Stats Question for all you Stat geeks


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    • #109842

      Gary Sapp
      Ute Fan
      @uofuman

      Before the start of the season there were a number of articles showing our probablity of winning each game on the schedule.

       

      I would be greatly interested in seeing how the projections against the rest of our schedule looks now.  So do any of you remember where those projections would be now?

       

    • #109843

      TheJuggernaut
      Ute Fan
      @thejuggernaut
    • #109844

      Tony
      Admin/Founder
      @admin

      Type sagarin in the search box: https://www.utehub.com/forums/search/sagarin/

    • #109848
      4

      Nick
      Ute Fan
      @salty-ute

      I like the graphic charts based on S&P+ that u/ExternalTangents does on reddit

      Here is the Pac-12

      You can find the rest of the conferences here

    • #109850

      GameForAnyFuss
      Ute Fan
      @gameforanyfuss

      For those wondering, if we go by the ESPN FPI, Utah now has almost exactly a 25% chance of going undefeated the rest of the way. Prior to ASU, it was 13%.

      • #109852

        UM4G
        Ute Fan
        @um4g

        Wonder what it’ll jump up to if we manage to beat UW

        • #109853

          GameForAnyFuss
          Ute Fan
          @gameforanyfuss

          Assuming we beat Cal prior to beating UW, and also assuming the FPIs for the remaining games don’t change from where they are today (an incorrect assumption, but I doubt they’ll move too much)…

          68%

          • #109863
            1

            KiYi-Ute
            Ute Fan
            @kiyi-ute

            Almost nice.

          • #109864
            1

            Nick
            Ute Fan
            @salty-ute

            Using CURRENT S&P+ ratings, if we beat Cal & UW, our odds are as follows.

            11 wins: 72.33%
            10 wins: 25.03%
            9 wins: 2.56%
            8 wins: 0.08%

          • #109902

            ironman1315
            Ute Fan
            @ironman1315

            Unless of course, Utah boat races both teams. That’d be fun.

    • #109901

      Warrior Ute
      Ute Fan
      @warriorute

      Massey ratings also offers some individual game projections.  If you click on more on the top to can get simulate season and it gives you stats on likelihood of total wins remaining, using their predictor. 

      Massey ratings for Utah

      Currently a 48.2% chance of losing one game and a 29.4% chance of winning out.

      Season simulation

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