Here is my position-by-position thoughts.
QB – (Net +) I hope we have a healthy Rising and I “hope” that Johnson is our backup and that we have a package where he plays 4-5 plays a game.
TE (Net even) I know we lose Kincaid but we get Kuithe back and I hope Yassmin continues to make progress. Also, I hope Jacobsen is in the mix as a freshman.
WR (Net +) We lose two seniors. However, neither caught a lot of passes. I think Parks and Vele will be better because of experience and this Matthews kid sounds like he could see some action.
Oline (Net even) We lose some guys but overall have a very experienced line with some new players coming in.
Dline (Net +) We have some young talent that I believe will be better because of experience. We also have added Fano and others to the mix.
LBs (Net even) We lose Diabate and gain the kid from Stanford. Barton should be improved.
DBs (Net even) We lose an All-American but have a lot of studs, a talented transfer, great recruiting at the position. This could be a Net+ by the end of the season.
Overall I think we will be a better, more experienced team in 2023. However, I am not sure our record will be much better because of the very difficult schedule we have.
Go Utes!!!
I will definitely enjoy the season. It starts in late August.
Very good and reasonable breakdown I think, but IMO the defensive backfield will be a net gain. Yes it sucks to lose Clark but we have some studs coming in and I think the value of getting Nate Ritchie back can’t be overstated. I think he and Bishop are going to be an absolute two headed monster and Ritchie being back allows us to do some different things with Vaki and others. I’m very excited for that group next year.
The only other thing I have to add is that I think it is obvious that the coaches have succeeded in getting the tools you can’t teach: size and speed. We have some monsters coming in in both categories. Fano is getting a lot of press lately but Lomu, as far as ratings are concerned, is very nearly as highly regarded. He was a huge get and getting both those guys in the same class is massive. On the speed side, Stanley, Randle, Matthews, Snowden, and Blocker have all been hyped as lightning quick. Pair that with a QB of the future in Johnson who is also reportedly very fast and we create matchup problems all over the field. Might have to go through a few growing pains next year but all the tools are there.
Should be fun!
Lose an all American, replace them with a non all American…. net even?????
wow.
I think we’ll be better overall (just losing TT and Hubert make that a virtual guarantee) but saying we’ll be just as good at DB and TE when we are losing all time greats at those positions is absurd.
For the secondary (DBs, safeties), CP3 was definitely a star/AA (let’s say a score of 5) but the others were 3s. With development, recruiting, etc. those on the field may be several ‘4s’ this year (my own rating, but akin to stars) that as a whole, could add up to a better overall position group. Will CP3 locking down one side of the field and/or getting 6INT be hard to replace? Yes.
Replacing Kincaid with Kuithe, who could be an AA in his own right (any probably would have split the catches/assignments and Kincaid maybe isn’t AA), is probably a net even and with Yassmin developing further (take those brick hand drops with his spectacular catch and runs + blocking) and I could see a net positive there too for the position group.
We aren’t replacing Kincaid with kuithe. That is just not true. We already had kuithe and Kincaid (and Yassmin) on the same team for hells sake. How is subtracting the best of those three (plus the best blocker who’s name I’m forgetting) adding up to a net even??? Seriously, is that koolaid you are drinking or liquid crack?
As to your point about the DBs, there is just no way in hell they improve enough to replace Phillips. You saw how bad the secondary was without him in the RB. Vaughn will improve, and he has loads of potential, but he won’t get there until the end of the season best case scenario. The DBs are going to have growing pains.
I think you are talking about Kendall as TE blocker? We run a lot of jumbo, so sure. But McCain also will be in the mix and we hvae some more depth at TE.
Someone forgot Kuithe was injured in the 4th game. He was Rising’s favorite target and Kincaid was backup.
Florida – Kuithe 9/105, Kincaid 2/29
SUU – Kuithe 3/22, Kincaid 7/107 (because it was an FCS team)
SDSU – Kuithe 5/64, Kincaid 3/38
ASU – Kuithe 2/15 (hurt), Kincaid 4/66
The Kincaid had a 3/17 game against Ore St., 4/67 @ UCLA, then the breakout 16/234 vs USC. 7/56 @ WSU, 4/35 vs Stan, 11/99 @ Oregon, 5/102 @ CU …
Of course Kincaid had an incredible year. But he was 1B to Kuithe 1A. So we get Kuithe back, Yassmin may make strides (is a rugby beast, saw some incredible glimpses of it).
I stand by the stance that a position group can be better overall even while losing an All-American.
For the DBs alone, maybe. For the secondary (including the safeties), I think it will take some time, but by the end of the season, sans injuries, we have a better unit than 2022. Remember how CP3 came in as a 4*? Well, we have another recruit in the same position. Plus what we already have. And another transfer…
One gripe I do have is that the top tacklers were in the secondary this year. I think the best defenses, the LB should have the most tackles.
Yeah… I’m not the one that forgot Kuithe was on the team last year. That was everyone above my initial post. He was already on the team, and played, having him next year doesn’t count as replacing Kincaid when he was already here in the first place.
I know Kuithe was Risings favorite target early on, that doesn’t make him a better player, and he certainly is not capable of having the same effect as Kuithe/Kincaid did together. The argument that our TEs aren’t going to get worse next year is indefensible.
This past year we had two elite level tight ends, and one guy that was capable of explosive plays, but also had terrible hands at times.
This coming year we will have ONE elite level tight end that will almost certainly not be as athletic as he was this past year. Unless he pulls off a miracle, he is likely not going to be 100% Kuithe. One is less than two. I didn’t think I would have to explain that but apparently I do. Yassmin will not come anywhere near replacing what Kincaid brought to the table… and EVEN IF HE DID, who would replace what Yassmin brought to the table last year as the third tight end? Mcclain? There is ZERO reason to believe he has what it takes to contribute on a consistent basis.
and yes, Kendall is gone as well. Our best (maybe best ever) lead blocker.
Look, I can’t really count Kuithe as having produced much this year due to his injury. He had 17 receptions for 204 yards and 3 TDs. He is more of a receiving TE. Kuithe blossomed in 2019 with 34/602/6 (receptions/yards/tds). He was PAC12 2nd team, PFF All-American 3rd team. 2020 was weird, but he led the team in receptions and was again PAC12 2nd team. 2021 he had 50/611/6. Again PAC12 2nd team.
Kuithe projected as a 4th rounder this year (even coming off injury), but chose to return (again).
Kincaid certainly is probably a better package of size, blocking, and receptions (caught just about everything his way). But if Kuithe plays this year, they would have split a lot more receptions, yards, TDs. Kincaid’s 2019 season was 44/835/8 at San Diego. 2021 was 36/510/8 with PAC12 honorable mention. Of course, this year, he was the MAN with 70/890/8, leading the nation in TE reception yards and getting PAC12 1st team and PFF All-American 2nd team.
Kincaid projects as a 2nd rounder this year, rising from 3rd/4th projection last year.
For this year, you could say we started off with
TE-Y Kincaid | Kendall (btw, was also FB, so split and was mostly a blocker) | Pututau
TE-U Kuithe | Yassmin | McClain
but in reality, most of the year, we played
TE-Y Kincaid | Kendall (again, sometimes more FB/lead blocker lining up at TE)
TE-U Yassmin | McClain
In 2023, we probably start (and hopefully have most of the year)
TE-Y Kuithe | Pututau
TE-U Yassmin | McClain
some others we’ll see – James Allemann, Isaac Vaha, Deven Johnson, Hayden Erickson. But depending on injuries, we won’t need to go past the 2/4 deep at TE.
So yeah. Net even? probably. Kuithe should replace what we saw from Kincaid this year. Yassmin replaces what he AND Kuithe did this year. Hopefully a lot more out of Yassmin (like catching most of the dang balls). His YAC are insane from his rugby mentality. Hopefully OL and some other TE steps up as more of a blocking end. Depending on player development, maybe we see more.
Not a hill I’ll die on, but not a ridiculous stretch like you make it out to be. There’s only so many targets to TE and hopefully the WR corps is a little better as well, so we can spread it out after power runs with JJ, Curry, and Glover in the jumbo package. Hopefully Kuithe and Yassmin both get all conference honors (1st/2nd for Kuithe, honorable for Yassmin [but probably not]).
and if Kuithe gets hurt again (pretty likely given the number of touches he likely gets next year)? There is no way you can possibly look at the TE group as a whole and suggest that next year’s group is even close to even with this last year’s group.
The TE position group is absolutely worse off without Kincaid.
The fact that anyone cares to try and argue otherwise is unconscionable to me.
Ok
If Rising isn’t ready to go or gets injured again, it’s unconscionable to argue that our qb group is net +
If JJ gets hurt, it’s unconscionable to say or RB room isn’t trash
We’ve been spoiled the last several years. TEs as our leading receivers? Sometimes 2?
Looking forward to an awesome year. Could he the best team ever but also hardest schedule ever. We’ll see. Glad this kids are playing for our entertainment. Hope they stay healthy and a few plays go our way. That may be the difference between an 11-1 or 8-4 season.
You aren’t arguing the same thing I argued. Either you don’t get it (or much of anything else) or you are being obtuse. I didn’t take issue with his rating of the QB situation going forward, and he didn’t attempt to rate the RB group.
Furthermore, neither of those two groups lost their best player this offseason (TT was effectively lost before this most recent season ever started.
If Rising gets hurt the QB room would be in more or less the same situation they were put in when he got hurt this past season. You cannot say the same for the TE room because there is no more Kincaid to replace Kuithe’s production.
We are talking about the TE group… a group that LOST ITS MOST PRODUCTIVE MEMBER FROM THIS PAST SEASON AND IS THEREFORE DIFFERENT GOING FORWARD.
The QB group did not lose their highest producer. The results of a rising injury this coming year would be essentially the same as they would have been this most recent season.
We are talking about the progression/regression of position groups from one season to the next.
The TE group is losing Kincaid. Without Kincaid, losing Kuithe to injury will CRUSH our offensive production. Last year the TE group was able to continue producing at a high level after Kuithe got hurt because Kincaid is arguably the better of the two players. We won’t have that luxury next year. How the hell is that so hard to understand?
We saw what happens to our offense when Kuith and Kincaid are gone. Rising tries to do everything by himself, gets hurt and we are effed. Without Kincaid on the roster, the chances of this happening again (having an offense without Kuithe or Kincaid) are essentially doubled.
There is no Kincaid to replace what Kuithe brings when he goes down.
In how many other ways do I need to say this in order for you to understand the simple math of the situation.
1st, I was being sarcastic because …
2nd, you have the inability to rationally (and tactfully) make a point and deny that others can have other opinions. It doesn’t help to counter data with comments that an opinion is unconscionable.
3rd, you lose credibility when you claim Kuithe can be counted as part of our TE group for 2022 then say “TT was effectively lost before this most recent season ever started” – he was our leading rusher for the year and had good games at the beginning and end, having 115 yards against UF and 180 against Stanford. Was he out of shape? yes. Did he turn out to be a toxic distraction? yes
4th, we can’t assume injuries. Each year is different. Sure, it was great having Kincaid as 1B to Kuithe 1A and when he was hurt, became 1+. Kincaid would not have had the year he had without Kuithe going down.
5th, “We are talking about the TE group… a group that LOST ITS MOST PRODUCTIVE MEMBER FROM THIS PAST SEASON AND IS THEREFORE DIFFERENT GOING FORWARD.” – yeah, we lost Kuithe, our most productive TE from the last 2-3 seasons (most productive receiver period for 1 of those) for most of 2022 (conference) but he’s back.
6th, you seem to not understand that the average skill (or aggregate, however one wants to put it) can go up for a group while losing 1 superstar. That’s the arguments made – that it’s possible the TE and CB group in aggregate might be better in 2023 even with the loss of Kincaid and CP3. Sometimes groups or teams are better playing together than having 1 star with a bigger dropoff to the 2nd guy. It’s great to now have better depth and good to great players in the 2-3 deep.
My opinion: For the whole year, I think Kuithe + Yassmin + McCain in 2023 will be better than Kincaid + Yassmin in 2022. I don’t fully count Kendall because of his split FB/TE role. I know you disagree with that.
Of course, our guys have to be healthy. I expect further development as well from Yassmin and McCain.
Why are we arguing about perhaps the best TE position group in the country (regardless of if 2023 will be better, same, or decline from 2022)? The coaches will get them ready, Ludwig will use the weapons, and it’ll be fun.
agreed. Just look at how the LB group got hit early this past season when Lloyd is gone. I expect something similar with the DBs
What about Running Backs? I say potential net downside losing Bernard, but JJ has such a bright future and hopefully Glover and Curry can fill in the backup role.
I did forget RBs. This is a tough one because we do lose Bernard. Losing TT is probably a good thing at this point. I think Jackson has proved that he can be the go-to guy. Glover needs to improve. It might come down to how much Curry give us.
You forgot Special Teams, which I PRAY is a Net +++ with the 5-star kid coming in and the transfer from CU. I hope to see us kick the ball into the end zone the first play vs Florida – I’ll laugh when RES erupts in applause lol
I agree with ProudUte and KoolWhitt with the overall assessment.
I get the angst about the loss of Phillips and his spot will take a step back. However the time spent to resolve the slot corner, the addition of the new CBs, return of Ritchie and the growth in the group will offset that loss. Realize the system gets some of the credit for the success of our stars in the secondary throughout the years.
I expect the TE group to get better because we can develop the 1,2 punch we had in 2021. Kuithe was missed and the duel threat did not develop until very late in the year. He will step back into the production from Kincaid and Yassmin has now had the fire of the limelight create a new level of energy. Running with the ones from the start will recreate the duel punch.
The RB room, I expect, will have the problem of 2022 behind them, will start fresh and enjoy pure competation without weekly substraction. This is a very big improvement even with the loss of Bernard.
I expect the QB sitution will develop a more viable QB2, likely a situation that will get Johnson into a role in every game.
Most likely we will see overall improvement. However, I also see maybe the best improvement for the Pac next year compared to the years since we joined. Last year was a big jump, next year builds on that. We could have the best team in three years without winning the championship.
I think linebacker can be a big net positive. It might’ve been our weakest position group last year. Damuni is a big experience add, and Barton was continually getting better as the year went on. Medlock continues to improve and I believe we get Fotu back from his mission and he got plenty of playing time as a freshman and looked good. I hope the coaches really evaluate the backers and don’t just give past starters their job back because they started before (Karene)
I thought the same thing. It may end up being a good group for us. But, we will have to see how Medlock and other play when given the chance. I like Barton and Reid.
Every position group is going to be as good or better than 2022? Georgia and Alabama will be contacting Whitt to find out his secret so they don’t have to experience fluctuations anymore.
Vaughn, Vaki and JJ could be stars. Excited about Pepa too. Edge rush…sigh, we will be dangerous if we get front 4 pressure. Obviously QB play will dictate our 2023 potential. Who will lead us early season? Florida at home, Baylor and SC on the road all in the first 4 games. Have to start winning non PAC P5 games, not to mention starting the season better. Some of the next steps in our progression.
Got SC wrong, still have Florida and Baylor out of the gate.
Solid breakdown. My 2 cents from the coaches couch. If Utah is to contend for the P!2 Championship they need to do more than break even in key positions. My biggest concerns noted below are Edge, WR, and LB.
QB: Rising healthy by game #1. Johnson and Rose battle for QB2. Spring focus giving these guys reps.
RB: JJ keeps improving, Curry back is huge. Glover continues to improve. Randall and Mitchell could be in the mix.
Oline an Dline: improved
WR: who knows. TBD. Still no go to difference maker not an easy lock down for the good P12 teams. No WR coach does not help. Vele is no gong to magically get faster or more athletic in the off season. Maybe late Spring hold over from the portal comes in. Tough ask with no WR coach.
LB: Barton solid. Damuni good add. Someone needs to step up and challenge Reid for his spot.
DBs: always solid. Richie back, Snowden, Broughten Vaughn, Isbel, other-Shah and Scalley always have the DBs ready.
Edge: Utah needs someone to step up and be the edge rush force Utah is known for.
For WR, it is a question mark, but Vele has size (not too much speed and needs better route running to get open), Parks is improving, Mikey Matthews is a great get (but 5-10, so maybe slot receiver), and really Kuithe is more of a receiver than a TE. It will also depend on how these guys block. Enis mostly played to block, so a little loss there.
I’m excited about Miles Battle at CB (6-4 from Ole Miss) who should have immediate impact. CJ Blocker is 4*. Snowden 3*. Vaughn, Broughton, etc. – we’ll be ok
Edge – totally agree. We need another 10+ sackmaster
I am assuming Whitt is taking his time to get the right guy to coach WRs. Can’t imagine this is not ready to do for spring practice.
Fillinger back on the edge and another year will make a difference from what we had at the end of the year.
Tanute3 will be happy with the kicking game, we should be able to relax on kickoffs since so few of his kicks have been returned. We should kick FGs more often when it is ideal.
Yassmin may be physical enough to replace Kendall and without signaling a lineup change. What he lacks in route running he makes up with physical play after a catch.
However, depth is quite an unknown since we must account for a couple of injuries somewhere in the lineup.
On a positive note, so many of the players discussed came in pre conference championships. Whitt depends on development much more than recruiting stars. We really have not yet seen much of the recruiting bump on the field. Not accounted for is the surprise that often comes out of inventory. Also, the number of promising players transferring to improve playing time or get on the field is interesting. In years past they would see the field to sink or swim.
I agree with you on everything but linebacker. I think the improvement we will see from Barton will tip the scales big time. Having him on the field full time will be a huge improvement and the Stanford kid will also be an improvement. Diabate was pretty average in my book and took a long time to learn our system. He misread plays as often as he was in the right spots.
IMHO we have two and only two concerns next year (assuming Rising is healthy) 1) Can we generate a good pass rush with only 4 guys, and 2) Can we stretch the field in the throw game? Of course, these two things have significant ramifications for us in several other areas, but if we can accomplish these two things, then we will have a great year in 2023.
O-line will be a net + next year…and for the next few years IMO. We don’t have projects in that room any longer. We have real size, real athleticism, real depth and real talent. I expect that to be the biggest difference and helps us take the next step forward as a top program. This group is what I’m most excited to watch next year.
CB’s, LB’s and Safety’s will be strong as usual. DL will be improved and we will do a better overall job there. The defense should be outstanding.
Kicker will be much improved which means a lot for ST strength and coverage.
Plenty of options at RB and WR (expect to add 1-2 potential difference makers there). QB is set (fully expect Rising to be ready for camp). TE is in great shape at the top but need to add or develop depth.
9-3 +|- a game or two is my expectation based on how injuries affect us or other teams.
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