Oregon State

[Italy88]

I know Oregon St. seems to be much improved, but when looking at who they have beat this year, I’m not super impressed. Was surprised to see that ESPN’s only gives Utah a 53% edge in this one.

What do you all think the opening line is on this one? I’ll guess Utah -5.

[ProudUte]

Yeah, I think 4 or 5 points.

Keep in mind that OSU lost a close one on the road to Purdue.  We saw what Purdue can do yesterday.

[Italy88]

That’s true. I hadn’t registered that. After the start the Utes had, I’m thrilled for them to be in the spot they are.

[MDUte]

I expect Oregon St to be a battle. Jonathon Smith is doing an amazing job in Corvallis. It looks like he’s using the Whittingham blueprint for how to build and Coach a team and they have continued to take steps forward each year. They’re a dangerous team that can take out anyone in the conference on any night.

Outside of Arizona and Colorado, I think we have to bring our A game or we will get beat. There’s just an awful lot of parity in the conference IMO and the unexpected seems to happen every single week.

[ProudUte]

I basically agree.  We “should” beat Stanford, but we must play better than we did in the first half last night.

 

 

[concerned]

Huge trap game potential. Emotional letdown after last night, on the road, osu coming off a bye.

[UteFanatic]

They’re not world beaters, but they’re a solid team this year. Road games are always tough.

My guess is the line opens at -1 for OSU and then moves to -4 to -5 Utah throughout the week.

[Italy88]

That would be a huge shift, and would really surprise me. Don’t know that I’ve ever seen a line move quite that much.

[UteFanatic]

Got pretty close with ASU. Line opened at ASU -1 and ended up Utah -2.5.

[Italy88]

Nope. It was Utes -1 at kickoff. I’m not talking obscure sports books here. I’m talking the line you see on the CBS Sports or ESPN app. It never moved past Utah -1.

[UteFanatic]

I was just stating what I saw from some of the larger, well-known Sportsbooks I look at weekly. I thought the line for BYU-Baylor moved pretty considerably as well? 

[alUmnUs]

Underestimating Oregon State at home in Corvallis is an enormous mistake when they’re mediocre. And this OSU team is good.

Their ground game is a machine and their QB is probably the most solid QB Utes D have gone up against this season (except for Cam Rising in practice).

[2008 National Champ]

Nolan isn’t anywhere near Hall, Daniels or Slovis.

The defensive game plan needs to be exactly the same the next 2 weeks as against ASU. Stop the run, keep the QB in the pocket, and play well on the back end. Sloppy tackling and missing assignment like we saw in the first half will keep Oregon State in the game. Force Nolan to beat them with his arm like we saw in the 2nd half will get the job done.

Oregon State doesn’t give up and Smith has that team believing in themselves. They are about the same as 2017 Utah where they manage to keep games close enough to have a chance at the end but can’t quite get over the hump consistently. It wouldn’t surprise me for Utah to be up two scores most of the 2nd half but OSU with the ball late with a chance to tie the game like we saw last year.

[alUmnUs]

Nolan has played better this season than all 3 of those QBs. He can and will be mobile if he needs to, but OSU’s run game has been efficient enough that he hasn’t had to. I posted last week that OSU in Corvallis would be a tougher out than ASU and I stand by that. Utah’s trajectory still feels a bit shaky, but if our Utes round this corner in Corvallis…look out!!

[2008 National Champ]

7-15 for 48 yards and a pick against a substandard Husky defense disagrees.

For the season they are closer than I thought so we can either both be right or both wrong while I admit to watching one game clouding my judgement.

Nolan – 63.4%, 8.6 y/a, 9-5 TD-Int
Daniels – 69.0%, 9.0, 6-3
Hall – 62.1%, 7.9, 9-3
Slovis – 64%, 7.2, 9-5

[alUmnUs]

And the Beavs won – in Corvallis.

In the one game this season where their run game was limited, Nolan was efficient after replacing Noyer. Beavs couldn’t find the end zone on the road at Purdue.

If I’m comparing him to what I’ve seen from the other 3 this season:

Hall isn’t going to go into the Coliseum in November and go 15-19 throwing 4 TDs like Nolan did while OSU racked up 300+ on the ground.

Slovis will still be picking up chunk yards (if he’s not injured) thanks to London while every 3rd pass is a wiffle ball and he curls up in the fetal position when he can’t get rid of the ball.

Jayden Daniels – meh. Glad he picked up the other hat. ASU has to go to Corvallis 2nd to last week in November. You’ve probably watched plenty of PAC12 football. Who are you putting money on in that game?

[2008 National Champ]

I think ASU has a very good chance to win out so my money would be on them. Just because Utah won last night doesn’t mean that ASU is bad. Especially if they can get some of their injured D starters back.

Oregon State is getting a lot of credit for that UW win but that isn’t the same teams they were the last couple of years. When your only wins are against 1-5 Arkansas State and 1-5 Cal, you can’t really trade on past reputation anymore.

Don’t get me wrong, OSU is easily a 6-7 win team this year. But with their schedule backloaded, they are going to have to fight to get there. After Utah they should win against Cal and Colorado but then finish up with Stanford, ASU and Oregon. 7-5 shouldn’t be a surprise, even if they are disappointed with a 2-4 finish.