Dalton Kincaid as a 1st Rd Draft Pick

[The Miami Ute]

I just read Mel Kiper’s NFL 2023 Draft 1.0 and guess what? He’s got Dalton Kincaid going to the Bengals with the 28th pick of the 1st round. Here’s the write-up since it’s behind a paywall:

28. Cincinnati Bengals
Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah

Hayden Hurst had a decent bounce-back season after signing in Cincinnati, but he’s hitting the free agent market again this offseason. The Bengals need to find a long-term tight end target for quarterback Joe Burrow. Even with Hurst, the offense ranked 29th in receiving yards by tight ends (556). Adding a big red-zone target is a way for it to level up.

Both Kincaid and Luke Musgrave (Oregon State) have a chance to be Round 1 picks, and I wouldn’t be surprised if a few teams preferred one of them over Michael Mayer (Notre Dame) as the top-ranked tight end in this class. Kincaid had 16 touchdowns over the past two seasons, while Musgrave was in line for a breakout before he suffered a knee injury in October that prematurely ended his season. Kincaid has more speed, but Musgrave’s size (6-6, 250 pounds) and upside intrigues NFL scouts. Cincinnati would upgrade with either player here.

[EagleMountainUte]

That would be an incredible outcome. Joes Burrows is an incredible QB. I imagine Bengals are gonna be contenders next year. I have them winning the SB. 

[ProudUte]

Good for Dalton.  Just look at the film of the USC game.  16 targets and 16 catches.  Who does that?  There were some amazing catches including one on the east sideline that the refs initially ruled an incomplete.  He’s a stud.  I hope he has a long, productive NFL career.  The Bengals would be a great team.

 

[The Miami Ute]

I’m kind of thinking that Kuithe is looking at that and feeling that he could be close to a somewhat similar scenario next year.  To me, it’s been wonderful to have seen Kincaid’s meteoric rise from the ground floor.

[Larry B]

What are the chances that Kuithe is the same player he was before tearing his ACL? I’ve never had an ACL injury, but I’ve heard that most people don’t come back even close to 100% afterwards. If I remember correctly, Covey took over a year to get back to 100%.

[Johnny]

Frank Gore tore up his knee multiple times and still rushed for over 16k yards in the NFL. ACL and MCL. He may be in a wheelchair at 50 yrs old, but some people recover differently than others. 

[The Miami Ute]

Good catch Johnny. I’ve actually had ACL reconstruction (albeit well over 30 years ago) and it took me a full year before I could take part in a full slate of physical activities. We’ve come a long way since then and while an ACL tear is still a serious injury, it’s not a death sentence and really hasn’t been for decades. Another Miami guy that had an ACL injury in college and then went on to a long and fruitful pro career was Willis McGahee. I don’t think that Kuithe will have any problem coming back from his injury but you can’t ever guarantee that he won’t get hurt again.

[UtMtBiker]

Basically zero chance next year.

[Tony (admin)]

He’ll still have great hands. 

[Utah]

Kuithe has a size problem. Kincaid is 6’4 and 240. Kuithe is 6’2 and 219. 

That is why Kuithe isn’t seen as a NFL TE and why he came back last year and why there was so much talk of him playing some WR. He needs to show the NFL he can do a position other than TE. 

Kuithe is just too small. 

[stbone]

Shannon Sharpe (6’2″, 225) disagrees.

Kuithe doesn’t have prototypical size, but he seems to be a surprisingly good blocker for his size, and has the athleticism to create mismatches to get open. Who knows if his game will translate, but there are other tight ends with similar size that have been very successful.

[Utah]

I mean, yeah, you are comparing him to a once in a lifetime type player. 

I love Kuithe but I don’t think there will be too many GM’s willing to take a swing like that. Maybe a late 6 or 7 round pick IF he is unreal next year. If not, he will most likely have to go the UDFA route and earn his way. 

[stbone]

I agree that he is not prototypical, and he has a harder path. I think he had the athleticism to pull off being an undersized TE, we will see if he still has it.

[Utah]

I hope you’re right. But I know we will love watching home this fall! 

[The Miami Ute]

My dad always used to tell me that it’s better to do something a year too early than a year too late. From the look of things, a solid case could be made that Kuithe should have declared for the 2022 NFL draft and taken his chances then. Now, he’s coming off a major injury and will be almost 25 when the 2024 NFL season rolls around. Do I think he can play in the NFL? Yes, but it surely won’t be as a TE. Every scouting report I’ve read gives him bad blocking grades and, when you combine that with his unimpressive size, well, TE just isn’t in the cards. He’s going to have to reinvent himself somehow as a big possession receiver, I think, in order to have s chance in the NFL.