Stats Question for all you Stat geeks

[Gary Sapp]

Before the start of the season there were a number of articles showing our probablity of winning each game on the schedule.

 

I would be greatly interested in seeing how the projections against the rest of our schedule looks now.  So do any of you remember where those projections would be now?

 

[TheJuggernaut]

http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/fpi/_/id/254/utah-utes

[Tony (admin)]

Type sagarin in the search box: https://www.utehub.com/forums/search/sagarin/

[salty-ute]

I like the graphic charts based on S&P+ that u/ExternalTangents does on reddit

Here is the Pac-12

You can find the rest of the conferences here

[GameForAnyFuss]

For those wondering, if we go by the ESPN FPI, Utah now has almost exactly a 25% chance of going undefeated the rest of the way. Prior to ASU, it was 13%.

[UM4G]

Wonder what it’ll jump up to if we manage to beat UW

[GameForAnyFuss]

Assuming we beat Cal prior to beating UW, and also assuming the FPIs for the remaining games don’t change from where they are today (an incorrect assumption, but I doubt they’ll move too much)…

68%

[KiYi-Ute]

Almost nice.

[salty-ute]

Using CURRENT S&P+ ratings, if we beat Cal & UW, our odds are as follows.

11 wins: 72.33%
10 wins: 25.03%
9 wins: 2.56%
8 wins: 0.08%

[ironman1315]

Unless of course, Utah boat races both teams. That’d be fun.

[Warrior Ute]

Massey ratings also offers some individual game projections.  If you click on more on the top to can get simulate season and it gives you stats on likelihood of total wins remaining, using their predictor. 

Massey ratings for Utah

Currently a 48.2% chance of losing one game and a 29.4% chance of winning out.

Season simulation