Something to consider is that in Massey, Sagarin and S&P we were ranked much lower, even though we were 6-0 at the time, this year, we are at 12, 10, and 13 respectively. So the media previously over ranked us because of our wins, but this year, we’re right about where we should be. Definitely agree that we can still improve on a lot of things, and this team will be pretty scary if we get everything cleaned up.
Winning solves everything.
Sagarin has us at #10, S&P+ has us #12. Both systems favor us in the rest of our games.
Despite the love we’re getting in the rankings, the narrative is essentially unchanged. We’re a game up on everyone in the south in the loss column. If we lose one of our last three conference games, the only way another team passes us is if the loss is to either ASU or Colorado (both 2-3 in conf), and if that winner wins all of their remaining conference games. So, the chaos of this weekend has given us a nice cushion for the remainder of the season. Best case scenario is to win out – less desirable is losing one of our last three, but we would still be in good position to win the south – lose two and we would need a lot of help to be south champions.
So, let’s do some projections for the Pac12 championship game!!!
Utah v Wazzu: both S&P+ and Sagarin give us a W
Utah v UW: S&P+ predicts a loss, Sagarin a win
Utah v Furd: both systems say we win
Personally, I would love to see a Utah v Wazzu championship game.
Here’s something else I thought was interesting:
S&P+ ranks our offense at #42, and predicts that we end the season averaging 31.8 points per game (we are actually averaging 31.6 ppg). Last year, we ranked #55 in Off S&P+, and were predicted to average 29.5 ppg (which was spot on – that is what we averaged). Connelly warns against comparing S&P+ numbers across years, and recommends using rankings for historical comparisons. So, moving up 13 places in the offensive rankings seems like good progress to me. I want to do a more in depth post comparing this year’s offense to last year’s offense, but Connelly is updating the S&P+ numbers today, so I’ll have to wait for those numbers and put something together later this week.
Just win, baby!!!!!
S&P has us at 19
Massey at 17
Sagarin at 14
I think Massey is closest to being correct. Where would you place us?
You’re right – if Colorado runs the table they will undoubtedly be South champs – and rightfully so! Colorado’s two/three predicted losses, by system, are UW and Utah (Sagarin) or UW, Utah and USC (S&P+). If Colorado beats UW, Utah and USC they deserve to be South champs. Just like if Utah runs the table from here on out there will be quality wins (Stanford, USC and Colorado).
Thank you for the kind words about my posts! The reason I find these numbers interesting is because they are an attempt at removing bias from analysis. I especially like the S&P+ system because Connelly is so transparent in how he calculates it. He also has a fantastic SB Nation site, which really gets into the nitty gritty of statistical analysis.
The thing that has always bothered me is when people dismiss teams based on history or the ‘eye test.’ This is because I am a Utah fan and experienced one of the most epic upsets in college football history – which, btw, was predicted by an algorithm. Here’s an excerpt from an interesting read (find the rest of the article here)
The computers reclaimed center stage in 2008, when Massey’s ratings had undefeated Mountain West champ Utah ranked ahead of Alabama, which had been No. 1 in the human polls. At the time, it seemed ridiculous—even Massey agrees that it was borderline absurd. But, he says, once margin of victory went by the wayside, sometimes his poll results looked wonky. Alabama ended up facing Utah in the Sugar Bowl to end that season after losing to Florida in the SEC title game, and the Utes won handily, 31–17.
The problem with statistical analysis in football is sample size. This is why Utah’s predicted finish has been so volatile – there haven’t been enough events to really get a handle on this team’s capabilities. But that 7-2 record keeps coming up, that might be what we stabilize at. That would be enough to win the south, assuming Colorado loses to UW.
Stanford would be 9-3, not 8-4 if they go 7-2 in conference. They went 2-1 in non- conference play (wins vs. San Diego State and UC Davis, loss @ Notre Dame), which would make their record 9-3 (7-2).
But if CU runs the table….. we’ve shown we are capable of s**tting the bed against CU. Not sure why, but I enjoy your posts about these polls. I think they are total crap but it’s so fun to follow. Go Utes!
That win over Stanford really increased our value to the prognosticators. Here are the updated in conference win predictions:
Sagarin
Utah 7-2 Pac12 South Champ (tie breaker is head to head win over Colorado)
USC 6-3
Colorado 7-2
S&P+
Utah 6-3
USC 7-2 Pac12 South Champ
Colorado 6-3
This is much improved from last week’s predicted 5-4 finish by both systems. Bottom line, we win the south if we win out.
stat models/vegas love us, and we really havent put it all together yet. The ceiling of this team remains very high.
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