Utah’s 2019 Recruiting

[Dwight89]

So looking at Utah’s remaining 2019 targets…it doesn’t look like there’s a whole lot there to boost our recruiting ranking. That’s pretty disappointing. Someone talk me off the ledge here. I get we have fewer schollies to offer this year than usual. But the kids we have signed and are targeting don’t appear to be anything special this year. What’s the deal? Are we dealing with the fallout from last year’s 6-6 season? I would have thought with the stellar year we had in 2018 that we would have been able to get a much stronger class.

And before anyone starts griping to me about “rankings don’t matter”, consider this: no team in the modern recruiting era has won a national championship without a top 10 recruiting class.

Let’s take it down one rung further. Since 2011, no PAC 12 team without a top 30 four year average recruiting ranking has won the PAC 12. Not one. Utah hasn’t even had one top 30 recruiting ranking in it’s last four years.

This year we were operating with a total class whose recruiting ranking was 37, if averaged out over the recruiting cylces from 2015,2016, 2017, and 2018. Our best four year cycle ever. Yet, we couldn’t beat Washington on either attempt. If you add in 2019’s current ranking and drop off 2015 for the most recent four cycles, our average is a 44 ranking in recruiting. Not a good trend at all.

If we take at face value our current recruiting ranking, it paints a picture that we are not yet competitive enough from a talent level to truly compete for a PAC 12 Championship. Ugh. 

[Utesbyfive]

Once again, the recruiting rankings count quantity of players to determine things. We’re only gonna have about 13 scholarships available.

Looking at the overall rank does NOT reflect how well we’re doing.

[Dwight89]

And yet, that does nothing to invalidate any of my points above. Nothing at all. 

 

Also, as a reference our ranking by quality in 2019 is 51, hardly anything to sniff at. 

[Utesbyfive]

Does any of that account for the transfer of Manny Bowen? No? Quit reading too much into it. The 2020 class will be make or break. And if a top 10 recruiting class is what you’re wishing for, why don’t you s**t in one hand, because that’s all you’ll ever get out of that wish.

[Dwight89]

Lots of teams benefit from highly touted transfers. Wash. 

Im not necessarily wishing for a top ten recruiting class. But it’s become more and more apparent to me that without one we’ll never compete at the highest level. This makes it hard to be a fan of a team like Utah. 

What gives me hope is that we can slowly build the brand into a perennial top 25 team, including recruiting. Stanford did it. Oregon did it. We can too. We’ve got the coaching in place. Just need to step up the recruiting. 

[Utesbyfive]

If you’re hell-bent on being negative, so be it.

[Dwight89]

Have I said anything that is factually untrue? If not, how can it be construed as anything other than realism? Facts are facts. 

[Utesbyfive]

As OnlyU pointed out below, your set of facts is an incomplete picture. Anyway, there’s nothing more really to be said about this, that OnlyU didn’t say. Cheers.

[Dwight89]

The facts don’t paint an incomplete picture at all. Quite the opposite in fact. Sure we have good guys coming in. That’s awesome. Unfortunately the recruiting experts think they aren’t as good as 50 other FBS teams. Need moar talent if we are going to improve. 

[User Suspended]

SHM… 50% of coaching IS recruiting.  We DO NOT have the coaching in place.

[Stone]

“What gives me hope that we can slowly build the brand into a perenntial top 25 team, including recruiting.”

I guess it depends on what you mean by perennial top 25 team, but Utah essentially already is a perennial top 25 team. Can we hope for a National Championship? Sure. Are the odds good, no. That is a reality. If you are only a fan of teams that win top ten recruiting championships, being a Utah fan probably is not for you. Don’t worry, there are plenty of bandwagon fans that love the Yankees, Lakers, and Alabama. You’re not alone.

Again, I am not saying we shouldn’t *hope* for improvement, but you need to be realistic. Only a handful of teams have any realistic shot at an NC (going strictly by Vegas odds). The path is a long slog; a chipper. Utah does not have the history and advantages of the college football blue bloods. Why should Utah win a championship in the modern era before UCLA or even Arizona State? They have been getting much more revenue for much longer then Utah and have climate advantages for recruiting. What about Texas A&M? Very few schools have won a NC in the last 30 years, and there are many, many schools that have not won it that have been getting loads more $$ and continue to get loads more $$ than Utah; they also play in densly populated areas with more access to talent. 

Look, I agree that we want an upward trajectory, but we need to be realistic. Further, the results on the field do demonstrate an upward trajectory. Recruiting may not show an upward trajectory (based on the metric you selected), but that is far less important than the results on the field. Sure, the two metrics may have strong correlation, but if we went strictly off of that, then Utah should not have won the south division this year and been a bobbled catch away from the Rose Bowl. So the recruiting metrics are fine, but they do not tell the whole story.

[User Suspended]

“Recruiting may not show an upward trajectory (based on the metric you selected), but that is far less important than the results on the field.”

^ this is what I hate. The, hey, we did pretty good on the field to don’t sweat the recruiting..

Why can Ute fans easly fantasize about getting to the Rose Bowl next year but get limp wristed when demanding even a top 4 recruiting class in the PAC12??

It’s bizarre. Maybe because Utah has never done well at recruting so Utah fans simply don’t feel it’s possible? Guess what, it’s possible and kwhitt must be accountable of recruiting.

 

 

 

 

 

[Stone]

Do you disagree with the point you quoted? Would you rather have recruiting rankings over on-the-field result rankings? I am not saying that recruiting rankings are unimportant, I am simply saying that actual results are more important. If you hate that, then I guess you care more about recruiting rankings than the results of games. To each their own.

[Dwight89]

Here’s my point with that. Whitt outcoaches his recruiting ranking. Does more with less. If we can get our recruiting to top 25 territory, then I think Whitt can push hard for consistent Pac 12 dominance. 

Of course I agree with you on your other points. However, my counter to your seeming negativity is: why I’m the hell am I a fan if I don’t want to compete at the highest level? I refuse to resign to the status quo. Otherwise, what is the point? We have to push for more. Always. 

[Stone]

Agree, we want to always improve over the long term. I am not concerned with short term blips, so long as the long term is on the right trajectory. Similar to stocks or companies – there are bad quarters, even bad years, but the bigger issue is long term trajectory. I am not satisfied with losing the Pac12 championship, but I am happy that Utah got there because that is an upward trajectory from the past. It is possible to be happy/postive and still want more. Keep pushing for more, but look at the longterm trajectory, don’t panic about short term market moves.

[Utah]

The better thing to look at is avg stars per player. Our avg stars per players puts us at a borderline top 15-35 team, which we are.

Take BYU as the other example. They are close to us in class ranking, but their avg stars is with Lousinana Monroe and other mid level G5 teams.

[Dwight89]

Two points on that. 

1. That doesn’t invalidate any of the points in my first post, unfortunately. 

2. Our ranking this year, by quality, is 51. Not good. 

Im not trying to dispute your point. But, I think we do need to take our head out of the sand a little bit. This year’s recruiting class kind of stinks, both from a quality and a quantity standpoint. Why? What needs to change? 

[cjd1]

Are they grading our new punter 2 stars?

[Dwight89]

Yes, but they’re grading everyone else’s punters as well. Wash. 

[Onlyu]

Maybe take a look at the class like this…

Rex Jordan, Malone Mataele, RJ Hubert, Terrell Perriman, Bryant Pirtle, Sione Lund, Andrew Mata’afa, Braeden Daniels, Paul Maile, Blake Kuithe, Jackson Cravens, Manny Bowen, Donte Banton, Micah Bernard, Semisi Lauaki, Falcon Kaumatule, Sataoa Laumea, Ben Lennon, Aaron Lowe, Johnny Maea, LaCarea Pleasant Johnson, Keaton Bills, Marist Talavou and more to come. A good number of high 3 star and 4 star guys on that list.

Losing 11 scholarship guys but adding the above (1st year guys) should make you feel a little better.

Add an additional Grad Transfer or two…Will probably also have some attrition with medical retirements and transfers opening up a few more spots.

Moss, Anae, Blackmon and Fotu returning (90+% today).

Hire the right OC and flip Nacua (Not Harding).

Preseason Top 20 ranking (Highest ever) and favorable schedule in 2019.

Next year becomes the significant recruiting year after what should be two successful years in a row. We lose a lot after next year…but can promise more playing time to big time recruits as well. Plenty to fix, plenty to work on, plenty of questions but next years class is much more important than this years. Plenty of depth with the available players above and some future stars in that group.

[Dwight89]

Some good perspective. I think this is the only argument that makes me feel better. Kick ass in 2019 and we will have a strong 2020 class based on 2018 and 2019 results. 

[Utesbyfive]

Thank you. I haven’t been worried about next year at all. I think it’s our time to win the Pac-12, esp. if the above four return. Our best chance yet, if we can keep some of our four best players healthy until the CCG.

[BD]

Moss, Anae, Blackmon and Fotu returning (90+% today).

I was having a crappy day until I read this. Let’s hope that 90% rises to 100%!!

[Redblood]

Onlyu, as always your perspective is incredibly helpful. My big concern for 2019 is OL. Hard to see that group not regressing let alone improving. It’s also hard to smell Roses without a really good OL. What’s your take there?

[Onlyu]

I think we’re in pretty good shape with the O-line honestly. We lose 3 quality guys but have more real depth than ever and plenty of game experience. Some young kids but big and very talented. If they develop as expected we’ve got some massive size up there. The great thing is they’ll have 8-10 guys in the mix so that group will have to fight for every scrap they get. My biggest concern by far is Saftey…I like Burgess a lot but not sold on Phil as a starter…role player and back up yes…Blackmon to Saftey gives you a ball hawk close to the level of Marcus but nowhere near as physical as the past 3 or 4 guys back there. Some young guys there too that could have an impact but that’s where you’ll see a grad transfer or a flip IMO.

WR is next but only because we underperformed some there this year. Covey, Thompson, Enis, Simpkins, Mariner, Nacua (rarely healthy), Dixon, Boyd, Perriman all back. You think we’d be improved there just with another year of experience. Thompson’s injury hurt that group along with Boyd’s immaturity (gets frustrated and pouts). Thompson has the skill set to be a real Pac-12 #1. Tore a pec in Jan and had the hamstring all season. Hasn’t had a lot of practice time and if he gets that he quickly becomes a big time guy.

[EagleMountainUte]

How is Rex Jordan doing?  I heard he was the best DE on the team until he went down. 

[Onlyu]

Love Rex Jordan…has a chance to be really good but a lis franc can be tricky. If he gets back and stays healthy he’ll be in the mix for sure. You’re already 3 deep with big time experience there as it is though. Anae, Tupai, and Tufua so it will be interesting to see how and where he fits in.

[cicampbe]

Wait… 90% chance that Moss, Blackmon, Anne and Fotu return next year? Really? Did I miss something?

[sweetgrass]

Utah’s recruiting last 5 years:

2019 – 85.14 avg
2018 – 85.69
2017 – 86.04
2016 – 84.45
2015 – 84.65

if you remove the Aussie Punter from our recruiting rankings and it Utah’s highest avg recruiting class ever at 86.08 (I full recognize that you can’t remove the punter because other schools punters/average are factored in, but it hurts Utah more than most because its such a small class and weighs more heavily)

I disagree with your point that Utah’s class is below average this year.

Does anyone believe Utah can ever recruit in the top 20? I certainly don’t. I can’t even imagine Utah being able to recruit more than the middle of the conference.

[Dwight89]

Couple points: our average rating puts us at 51. Better than the overall ranking, but still quite pedestrian

second, if we can’t recruit a top 20 class, ever, then we likely won’t ever win a Pac 12 championship. So I think we HAVE to have that as a goal to work towards.

[EagleMountainUte]

Utah came damn close to winning it this year. It takes a lot of IF’s but I can’t help wonder if one Moss was healthy Utah runs away with the title and a bid to Pasadena. 

[sweetgrass]

I’d counter argue that Utah was right there in 2018 without their starting QB, RB, Slot receiver and best LB. If UW had those same injuries how good would they have been?

[Stone]

Agreed. Utah was a flukish bobbled pass away from winning the Pac12 this year. Recruiting rankings would have never predicted that. They never would not have even predicted Utah to win the South Division (maybe 3rd or 4th place … maybe). 

[Dwight89]

Ifs and buts are for TDS fans. We didn’t win the Pac 12. So what about a fluke play? We had tons of chances to score against Washington after that. But we couldn’t. 

[Stone]

You’re ignoring the point. The point is that recruiting rankings would not have predicted the results. And that Utah was very much in the running for a championship. Utah was very much in that game; they didn’t win, but they were hardly outclassed or out of UW’s league (metaphorically). Again, recruiting results would not have predicted that. Thus, recruiting rankings have strong correlation with results, but are not determinative. Thus, more important to look at the trajectory of the team and less important to worry too much about recruiting rankings. Don’t get me wrong, it is great/vital to have strong recruiting, but it is an inexact science. I definitely want better recruiting, same as you.

Realistically, I think Utah’s goal should be a top 25 recruiting school, but that may never happen; Utah may always be a top 35 recruiting school that has to coach the players up. Some would say that I don’t dream big enough and that if we had a different coach, we could pull in top 10 recruiting classes – to that, I say, sure, maybe. But I think the odds are that Utah will never have that type of coach or pull, ever. The type of coach that can make Utah a top 10 recruiting school is not the type of coach that would stick in Utah – the first year Utah pulled off that type of recruiting class, the coach would be hired away by a school with more money and prestige. I might be wrong, but I think history provides a good indication that I am not. And we should not forget the downside risks associated with drastic changes. We may be unhappy with things now, but they can get a lot worse than winning the division and being very competitive in the championship game. 

[GreatNorthernUte]

If you don’t believe that Utah can ever recruit a class any better than the middle of the conference (so #6), then I say those are pretty low expectations.

Forget the national rankings and focus on the conference. The only teams that we will likely never out-recruit in any given year are USC and Oregon. Just not going to happen. But can Utah absolutely never ever put together a #4 or #5 class at the right time? Never ever get past one of Stanford, UCLA, or Washington in one of their down years? We just resign ourselves to the #6 ranking in the best of times?

Let me be clear: I am not saying it’s likely to happen soon. But it should absolutely be an expectation. Otherwise, we are saying we are happy with the occasional South title and no Rose Bowl. Unless we recruit much much better on offense, that’s probably the ceiling. If you’re fine with that, that’s completely okay. But I suspect most of us on this board are not okay with that.

The head coach of this program should be accountable based on above average but reasonable recruiting expectations. It’s one of many many metrics that the head coach should be accountable on. Whit does a great job on many metrics. I don’t think he has done a great job on recruiting offense.

[Stone]

I agree with your high-end expectation, and I hope that Utah can sometimes be in the top 3 in the conference recruiting rankings. But I also acknowledge that Utah could very easily be close to the bottom 3 in recruiting rankings. Aside from coaching and current trajectory, Utah does not have a clear, inherent advantage in recruiting over schools such as Colorado, Cal, Arizona, or Arizona State. I would say that, based on metropolitan size / campus, Utah does have an advantage over Oregon State and Washington State…but there are some recruits that may actually prefer a college town environment like that over a place like SLC. 

My point is, while there is room to improve, there is room to drop, so I do not necessarily see #6 as underachieving. I would love to see some years where Utah out-recruits Stanford, UCLA, and UW, but I do not expect that. There are recruits every year that choose Utah over those schools, and that is a victory, but it will be tough to have an entire class that ranks higher than a class from those schools. I hope it can happen, but I am not down about it if it does not happen.

[User Suspended]

^ this

It’s bizarre how so many Ute fans give kwhitt a pass on recruiting. I think kwhitt knows he has a free pass on recruiting.

[crazyute]

It’s bizarre how much of a cry baby you are.

[User Suspended]

Let me put it this way. Utehub fanboys would not accept the notion that Utah could never win a Rose Bowl because “it’s just the way it is” at Utah. Fans would demand major changes.

YET Ute fanboys castrate themselves and accept that Utah hould never be expect to recruit a top tier class… no accountability for coaches, so why even try. Again bizarre. 

[crazyute]

You’re still crying…. very bizarre.