. Really good three-point shooter (although NIT numbers have been low), range to a pretty good distance (like Shep – the NBA line would be fine, FIBA not a concern). Great post-up game and will ISO all night long against smaller defenders (which is a lot of the time – Tony’s 6-5). Has had some problems finishing at the rim, but will try to get there. Has made his teammates earn his trust, but as that has happened (latter half of the season), he’s distributing more and shooting less. Right now a pretty solid second-round projection for NBA, could sneak into the first. A lot of hope that he doesn’t hire an agent tomorrow and tests himself without one, but he will be gone (as he should) if he tests well in the coming months.

Bench:

Depth is a problem – there is some drop-off when going to the bench, mostly offensively.

Sixth man – Nazeer Bostick – Sophomore. 6-4 tweener, teammate of Stevens and Carr in high school. Injured and missed most of his freshman season. A good natural scorer, but still trying to find his spots at this level. Very confident, can be coaxed into taking open threes. And he might get to the point where he makes them, but his percentage this year has been low. Also long, very good leaper, seen mostly as a defense guy now but logs a lot of minutes.

Julian Moore – Grad/Sr, 6-10, pretty good off the bench (He’s actually playing slightly more minutes than Harrar) but can be overpowered by a strong big guy. Works hard, has made some really big plays down the stretch without Watkins.

Jamari Wheeler – Freshman. The best on-ball defender on the team. If he played more, he’d be third ranked in steal rate in the country.

Overall, the team under-performed its metrics. The running joke/not joke is that Penn State could be the highest KenPom team to ever be left out of the tournament. (Might have that sewn up). Ranked 23 in KenPom this morning, similar to some others: BPI 22, T-Rank 19, Sagarin 32, Current RPI 48.

Offensive efficiency is #48 nationally, defense #18, so pretty good balance. Penn State has run more sets as the season has progressed, but mostly runs that high ball screen, dribble-drive concept stuff that most teams seem to. The defense keys a lot of the offense, with blocks and steals triggering that rather than crazy on-ball defense, although that is pretty good.

Season had some ups and downs. A terrible non-conference schedule strength didn’t help, but lost two league games early to a playing-poorly Wisconsin team (by 1) and to a playing-OK-but-about-to-crater Minnesota team (in OT), and those probably made the difference. Then lost Reaves to academic problems for four games, and they went 1-3 against middling Big Ten teams during that stretch. I think the consensus (amongst Nitters, anyway!) is that the team easily had NCAA talent but did not accomplish what it needed to to get in.

Penn State has given about everyone a struggle this season. Biggest loss was 12 points at Nebraska in the game after Watkins went down. Only two other double-figure losses, to Texas A&M (in Brooklyn) and home to Minnesota (in overtime).

For a one month stretch after Josh Reaves’ return and before Watkins’ injury, Penn State trailed only Cincinnati in T-rank’s efficiency ranking. Since Watkins went down, that rank has dropped to 23.