Canzano with some insights from Vegas

[Ma’ake Kava]

Media + Expansion + Kliavkoff

Media deal: multiple sources claiming it will equal / surpass B12 numbers. Multiple sources indicate it’s taking longer because Apple and/or Amazon are relatively new to college sports & are proceeding methodically.

Kliavkoff: JC got pushback after suggesting GK needs to show something soon. “Says who? That’s a media narrative. He’s on solid footing with his bosses” Kliavkoff certainly doesn’t appear stressed at the WBB tourney.

Expansion: confirmed they’re looking at SDSU, SMU and – interestingly – Colorado State, doesn’t have confirmation on the fourth school. JC thinks they’ll take 2 schools or none, probably related to whatever the media deal ends up being.

B12 poaching PAC schools: Specific denials from both CU and Oregon.

I think OnlyU is right, below. There’s a TON of chatter… but it’s the offseason, and without a doubt the B12 commissioner is trying to destabilize the PAC, just like last summer. He’s aggressive, he’s a gambler, that’s what he does.

Canzano is a PAC guy (obviously) but he doesn’t BS if he knows something is different. Between the insights JC provides and Kliavkoff’s body language in Vegas, I think we’re much closer to the fictional BS of last summer than we are to things falling apart.

I’m with everyone else, though, it will be good to get this media rights thing in the rearview mirror.

[dystopiamembrane]

Thank you for this article. Level-headed, straight to the point. 

[Charlie]

I think the only issue that will create problems is the commitment of Oregon and Washington. I expect that they realize that their opportunity to move to the B1G has passed for this round. The best strategy to get to the next round of alignment is clearly a healthy Pac. This is absolutely true for their sister schools that are tied to them much closer than Cali schools. Next, late night games in the Mtn and Pacific time zones are a pain for fans but has great media value. The B1G has only 2, the Big 12 only 1, but the Pac is completely in with most in the Pacific. In the end, this has very significant real value. Streaming platforms and a conference network are complex issues that are completely beyond the strategies taken by the Big 12 so construction of the media solution will take a different timeline for the Pac. Many think this needs to be done fast but actually it needs to be done simply well since this is the last P5 to be done for some time.

[Central Coast Ute]

According to the article, UO is all in. They know the BIG has passed them up for now.

[Ma’ake Kava]

Great insights, Charlie.

The other aspect that will clarify things is the experience of the LA schools starting next year with a ton more eastbound travel than anyone familiar with circadian rhythm and jet lag thinks is rational, for competing at very high levels of exertion. The research is crystal clear. (Westbound travel of 2+ timezones is easier, but still not trival.)

Along with the expanded CFP changing the picture, the topic of jumping into an eastern-heavy super conference may look very different in 5 years than it does today. Unless the B1G goes *really* big and creates a western wing (with lower media numbers) to help balance the competition, UO and UW may decide it’s better being a big fish in a smaller pond & maximize their national footprint for recruiting.

A lot of factors to balance & consider. I think we’ll be OK.

[Trailgoat]

Great insight here all around. Seems the media and fans reacting are the main groups all worked up about the P12 not locking down a media deal yet. Patience is key IMO. There is no rush. Big 12 Commish has his social media hit men blasting the P12 trying to scare the four corner schools into a knee jerk decision. I have no problem with the P12 taking their time sorting this all out. Very curious to see how the travel gap plays out for the USC and UCLA student athletes despite USC and UCLA leaders of course spinning it’s really no big deal for the kids. Sure there is a big pay out for USC and UCLA, but there is a lot of unforeseen risk they don’t want to talk about. Utah and the other P12 schools are all in good shape when it all plays out. Go Utes!

[Utah]

Take a step back and look logically at the B12. 

Why would Oregon or UW or Utah or ASU want to go to the B12? The conference sucks. If any P12 team went to the B12, they would instantly be the best program in the conference. 

It makes no sense. 

What the P12 will do is sign a deal that ends up more than the B12 with a short GOR so that way in 2028, all teams will be free to try to get into the B1G. 

But in reality, USC and UCLA will come back and TX and Oklahoma will either join the P12 or the new ACC league and the B12 will be left out of the new P4 because…well because the teams in the B12 suck and have no value.