Utes Thought Experiment

[TexanUte]

Since it will now be at least year 8 in the Pac 12 (2018 season) until the Utes might possibly win the South division it made me start wondering the following:

At what point will we as a Ute fan base finally admit that the program under Whitt has failed as it relates to being a Pac 12 member? Year 10 without a division title? 15 years? 20? Why has TCU with less NFL caliber talent year in and year out excelled so much more than Utah under Patterson since joining the Big 12? These are all thoughts that keep going through my mind. I think the thing that is hardest for me to deal with is stinking Colorado winning the division before the Utes. All 5 of our Pac 12 south bunkmates have won except us. Unacceptable

[utahsportsguy]

i endorse this message.

[Utahute72]

I reject this message as being argumentative, obtuse and inaccurate.

[RiseasUtes]

TCU is in one of the biggest markets and biggest football states in the nation.  They have access to so many 4* recruits.  Couple that with Patterson (who I consider a top 5 CFB coach in the nation) and you have a recipe for success.  

KW isn’t a top 5 coach nation wide, but I would put him in that 2nd tier or 3rd tier and as a top 15 or so guy.  We knew this was going to be a bit of a rebuild year with having to replace 4 Olinemen and starting a true sophomore QB.  Add in all the injuries and starting freshman/sophomores and it shouldn’t be surprising that we aren’t just beating everyone.

I can understand frustration, especially after Saturday, but this team is very young and has a lot of talent.  And I know winning the South is goal one, but we have tied once and been close several years.  I would like to see KW start improving on our conference record, but we are usually behind in recruiting compared to USC, UCLA, Az St, Oregon, Washington, Stanford, Cal, Colorado and usually on par with Arizona, Wash St and Oregon St.  So for us to compete with and Beat some of those schools regularly is pretty impressive.

[Utahute72]

Additional thought experiment.

Did you really expect Utah to win the South this year given the amount of talent we lost, new coordinator, new QB and a stronger (at least on paper) USC?

Because if you did, you might want to seek professional help.

[UtMtBiker]

Two of your points (new OC, and new starting QB) serve to strengthen OP’s point regarding questioning if Whitt is the right coach to take us to the next level. Both of those are decisions that the HC makes. Both haven’t turned out very well yet.

[ladyinred]

Btw I didn’t thumbs down you lol.

I think the jury is still out on Taylor. He did actually adjust with some nice plays for TW in the USC game that played to his strengths. I don’t really blame Taylor for Saturday. He was in a lose-lose situation. Don’t play TH then everyone is crying about missing our star QB, do play him but he lays an egg (like he did), why did you play him hurt?

I would like to see Taylor given more time regardless of how this season pans out.

Someone made the comment recently that both coordinaters are on the field and not up in the booth. Maybe switching it up there would provide a better view, especially on offense.

[Xanthis]

I would really like to see Taylor up in the booth and Keil on the field. Taylor is used to being on the field, but he hasn’t ever coached where the game moves as fast as it does in the P5. I can only imagine how hard it is to see the individual battles and weaknesses of a defense on the sideline. You can barely see the other side of the field when a play starts sitting low in the stands.  

[Xanthis]

Sounds like Whitt would like to see Taylor up in the booth too.

Whitt: In my own mind, DC should be on the field and the OC should be in the box. We’ll have a discussion this week. Josh Furlong (@JFurKSL) October 23, 2017

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[Utahute72]

Well those two are tied together. If Roderick is still the OC, I’m betting that Williams is the QB. Sometimes you have to take a step back to take a step forward. My point was that the early lofty expectations on the part of Ute fans were unwarranted. We should have expected some rough sledding this year.

[ladyinred]

Colorado is perhaps on the verge of another sub .500 season. Maybe others will disagree, but as a fan, I’d rather see eight 9-3/8-4 type seasons than seven garbage seasons and one pac 12 south crown, followed by being blown out in the championship game and subsequent bowl.

[UteThunder]

A couple of more thoughts to add to Rise and 72’s . . .

Colorado was already a P5 team when they entered the league. They weren’t great, but they also weren’t a MWC team joining the Pac-12. They already had talent and the credibility with recruits we have been trying to establish. They just needed to get a coach capable of utilizing their talent.

In addition to TCU being in a recruiting hotbed and having a fantastic coach, the Big XII isn’t as good as the Pac-12. Texas has been down pretty much since they joined the league. Oklahoma is still strong, but not as good as they were prior to TCU joining. I would also argue that TCU’s program was stronger than Utah’s back in 2010-11 so they were much closer to where they needed to be to compete from day 1 of joining.

Of course everyone else in the South has won the division and Utah hasn’t. Utah is the only team in the division who was a G5 team less than 10 years ago.

We’ve had our chances to win the South, but just haven’t gotten over the hump YET. Whittingham can get us there, it just won’t be this year.

[Utah5410]

Everyone needs to calm down on the Whitt Stuff.

Accept who we are and who Whitt is. Whitt is NOT an offensive guy. He admits it. In the PAC you must have at least a decent offense. A-ROD didn’t work. Whit or not he didn’s work. He believes in Taylor and frankly so do I. Taylor had the balls to go with Huntley. So all agree that Huntley is a stud, the problem is he has no game experience against REAL competition. He’s going to get beat up this year.

[UtMtBiker]

Troy Taylor also does’t have any experience against “real competition” so him having the balls to go with Huntley really doesn’t mean anything or inspire any confidence.

[crazyute]

One thing that goes unsaid in the ute program right now is Morgan Scalley. Our run run defense had been putrid in our Pac 12 games this year.
We seem very vanilla. There is no pre snap movement anymore. There is very little twist and stunts going on. And we are very basic in or blitz scheme. We don’t disguise it what so ever. We don’t see zone pressures anymore. No dogs or smoke blitzes. It is all 50’s or 0’s pressures, man pressures.

I saw Whitt yell at Taylor Saturday but nothing towards Scalley. Even after giving up 180 yards on the ground in the first half.

[Utah]

Utah’s defense was on the field for 20+ mins in the first half. 

Defens is not the problem. 

[UtMtBiker]

The only defensive stats that matter are scoring defense and turn overs. We’ve been pretty good at both this year. Giving up 30 when your offense can’t get a first down is somewhat respectable.

[ironman1315]

In actuality, the D gave up 23. The last 7 were entirely on the O.

[Utahute72]

I had the D giving up about 13, the others were based on the O putting them in bad positions because of turnovers and even then they were able to minimize the damage early on.  Throw in another drive aided by some really strange calls and you have the 30 points.

[Utahute72]

Most people rave about the defense under Pease. Well that’s the version Scalley is running. Either you follow the Sitaki model and blitz frequently, or you follow the Pease model and play base defense and blitz as needed. That second one is what we’ve played all year. For the most part it’s worked. Last week the defense was put in bad situations time after time and I though held up really well until the time discrepency started to wear them down.

[TexanUte]

Except TCU has not had many 3* and above recruits. Utah has put more players in the NFL than TCU over past 7 years. We have the talent. Something else is missing. Also to argue that Patterson is a top 5 coach actually makes my point. I may be argumentative and obtuse but I am correct – we haven’t won the division since joining and each year its a different excuse.

[shakeitsugaree]

Since leaving the MWC,

TCU:
2012 7-6 lost to Michigan St in the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl 17-16
2013 4-8
2014 12-1 beat Ole Miss in the Peach bowl
2015 11-2 beat Oregon in the Alamo Bowl
2016 6-7 lost to Georgia in the Liberty Bowl
Utah:
2011 8-5 beat Georgia Tech in the Sun Bowl
2012 5-7
2013 5-7
2014 9-4 beat Colorado St in the Las Vegas Bowl
2015 10-3 beat TDS in Vegas Bowl
2016 9-4 beat Indiana in Foster Farms Bowl

Seems pretty similar to me. At the very least, I don’t think it’s accurate to say that TCU “has excelled so much more” than Utah

We’ve been ranked in every CFP ranking, won all our Bowl games, and had consistent winning seasons since 2014. TCU can’t say that. TCU had a share of the Big12 title in 2014, had a great season in 2015, and took a step back in 2016. Kinda like Utah’s current trajectory. College football is cyclical – very few teams are good year in and year out.
But, all of this is wasted on you. You don’t really seem interested in having a discussion about the flaws of our team – you just want to bang the ‘Whitt Sucks’ drum and burn him in effigy. So, as you were

[FtheY]

TCU has had good talent at QB. It’s still the linchpin and missing piece for us. 

I still think of all our needs as a program, this is still priority #1. 

[Hellhound152]

The “experts” (Wilner and others) stated that it would be 10 years before Utah was competetive in the PAC12.  They also prognosticated that it would be 20 years, if ever, before the Utes were in a Rose Bowl.

What we have actually witnessed is a Utah team that was competitive by year 4 (Sorry, if you still have a shot a winning the division with 2 weeks remaining that is competetive) being ranked in the top 25 at the end of each season.

TCU was far better situated to move into the Big 12 than Utah was to move into the PAC 12.  TCU had always had P5 athletes in the defensive backfield and especially in the offensive skill positions.  The Big 12 had evolved to a skill league by the time TCU moved into that league and it masked some of the weaknesses along the lines and potential depth issues.  The PAC12 was a more well rounded league with a much better competitive balance and by year two far better coaching top to bottom.  Utah is still building skill positions on the offensive side of the ball.

Don’t get me wrong, I want the Utes to win every game and make the playoffs every season too but the reality is that this is the first season where I have not seen one or more position group that wasn’t clearly outmatched athletically by top competition.  The impatience with the process is disconcerting when we have so much evidence that knee jerk coaching changes in an effort to get over the metaphorical hump rarely work even at traditional powers much less a Johnny come lately like Utah.

[UtMtBiker]

I was reading through this thread and realized that nobody actually answered OP’s question. Just started a lot of side conversations, so I’ll answer it. I only seem to get down voted anyway.

I’d say at this point Whitt as earned himself 2 terrible years. If we end up this year at 5-7 and then miss a bowl game next year with a 4-8 or worse record it would be time. I don’t think Utah can afford to have 3 bad years without losing all of the recruiting progress that Whitt has built. A new coach with a trendy name might be able to salvage that.

I think the more likely scenario is that we finish up with 6 wins (UCLA, Colo) and bounce back next year with 8 or 9 and the question is moot.