Red goggles off, what is your season record prediction for 2023?

[SalUteopia]

This is my breakdown in 3 tiers:
Losses: @ USC, @ UW (0-2)
Split: Florida, @ Baylor, Oregon, @ Oregon St (2-2)
At least 1 loss: UCLA, @ Arizona, Arizona St, Colorado, @ California, Weber St (5-1)
This brings it to 7-5, which seems harsh, but not unrealistic given the brutal schedule. If we stay healthy, and show up at away games, 10-2 is possible. Realistically, I’m leaning 8-4. So we might have a better team than 2021 and 2022, but still end up with an 8-4 record (3 conf losses). Which might be sufficient to play in the P12 CCG if we have the right wins/losses. Given the stacked conference and brutal schedule, it would be a significant achievement to just make it to Vegas!
What’s your prediction for the next season?

[Ute95]

8-4

[chinngiskhaan]

If Rising plays all year we’ll have 9 wins. If not, 6 or 7 wins tops.

[SalUteopia]

I’d be shocked if we fall below 7 even w/o Cam.

[alexsmith]

Personally, I think Florida and Baylor should both be wins, so I’d put that one at 3-1 and I think we can split the UW and USC, so ultimately I think another 10 win season after the Pac 12 title and/or bowl game shouldn’t be out of reach

[SalUteopia]

That’d put us at 9-3, which seems reasonable.

[UtesRule]

Depends on the health of Cam Rising.

Assuming he’s 100% healthy by game 1:
– 3-0 in the non-con
– Need to win all 5 conference home games
– Need to win 2 of 3 of the top road games (@U$C, @Washington and @OSU)
– Win all other conference road games
– 3-Peat s as Pac-12 champions

This gets them in the playoff.

If Cam and Kuithe are healthy and we have good health for the key players, there’s a decent chance that could happen. Not likely, but possible.

More likely is:
– Cam is not fully healthy for have 1 and the Utes go 2-1 (likely loss @Baylor)
– Utes lose 2 of 3 of the difficult road games
– Utes lose an unexpected road game
– Utes win all 5 conference home games
– Miss the PAC-12 championship game

Finish 8-4

[SalUteopia]

Agree that 8-4 seems likely. Will need a couple lucky breaks in terms of scheduling / injuries to 3peat.

[Utah]

Man, that is harsh. We basically bring back the same team that has won the PAC-12 two years in a row and you put them at 7 wins? Yikes. If that’s the case, it’s time for Whitt to retire and Scalley to move on because this team would have gotten complacent. Or tons of injuries.

My predicted growth for Utah:

QB: Better or worse. If Rising is healthy to start the year, we should be better. He should be better. He returns everybody.

RB: Jackson is a beast and even though Thomas is battling Joe Williams for most talented Utah RB, I think Jackson will be in that mix. He will get a full offseasn to change his body, get his shoulders stronger, legs bigger and get a little quicker. Remember, as good as he was this year, he was a QB playing RB. Next fall he will be a RB.

WR: They have to get better, right? Parks was so young and so was Cope. We should be better at WR.

TE: This is a tough one. Kincaid was so good. And Yassman was good. BUT Kuithe was hurt. We do get Kuithe back and you have to assume Yassman continues to improve. I’d say a wash, unless you think Kuithe is comparable to Kincaid overall, then TE’s would be better.

OL: Should be better. We return 4 starters and we finally have talent upperclassmen.

DL: Better. We return everybody.

LB: Seeing how we started two freshmen in 2022, LB’s should be a lot better.

CB: Worse. Hopefully only slightly. We saw how huge CPIII was for us. We will take a step back here.

S: Better. Again, so much youth with Ritchie returning. We will be better here.

Game 1: Florida @ Utah. We barely lost last year. We bring back the same team and we are at home. And Florida has a new QB. Utah should win this and by a TD or more. We should just be better next year.

We will be better at every position next fall except CB and QB (if Rising is still hurt).

What are the best predictors of a team’s success? #1 is returning OL. #2 is schedule. #3 is coach. #4 is QB. We hit homeruns on 3 of the 4. Let’s look at the schedule.

Taking this in account:

Florida: This is in SLC, we are a better team than last year, Florida will have a new QB. We win.
@Baylor: Forgive me if a 6-7 team that lost to BYU doesn’t scare me. We should win this game. Defense travels and our defense will be great and we have JJ at RB and an experienced OL. It might be tight, it might be ugly, but we should win this game.
Weber St: Win

So, our OOC should be 3-0. The key to the rest is how the schedule breaks out. We have AZ, Oregon St, USC, and UW on the road. We are better than all those teams except maybe USC. If we have @USC then @OSU, then I can see us losing both those games. I can’t really say we’d go 2-2 or 3-1 or 1-3. We just have to see the schedule.

Our home games are ASU, Cal, Colorado, Oregon, UCLA. We should beat ASU, Cal, Colorado and UCLA. That’s 4 wins. We are just better than they are. Even with a new QB. We haven’t lost to Oregon at home since 2016. I’d put that as a likely win.

So, we are at 7-0, with a likely win over Oregon. We should beat AZ and OSU on the road. We should lose to USC on the road. That’s 7-1. UW is a 50/50 game.

So, I’d bet we end up with 2 or 3 losses.

My final guess: 1% chance we end up undefeated. 10% chance we end up with 1 loss. 35% chance we end up with 2 losses. 40% chance we end up with 3 losses. 10% chance we end up with 4 losses. 4% chance we end up with 5+ losses.

[SalUteopia]

Thank you for the detailed post. Love the in-depth analysis!

I did arrive at 7-5 the way it was broken down, but I mention that realistically I’m leaning 8-4, which is close to your 9-3 prediction. I want to be even higher on the 2023 team, but the schedule, conf strength, and our away game record give me a pause. 

Frankly, I’m not sure what to make of our away losses. UF was mediocre, but we tend to start slow and opening in the swamp was never going to be easy, so there’s that. And how’re we viewing the UCLA and UO losses? Were those teams truly better than us, or are we just not a very good away team? Regardless, if a similar yardstick is applied to 2023, a combined record of 1-3 @ UW, USC, UO, OSU is not a stretch. 

Having said that, there are 2 factors that make me hopeful: the RB room and STs. RB, which is usually one of our biggest strengths, was average at best in 2022. With TT gone and JJ showing tremendous promise, I think we will be back to our usual self there. And STs, which have been in shambles the past 2 years, should only trend up (Right? Right?? One could argue we win the UF and UO games with an average kicker). This could take some pressure off Cam, and could ultimately be the difference between 8-4 and 10-2. 

[Utah]

Look at our three losses: @Florida, @UCLA, @Oregon. All close games (maybe not too close with UCLA), all on the road. Look at Alabama when they played Texas on the road: They almost lost. It’s hard to go on the road and win. It’s really hard.

I think that is why seeing the schedule is so important here. Utah has been a very, very young team the last two years. They will now be a very veteran team this fall. Our defense won’t be young anymore. It will be seasoned and experienced. And we added Damuni to it? Yikes. That’s awesome.

I agree about Jackson. Also, I’m low key glad Bernard is gone. I never figured him out. He runs too high. He gets taken down to easily. He is good, but I’m not sure he is good enough to get the high number of snaps he got. Is he Whitt’s cousin or something? Did Whitt feel bad for him because of TT? I dunno. But having him gone means the room is now Jackson’s and that is a good thing. More talented players will take the snaps that Bernard was getting.

[Ute Dub]

I think we beat USC, they can’t tackle, so we can hang with them. 

[Utah]

Hell yeah brother!!!

[UteFanatic]

8-4

My prediction for 2022 was 9-3, so I’m pretty good at this. 😉

[dystopiamembrane]

I doubt we’ll be too worried about college football when the savior comes back in June.

[dystopiamembrane]

[dystopiamembrane]

Dude’s wearing red.

[Utesbyfive]

I’m going to go with this: All the pieces finally fall together for this team to be dominant. 10-2.

[SalUteopia]

10-2 would be spectacular! We pulled 9-3 with key injuries, young D, unstable RB situation, and practically no STs. We can’t control the injury part, but the RB and STs should be much improved. D also started to look much better as the season progressed. 10-2 is definitely not outside the realm of possibilities.

[AlohaUte]

First, are we confident in knowing which Pac-12 teams we are playing this season? With the eradication of divisions, can’t the conference restructure the scheduling so we aren’t playing all the P12 South teams next season?

Regardless, with the current project scheduled teams, I say we go 10-2. Our defense will be better and if Rising is healthy and able to play and with Kuithe, our offense is in good shape. I think we beat UCLA, AZ, CU, AZ State, Cal, Baylor, Weber State, and Florida. I think we definitely lose one of UW, USC, OSU – and likely a 2nd one of those.

I think we’ll again play in the Pac-12 CG.

[HoosierUte]

I think for now everybody is assuming that the conference will be lazy and keep the same rotation for one more year. I would love to see them mix it up and stick it to the traitors. USC and UCLA should be a road show this season. 

[SalUteopia]

Man, that’d be great if they make USC / UCLA pay, but I don’t see it happening. And are there rumors of scheduling / rotation changes? I’d be happy to miss even one of the projected teams from UW, USC, UO, OSU. CFB is not a level-playing field, so I will take any advantage that comes our way.

[chinngiskhaan]

No reason to think Johnson can throw a football. He might be able to, but there is no proof that he can, not in a college football game.

Without Kincaid, kuithe is going to be double teamed every game until another threat proves themselves. Given Cam’s HEAVY reliance on kuithe prior to his injury, I don’t think that will happen.

Our receivers aren’t going to magically improve to the point that they actually matter.

6 or 7 is possible with an injury or two to the wrong guys.

[Trailgoat]

8-4 (not including the bowl game loss :)), Three in conference losses on the road and loss to Baylor on the road. Still a lot of questions in a few position groups. I get a very few teams go a full year playing their best every week.

Utah needs to improve in a few areas if they take the next step to winning another P12 Championship.

Edge rush: who steps up to be the next Orchard, Kruger, Tafua, Anae, Dimmick, etc? Crazy Anae and Dimmick played together. Hopefully Ellis, Fillinger, Kennedy, and Fano step up. O’toole adding 20 pounds will help. Utah has been missing that feared edge rusher for a couple years.
LB: Barton’s been amazing as a true Freshman. Hopefully Damuni and up and coming players push for the other LB position and put pressure on Reid for his LB position.
Safety: should be solid here as long as the coverage issues and communication improves. Vaki was a nice surprise and will get the coverage stuff cleaned up. Ritchie, Isbell, should fill in with Bishop.
Team leadership on defense: Lloyd’s leadership was missed. Not sure if CPIII or Hubert stepped up.
TE: Kuithe back is huge of course. Yasmin is a nice story, but needs to improve his TE football IQ starting with the Juggs machine. Last play time I remember from Munir was the dropped pass followed by a penalty in the first USC game. Could not tell if he played another down since. Kind of head scratcher Utah did not find a good, athletic TE in the early portal market. Too late now moving to the Phase II portal leftovers after Spring Ball. Maybe the Idaho Freshman steps up.
WR: Same old story. Would be nice for Rising to have a consistent WR able get open in 1v1 coverage. Utah WRs get no respect against the athletic teams. Next years going to be fun to follow with all the QB talent. Go Utes!

[AlaskaSteveUteAlum]

I’m holding out for a 12-0 record with no major injuries, and a CFP championship game against defending champion Georgia.

[prestitute]

10-2 is my call if we avoid major injuries. 

Losses are most probably USC/UW as you noted or maybe OSU, but I think we get 1 of USC/UW and end up dropping either UF/Baylor or just a headscratcher elsewhere.

[EagleMountainUte]

9-3. Losses at Washington. Losses at Zona and a loss at Baylor.

Whitt owns Lincoln.

[The Miami Ute]

John Canzano has gone on record saying that if Cam Rising returned to Utah, he’d place the Utes as the odds-on favorite to threepeat as PAC 12 champs. That’s good enough for me. Looking into my crystal ball, I see a 10-2 record with unfortunate losses to USC in LA and the vastly improved Beavs in Corvallis. The Beavs might be a sleeper for the conference championship. They return almost everybody and added DJ from the portal.

[MotherJabubu]

There is a glut of experienced QB talent in the pac next year. It’s going to be tough to get through unscathed.

[Hellhound152]

Utah has finished with less than 9 wins exactly once since 2014.  Moving on…