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  • 2008 National Champ
    Participant

    don’t be lazy 🙂

    (otherwise I’d have to sim EVERY team’s seasons to see how they all change as well)

    That’s a tough over to hit. Utah has only done so once since entering P5 competition (2019). If I was a betting person, I’d probably put a small wager on the under while rooting for the over. But Utah just isn’t a good bet for this year. Save the money and try to find an up and coming team that is underrated based on previous like 2023 Arizona (5.5 win over/under).

    Just from a betting – not fan – perspective, taking the over assumes the following:

    1. Risng and Kuithe not only return to All-Conference form but are healthy all season
    2. 3 “draftable” DB’s are replaced with similar or greater production
    3. 2 “draftable” O Lineman are replaced with greater production and the whole unit performs better
    4. Barton and L. Fano injury recoveries do not extend into the season and they are both able to return to immediate previous production
    5. Utah manages to win the usual one or two “what the heck” games that every team experiences each season. It is not a Utah only phenomenon. No one performs at peak effectiveness every time out. Otherwise Tiger Woods would have won every tournament he entered.

    Utah will have a very experienced team, similar to 2019, so playing 8 new opponents should tilt in their favor. The schedule isn’t overly daunting so schedule luck – catching the other team without key pieces – would also tend to lean in Utah’s favor. But without the five items I listed, along with overall improvement from the other returning players and “normal” injury rate.,, I wouldn’t risk my money on 10+ wins. And I’d challenge any of the people already claiming CFP appearances to show their betting slip.

    #210135

    In reply to: Eligibilty

    krindor
    Participant

    Here’s my understanding of our (loose) depth charts with eligibility remaining. Note that some players almost certainly won’t use all their eligibility though. Barton I think will go NFL, Bernard probably won’t be back in 2025 for a 7th year (4+COVID+RS+Medical)… but they will at least have the option

    Quarterback

    • Cam Rising (1 year)
    • Brandon Rose (4 years)
    • Isaac Wilson (4 years + RS)

    Running Back

    • Anthony Woods (2 years)
    • Micah Bernard (2 years)
    • Jaylon Glover (2 years)
    • Doodie Stanley (4 years)
    • John Randle Jr (4 years)
    • Mike Mitchell (4 years)
    • Charlie Vincent (1 year)

    Wide Receiver

    • Money Parks (1 year)
    • Dorian Singer (1 year)
    • Mycah Pittman (1 year)
    • Munir McClain (1 year)
    • Taeshaun Lyons (4 years)
    • Luca Caldarella (1 year)
    • Sidney Mbanasor (3 years)
    • Daidren Zipperer (4 years)
    • David Washington (4 years + RS)
    • Zacharyus Williams (4 years + RS)

    Tight End

    • Brant Kuithe (1 year)
    • Landon King (2 years)
    • Miki Sugutaraga (1 year)
    • Carsen Ryan (4 years)
    • Dallin Bentley (3 years)
    • CJ Jacobsen (4 years)

    Offensive Tackle

    • Spencer Fano (3 years)
    • Caleb Lomu (4 years)
    • Tania Togiai (2 years)
    • Isaiah Garcia (4 years + RS)
    • Falcon Kaumatule (1 year)

    Interior Offensive Line

    • Michael Mokofisi (2 years)
    • Jaren Kump (2 years)
    • Kolinu’u Faaiu (2 years)
    • Solatoa Moea’i (3 years)
    • Roger Alderman (4 years)
    • Alex Harrison (1 year)

    EDGE / Defensive End

    • Van Fillinger (1 year)
    • Conner O’Toole (1 year)
    • Logan Fano (3 years)
    • Kanious Vaughn (2 years)
    • John Henry Daley (4 years)
    • Jonah Lea’ea (3 years)
    • Ka’eo Akana (3 years)

    Defensive Interior

    • Junior Tafuna (1 year)
    • Keanu Tanuvasu (3 years)
    • Simote Pepa (2 years)
    • Tevita Fotu (2 years)
    • Vili Taufatofua (3 years)

    Linebacker

    • Lander Barton (2 years)
    • Karene Reid (1 year)
    • Levani Damuni (1 year)
    • Sione Fotu (3 years)
    • Hunter Andrews (4 years + RS)
    • Josh Calvert (1 year)

    Cornerback

    • Zemaiah Vaughn (1 year)
    • Keenan Johnson (1 year)
    • Smith Snowden (3 years)
    • CJ Blocker (4 years)
    • Cameron Calhoun (4 years)
    • Elijah Davis (3 years)

    Safety

    • Tao Johnson (3 years)
    • Jonathon Hall (3 years)
    • Nate Ritchie (3 years)
    • Alaka’i Gilman (1 year)
    • Briton Allen (1 year)
    • Jeilani Davis (4 years + RS)
    #209810
    stbone
    Participant

    I don’t doubt that this was the best group of 10 OL we have had. I think our problem lay in the fact that none of our starters was lights-out dominant (I still dream of Bolles and Bam stealing souls). I am hoping Fano/Lomu will develop into that.

    #209800
    ProudUte
    Participant

    It is way too early because we have not had spring practice yet and we know there will be more guys entering the portal and coming in from the portal before practice starts in late July. But, I love Utah football …

    Our best weapons

    Getting Kuithe and Rising back is great news. These two guys are All-Pac12 players with a ton of experience. If they remain healthy – amazing things could happen.

    Our starting three linebackers are All-Conference caliber players with athleticism and experience. I can’t imagine any team in the Big 12 with linebackers like these guys. (We did lose a lot of our backups to the portal, so there is some concern there.)

    Our tight end room has now become a strength again. Kuithe is back, we have added Ryan, and King is showing some improvement.

    As far as I know – our entire coaching staff is coming back. Continuity is a wonderful thing.

    Cautiously optimistic

    Our defensive line showed moments of greatness. But, we lost our star to the NFL. We do have a lot of experienced talent coming back. If Fano and Pepa become healthy, our Dline could be great.

    With the addition of Lyons – our receivers may be pretty good. Money Parks is a good wide receiver and if Pittman can ger healthy and live up to his potential – we may have the weapons we need to have a very good passing game. Also, keep in mind that Kuithe plays a lot of receiver. There are also rumors that we may get another receiver from the portal. I hope so because you need depth at WR.

    Our kicker and punter are back and both had a good season.

    Development needed but could be very good

    The offensive line lost its two best players. We have some good players ready to step in and some top recruits in the last two seasons. I hope these guys can develop into a cohesive group.

    We lost our best running back in Jackson. But, we have Bernard and Glover back. We brought in Woods from Idaho. We had some good reccruits from the 2023 class. Hopefully, these new guys can develop.

    Cornerback could be very good for the Utes if the recruits from 2023 step up (Snowden and Blocker). We have added Kenan Johnson from Georgia Tech. How quickly can he learn our system and be productive? Where will Tao play?

    Our backup QB situation is still a concern. We all saw what happened last season when we were not prepared with a backup QB. I love what I see from Isaac Wilson, but I would hate to see him thrown out there too soon. Is Rose our backup in 2024? Will we get the kid from Auburn? Is there someone else out there?

    We took a big hit, but …

    It is never good to lose two NFL draft picks at one position in the same year. Bishop and Vaki are studs. However, Scalley and Whitt have always done an amazing job of developing safeties. We have Ritchie and Hall coming back. Tao will likely move to safety and now we have Gilman from Stanford. It’s hard to imagine that we will be better, but for some reason, I am not terribly worried.

    Worst case for the 2023 Utes IMO – 8-4.
    Best case for the 2024 Utes – 12-0 (Thers is not a game on the schedule that we cannot win. In fact, we may be predicted to win them all. But, we have some serious development to do before we open the season this September.

    I will reserve any actual prediction until this summer when we know much more.

    #209787
    The Miami Ute
    Participant

    Charlie, UCLA this season is probably the second worst team in the PAC after Cal. And Cal beat them about a week ago in Pauley Pavilion. Stefanovic was the same Stefanovic we saw at Utah. He’s still a slow, mediocre outside shooter that turns the ball over too much. At least his degree will be worth something.

    I will say that one of the big takeaways of this season so far is how UCLA has stepped into an elevator shaft. They’re now 6-10, 1-4 in the Pac-12, and headed for one of their worst seasons in quite a while. Remember that this is a team that has made the Sweet Sixteen three seasons in a row and came within a last second shot to be in the Final in 2021. It’s not going to get easier for them once they move to the B1G.

    #209782
    Charlie
    Participant

    Unbelievable tonight. In ’78 I was in grad school at the UofA and watched my school beat UCLA in Tucson. At the time never expected to see my school beat UCLA, ever. Sitting in the student section in the McKale Center I was in awe. Almost 50 years later I was sitting in the Hunty watching my school go up 50 on UCLA. UCLA is not a good team this year but I was watching the second biggest loss in Bruin history, in awe.

    Stefanovic is maybe their best player and the crowd was less than kind. Awesome bounce back from last week. It was their first loss by double digits. They lost by 5 on the road at Oregon.

    #209767
    The Miami Ute
    Participant

    Utah is drubbing UCLA 73-35 with 6:24 left in the game. I’m at the game and, let me tell you, this UCLA team really, really sucks. Poor Lazar Stefanovic…he thought that he was transferring to an elite program and he walked into a raging dumpster fire. Not all change is progress.

    #209618
    2008 National Champ
    Participant

    It was going to be a 3 way rotation between Filinger, O’Toole and Elliss. Not sure it really matters who the starter(s) are with the way they are rotated. Van and O’Toole being out week 1 helped Elliss but he had popped the year before and was going to get plenty of reps even if everyone was fully healthy.

    Fano was the one who got the real bump in playing time due to the others being out.

    #209577
    RoboUte
    Participant

    “The question with Fano is if he can stay healthy”

    You’re convinced about the offense but you should be asking this question about the QB we’ll allegedly have next year.

    #209573
    Utah
    Participant

    Sure. Vaki was an absolute beast for two games for us. Versus Cal he ran for 158 yards.

    The next week we played USC. He ran 9 times for 68 yards and had 5 catches for 149 yards. Two amazing games.

    But he got figured out. After that:

    5 carries for 11 yards vs Oregon.
    No touches vs ASU.
    1 carry for -1 vs UW.
    4 carries for 10 yards vs Arizona.
    7 carries for 68 yards vs Colorado.

    I freaking love him for those two games. He was incredible, he gave us the pig farmer, we kicked USC’s ass once again.

    BUT…He played in 7 games and was elite in two, a nonfactor in 4 and solid in one.

    His production is replaceable. He’s a great player, but we will miss him defensively a lot more than we miss him offensively.

    And Elliss. 12 sacks. Wowza. He will be missed. But Fano is a star, just like Elliss. The question with Fano is if he can stay healthy. He was by far BYU’s best player but he got hurt. And for us, he had 3.5 sacks in limited action before he got hurt.

    I don’t think he will be as good as Elliss…at first. But he isn’t a big step back.

    Our biggest loss is by far Bishop. We can replace everyone else, or get close to replacing, but Bishop just did everything. That is our biggest worry.

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