Stats Question for all you Stat geeks

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      • #109842

        Gary Sapp
        Ute Fan

        Before the start of the season there were a number of articles showing our probablity of winning each game on the schedule.


        I would be greatly interested in seeing how the projections against the rest of our schedule looks now.  So do any of you remember where those projections would be now?


      • #109843

        Ute Fan
      • #109844


        Type sagarin in the search box:

      • #109848

        Ute Fan

        I like the graphic charts based on S&P+ that u/ExternalTangents does on reddit

        Here is the Pac-12

        You can find the rest of the conferences here

      • #109850

        Ute Fan

        For those wondering, if we go by the ESPN FPI, Utah now has almost exactly a 25% chance of going undefeated the rest of the way. Prior to ASU, it was 13%.

        • #109852

          Ute Fan

          Wonder what it’ll jump up to if we manage to beat UW

          • #109853

            Ute Fan

            Assuming we beat Cal prior to beating UW, and also assuming the FPIs for the remaining games don’t change from where they are today (an incorrect assumption, but I doubt they’ll move too much)…


            • #109863

              Ute Fan

              Almost nice.

            • #109864

              Ute Fan

              Using CURRENT S&P+ ratings, if we beat Cal & UW, our odds are as follows.

              11 wins: 72.33%
              10 wins: 25.03%
              9 wins: 2.56%
              8 wins: 0.08%

            • #109902

              Ute Fan

              Unless of course, Utah boat races both teams. That’d be fun.

      • #109901

        Warrior Ute
        Ute Fan

        Massey ratings also offers some individual game projections.  If you click on more on the top to can get simulate season and it gives you stats on likelihood of total wins remaining, using their predictor. 

        Massey ratings for Utah

        Currently a 48.2% chance of losing one game and a 29.4% chance of winning out.

        Season simulation

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